The Paranoid's Guide: Brief Thoughts on the Recent Timeline of the OGL

[Snarf Zagyg]

I posted, in another thread, my brief thoughts recently about how I wondered how this all went down at Paizo. And since then, being (by nature) somewhat oppositional, I started thinking ... if I was paranoid, and I was viewing things in the light most favorable to Hasbro, how would I view this?

What do we actually know? So far, we know that there was a leak of some kind of document- although we can't be sure if it's the final one, or if it's the bespoke one, or if it was the earliest draft used to make Hasbro look as bad as possible. We are reasonably certain that Hasbro is trying to change the licensing terms. We know that it didn't go out to all 3PPs (not to put Morrus on the spot, given the existence of NDAs, but I believe he's been pretty emphatic that he doesn't know about this). Moreover, we are aware that some prominent 3PPs (Goodman Games) and other partners of Hasbro (Critical Role) have been sitting this out.

We do know the following timing-
1. This matter first broke on "Roll For Combat" on January 4, 2023, when they discussed the leak (although it was apparently more of the FAQ). This started the community uproar, although it was mostly rubbished at the time. In other words ... if this was a purposeful leak, it didn't get the reaction whoever leaked it wanted. But recall the confidence of the hosts of the show that this was a well-sourced leak.
2. This continued with the leak to io9 (Gizmodo) that was published on January 5, 2023.
3. We see that is starts getting picked up by others at this point (January 6, 2023 is when Ginny Di posts her concern, for example). Still, there is no widespread outrage or 10 billion EnWorld Threads.
4. ....the weekend happens....
5. Then the full text of the alleged leaked OGL1.1(a) was posted on January 9, 2023. I believe that while parts had been posted before, this is when the full text was leaked. And everything starts blowing up. The community quickly goes to full outrage. ... and then, over the next few days, we here from multiple sources, including multiple prominent publishers, who ... are now commenting not on what they see, but on the rumors that are going around.*
6. Then Brian Lewis, who is the managing partner at Azora Law (who represents Paizo), sends out a request- that third party publishers join in on a new open license. Of course, Azora represents Paizo as well as other 3PPs. Which means ... that he would have been the one responsible for reviewing any agreements or discussions between Paizo and Hasbro, and that if any other companies contacted him directly, it would be possible to offer to represent them prior to further discussions. Which means attorney-client privilege, baby!
7. Finally, Paizo is able to announce (joined by others) the plan previously announced by Brian Lewis, to great acclaim, as the savior of the industry and open source.

Now, I'm not saying anyone was plotting here. Heck, everyone can (and should) make rational business decisions. But I have written that history doesn't repeat, but it often rhymes. When Hasbro moved to 4e, Paizo made the decision to release Pathfinder, and IIRC they sent people to playtest 4e and evaluate it even while they advancing their own game system. Which was a rational corporate decision for them. If I recall correctly (and I might not!), the past year has not been overly kind to Paizo- there were controversies about management issues there that didn't paint them in the best light, and PF2 hasn't been a rousing success - not a failure, but not a success.

Corporations are corporations; rational self interest explains a lot. Maybe Paizo was completely blindsided by all of this and has decided to ride to the rescue of the hobby. Or perhaps they are seizing (and exploiting) the opportunity provided by Hasbro's poor decision making.** I don't know- I truly have no idea. But I do know that I am deathly curious. Aren't you?


*I never said he was taking ibogaine, I said there was a rumor in Milwaukeee that he was. Which was true, and I started the rumor in Milwaukee. If you read that carefully, I’m a very accurate journalist.
-Hunter S. Thompson

**Given the heated emotions on the topic, I will reiterate that this speculation in no way condones the (allegedly) shabby treatment by Hasbro of the many incredible and hardworking 3PPs out there that have made the TTRPG community the amazing place it is.

 

[Ruin Explorer]

What about the leaks/rumours last year? Don't they count? They lead to WotC making that statement on Beyond on the 21st December:

OGLs, SRDs, & One D&D

We love the interest and passion the community has for D&D. We love D&D, too. So, when we see the D&D community concerned by rumors and misu...

www.dndbeyond.com

I think they should be included, because everything they said has been reflected in the OGL 1.1 people have received. Whatever was going on, it started last year.

 

[Snarf Zagyg]

What about the leaks/rumours last year? Don't they count? They lead to WotC making that statement on Beyond on the 21st December:

OGLs, SRDs, & One D&D

We love the interest and passion the community has for D&D. We love D&D, too. So, when we see the D&D community concerned by rumors and misu...

www.dndbeyond.com

I think they should be included, because everything they said has been reflected in the OGL 1.1 people have received. Whatever was going on, it started last year.

Oh, I think that from Hasbro's side this has been developing for a while! If this hadn't been fully vetted and run through multiple decision-making processes (NOT TO MENTION MULTIPLE PASSES THROUGH LEGAL) I would consider that beyond imbecilic. Which is also why I think Hasbro is unlikely to back down- soften? Sure. But not back down.

But I'm more interested in the leaks of the (NDA-protected) documents and the response from Paizo and others. To me, that's an interesting story. "Hasbro be monetizin'" is just "dog bites man."

