The market dying?

[Tav_Behemoth]

In other words, what was once an hobby has become a boutique.

The hobby is & will remain that thing we like do with dice when we get together. Every roleplaying company could go out of business tomorrow, and I reckon we'd all go on playing until they pry the character sheets from our cold, dead hands.

Hite was arguing that the industry that serves the RPG market is going to become more like the wargaming hobby industry, which appeals to a smaller audience than it did in the heyday of SPI and has to charge more for each game as a result.

As others have pointed out, the arrival of electronic publishing has created an explosion of low-cost RPG material. Market diversification is a good thing; a healthy economy has room for both boutiques and thrift shops.

 

[Wormwood]

Hite was arguing that the industry that serves the RPG market is going to become more like the wargaming hobby industry, which appeals to a smaller audience than it did in the heyday of SPI and has to charge more for each game as a result.

That's what I thought. Thanks!

 

[Staffan]

Personally, I am expecting the announcement to be done at the GAMA Trade Show of the year in which it is to be released. Followed up by an extensive, intensive marketing ramp-up campaign (co-ordinated with Dragon/Dungeon) for a GenCon release.

You do know that they've (= Charles Ryan, boss of D&D) repeatedly said that they'll give one to two year's warning before releasing 4e. right?

 

[Maggan]

Take from that what you will...

Skarka is happy he is selling PDF:s?

/M

 

[Rasyr]

You do know that they've (= Charles Ryan, boss of D&D) repeatedly said that they'll give one to two year's warning before releasing 4e. right?

The way that I read it was that they would give that notice if possible. It is quite likely that things could happen that could cause that to change radically, such as with the decision to publish 3.5 two years earlier than it was originally planned.

Those same sort of circumstances could cause a shift in current plans or desires about announcing 4e.

 

[Hussar]

I've read something similar to this:

such as with the decision to publish 3.5 two years earlier than it was originally planned

numerous times whenever a new edition gets talked about. And it's true. 3.5 was released earlier than expected. But, to say that the same thing is likely for 4e ignores the reason for the release of 3.5 so early.

Yes, yes, sit down in the back, I know 3.5 was a money grab. Yes, that's quite likely true. But, it's not the only truth.

Another truth is that 3.0 had a number of problems. It did. Yes, you can house rule to fix the problems, but, that hearkens back to the 2e days when that's all we did all day long was add house rule after house rule to fix the mistakes that were being foisted upon us. One of the main points of 3.0 was that we weren't supposed to have to do that. But, 3.0 was a major overhaul of 20+ previous years of gaming. The code had lots of bugs. And the fans made it known. Website after website has 3e threads complaining, questioning and griping about this, that and the other thing in 3e. There really were many, many problems. While 3e was extensively playtested, it wasn't until it got into the grubby hands of gamers that it really got put through its paces. And 3.5 was the result. Why was it 2 years early? Sure, money is part of it. But the other part is that the rules REALLY did need to be fixed.

3.5 OTOH, hasn't seen the huge fanbased questioning that 3.0 did. Many of the mistakes in 3e got fixed in 3.5 and, as thread after thread will attest, most of the fans are pretty content with the system. For a 4e to come out early would be a really large surprise. There's no push for 4e to come out like there was for 3e. Not that people were demanding a new edition, but, by questioning and creating houserules after houserules, plus the massive amount of crap by 3rd party publishers that got tossed into the ring, at least in part because of the faulty mechanics of 3e, 3.5 really was needed.

I really don't see the same need for a 4e. Sure there are rules that could be fixed in 3.5. I don't deny that. But, looking at the rules threads and Sage questions and whatnot, the problems that most gamers seem to have aren't with core rules, but with expansions. If the core rules are reasonably solid, then a switch to 4e will have to be a massive improvement or people simply won't buy.

One thing the plethora of publishers has shown is that just pumping out a book with a particular stamp on it, is no longer a guarantee of sale.

 

[Psion]

In another thread, GMSkarka made the following observation:Take from that what you will...

My immediate reaction is that at least in part due ot a shift towards online shopping.

 

[Maggan]

My immediate reaction is that at least in part due ot a shift towards online shopping.

Good point.

/M

 

[wingsandsword]

One indicator of the health of the industry is the attendance at Gen Con and other conventions. I haven't heard any reports about the recent Gen Con, but I know last year or the year before, attendance was very high.

Does anyone have any hard numbers on attendance this year Vs last year and the year before?

http://forums.gencon.com/default.aspx?f=3&m=107665

25,106 attended Gen Con this year, a record.

I'm not going to believe the market is "dying" while the biggest convention in the industry is bigger than ever and having record attendance. Say it's "dying" to the tens of thousands of people in Indianapolis every summer. People love to predict Gloom & Doom, it's more dramatic than saying "everything's A-OK". We are all part of a hobby that thrives on drama, we pretend to be epic heroes, some of us are going to be overdramatic sometimes.

The economy might not be so great, leaving people without huge piles of disposable income, printing and production costs might be driving up prices, and many people may feel some satisfaction with their current D&D books (not a bad thing), but that's not the end.

We're also looking at this largely from a "d20 centric" viewpoint, this is a largely d20 message board. What were some of the big hits of the Con? Shadowrun 4th Edition, Mage: The Awakening, Serenity, all non-d20. What was the big d20 hit of the con, was there even one (Iron Heroes, maybe)?

d20 is no longer The Mandatory Choice in gaming, it's nice for a crossover market, and it's a good option if a game designer doesn't know system design well and wants a proven system he can pull off the shelf and focus on the setting.

I saw way too many little kids at Gen Con happlily gaming away to believe that we aren't attracting the young. Yes, many were playing minis games or card games, but in a few years they may well migrate to D&D (or other RPG's), and I saw lots and lots of parents with kids in tow. Gaming, as a hobby and industry, has been around for 30 years now, and that's a generation, and the children of gamers are now growing up and becoming gamers.

You say you aren't seeing kids getting involved with gaming? How often do you otherwise engage in recreational activities with pre-teens and teenagers who aren't relatives? If you're a thirtysomething your gaming group is not likely to notice a group of 13 year olds who picked up their first Players Handbook and are stumbling around to learn the rules and play their first games unless one of them is your son.

Some FLGS are closing? Well, how many are serious stores that are trying to make money and working hard at it, and how many are the result of some gamer going off and opening a store without any knowledge of how to run a business (and partly wanting the wholesale costs for themselves and hiring their friends to work there). The professionally run, well managed FLGS I know of are all doing excellently, one is even reporting that their sales are at an all-time high (and they've been around for 20 years).

 

[Buttercup]

I do think that the market may be shrinking in terms of people buying everything in sight, but I think part of that was due to the amount of material put out initially and buyers are becoming smarter.

I think you've hit the nail on the head. I'm much more selective these days, partly because I'm running out of shelf space, but also because I have a solid core colleciton of material, and now the only things I buy are the truly stellar products.