The market dying?

[Umbran]

I don't think a dying market could support them.

I don't think the high end of the market is a good indicator of the overall health of the market. That's like claiming you know the health of tha automotive market by looking solely at sales of Jaguars. The high end is supported by a specific subset of the market - those with money to burn. Since they have plenty of free cash, they'll keep buying when the rest of us aren't.

If you want to know how well things are really doing, you need to look at the whole market, or at least the midmarket.

 

[Rasyr]

In another thread, GMSkarka made the following observation:

Are you aware that, according to the latest sales figures (as reported in Comics & Games Retailer's September issue), RPG sales are have dropped from an average total weighted count of 119 units per store in October 2004 to 32 units per store in June 2005? That's a 73% drop over 8 months. 2004 as a whole wasn't too great to start with, either.

Ask anybody who works in the business....print RPG sales are plummeting.

However, conversely, PDF sales have been breaking records, month to month, for the past 3 years.

Take from that what you will...

 

[Greg K]

I have been selective about what I have bought since the release of 3.0. I only own 7 DND books (three of which of the core books). Of the four non-core books, only one is from WOTC and the other three are from Green Ronin.

There are two WOTC and four non-WOTC books that I was considering to buy, but I am holding off until ICE releases both "Something Wicked" and the "The Grimoire" upon which I will decide if I am going to make the complete switch to HARP.

 

[green slime]

i'm still buying.

just shelled out $90 plus shipping for a bunch of stuff.

Cheapskate.

 

[MonsterMash]

I don't think the high end of the market is a good indicator of the overall health of the market. That's like claiming you know the health of tha automotive market by looking solely at sales of Jaguars. The high end is supported by a specific subset of the market - those with money to burn. Since they have plenty of free cash, they'll keep buying when the rest of us aren't.

If you want to know how well things are really doing, you need to look at the whole market, or at least the midmarket.

This is an important point - if its correct that pdf sales are booming then it looks like the midmarket is getting the squeeze and its either occasional big ticket purchases or small scale stuff for most consumers. I'd guess that the price of gas is affecting most or all hobby and leisure markets in the US (lesser extent in Europe as we're less car bound and the high taxes on petrol keep the impact of oil price rises down).

 

[Dragonblade]

Talking about the D&D/d20 market specifically (I haven't a clue about other systems), 3E has been out for years now. The market is bound to shrink - everyone has tons of stuff already. I know I have - piles of it. I can't use it all (even just the WotC stuff!) There's nothing now that everybody needs.

It'll be like that until the next big thing, which I imagine will be 4E. Then every D&D player will buy a new PHB, most will buy a DMG and a MM, most of those will buy the next round of supplements... until 5 years later, everyone will be saying "Oh, the market's shrunk!"

WotC has the PHB 2 coming out next summer. I think its too early for them to even announce 4e. I predict they'll announce 4e in the Fall of 2006 and probably wouldn't release it until Fall of 2007. Just in time for Christmas.

 

[Crothian]

WotC has the PHB 2 coming out next summer. I think its too early for them to even announce 4e. I predict they'll announce 4e in the Fall of 2006 and probably wouldn't release it until Fall of 2007. Just in time for Christmas.

Gen con, everything in this industry of note happens around Gen Con

 

[Rasyr]

WotC has the PHB 2 coming out next summer. I think its too early for them to even announce 4e. I predict they'll announce 4e in the Fall of 2006 and probably wouldn't release it until Fall of 2007. Just in time for Christmas.

Personally, I am expecting the announcement to be done at the GAMA Trade Show of the year in which it is to be released. Followed up by an extensive, intensive marketing ramp-up campaign (co-ordinated with Dragon/Dungeon) for a GenCon release.

This short of a ramp-up would minimize its sales losses (it is pretty much a fact that when a new edition is announced, sales for the edition being replaced tend to die almost completely), and allow WotC to better control the release of information about the new version, while also keeping speculation to a minimum.

When they announced 3.5, it was done in the fall of year prior to its release, and there was a good bit of grumbling.

Gen con, everything in this industry of note happens around Gen Con

Not everything, just a good majority. This is because GenCon does happen to be the largest convention of gamers in the US. Thus, releasing at GenCon allows for a maximum of exposure with a minimal amount of effort.

 

[Bloodstone Press]

One indicator of the health of the industry is the attendance at Gen Con and other conventions. I haven't heard any reports about the recent Gen Con, but I know last year or the year before, attendance was very high.

Does anyone have any hard numbers on attendance this year Vs last year and the year before?

 

[Crothian]

Origins the numbers were higher this then last according to what I heard.