 

[Ruin Explorer]

Corporations are corporations; rational self interest explains a lot. Maybe Paizo was completely blindsided by all of this and has decided to ride to the rescue of the hobby. Or perhaps they are seizing (and exploiting) the opportunity provided by Hasbro's poor decision making.

Why can't it be both?

There's no inherent contradiction between the two.

Also I feel like your article (which it kind of is) is really missing out on how bizarre WotC's silence has been and missing their comment on the 10th that there would be "News soon", and we're long past any internet definition of "soon" at this point. WotC could basically have shut this down at any point between the 5th and the 12th simply by issuing a statement disavowing the OGL 1.1. The fact that they didn't is tremendously important - indeed it's so key to the story that leaving it out makes it look like you skipped a whole bunch of stuff, and there's a sort of [SCENE DELETED] between 5 and 6.

There's also apparently been a leak of the OGL 2.0 FAQ, though I haven't had a chance to look into that further today.

 

[Snarf Zagyg]

Why can't it be both?

There's no inherent contradiction between the two.

Also I feel like your article (which it kind of is) is really missing out on how bizarre WotC's silence has been and missing their comment on the 10th that there would be "News soon", and we're long past any internet definition of "soon" at this point. WotC could basically have shut this down at any point between the 5th and the 12th simply by issuing a statement disavowing the OGL 1.1. The fact that they didn't is tremendously important - indeed it's so key to the story that leaving it out makes it look like you skipped a whole bunch of stuff, and there's a sort of [SCENE DELETED] between 5 and 6.

There's also apparently been a leak of the OGL 2.0 FAQ, though I haven't had a chance to look into that further today.

That you want a comment and that you think it needs to be based on the internet definition of soon doesn't matter for something like this.

Does this (and has this) effected Hasbro's stock? Nope.
Would anything have changed what Paizo was up to, given that their counsel already told us what he was going to do Wednesday (which means it was in the works before that)? Nope.

There are probably a lot of reasons for their silence- including understanding where the leaks came from, what their response is going to be (including possible litigation, and against who), and deciding how they want to present this and with what partners (who are the ones who haven't loudly been talking).

It's better to keep your mouth closed and be thought a fool than to open it and remove all doubt; I am sure that when they speak, and when they present their version of events, it will be carefully considered.

 

[Ruin Explorer]

That you want a comment and that you think it needs to be based on the internet definition of soon doesn't matter for something like this.

Really?

You're going to misrepresent my words like that? Really Snarf? That's how you want to go?

My point isn't "RUINY WUINY NEEDS A STATEMENT UWU", as you well know, so suggesting it is, that's shenanigans, sir! < waves hat exaggeratedly >

My point is WotC has chosen not to make any kind of statement except one saying it would be "soon" (which they made on one of the most internet parts of the internet - Twitter, by the way, so yeah the internet definition does matter), when it would behove them to shut this situation down.

Again they could have cut this off at the knees at any time they wanted. A statement as simple as "We have no intention of deauthorizing the OGL 1.0a" would have basically shattered this whole thing. Their silence here is incredibly unusual. Games companies (esp. video) often get into this kind of situation. Normally they deal with it pretty damn quickly with communication, either a mea culpa and some kind of climbdown, or a flat denial if it's something actually untrue.

(Though some companies, like present-day post-Carmack id software, have decided to go with drama and nonsense instead, before.)

Does this (and has this) effected Hasbro's stock? Nope.

hasbro stock - Google Search

Eh?

I mean, that's not a huge amount, yet, but this has only just started hitting the mainstream media literally today.

Would anything have changed what Paizo was up to, given that their counsel already told us what he was going to do Wednesday (which means it was in the works before that)? Nope.

Are you sure you're not confusing Brian and Erik Mona? I haven't seen any statement to that effect from Brian, but I did see one from Erik Mona.

As for "it wouldn't have changed anything", well, sure, no, because some of those companies actually received the OGL 1.1, didn't they?

Anyway, I thought you liked complete records - I still don't get why you're disregarding the stuff from December, and not noting WotC's part in this? Do you think it's irrelevant? I don't. You haven't really presented an argument as to why.

There are probably a lot of reasons for their silence- including understanding where the leaks came from, what their response is going to be (including possible litigation, and against who), and deciding how they want to present this and with what partners (who are the ones who haven't loudly been talking).

Given the OGL 2.0 FAQ or some version thereof has now leaked, it's becoming more clear what is going on at WotC. Again no denial from WotC that it's real - which if it isn't real, is certainly "a bad idea" on multiple levels.

Anyway, the main reason seems to be that they're desperately scrambling, and fundamentally incompetent.

The OGL 1.1 leaks, that throws the cat among the pigeons, who are now pecking the cat and chasing it around.

OGL 2.0 was apparently supposed to go out (though this is rumour), and that appears to be an attempt to basically double down but with minor concessions. Looks like they decided not to do that, though.

If they end today without a statement that's going to be truly astonishing, but I can't rule it out, because that they've apparent abandoned possibly 2 or more OGL attempts at this point.

Understanding where the leaks are coming from, by the way, is totally irrelevant to whether you make a statement, unless you intend that statement to be at odds with the facts in a way the leaks would undermine. You'd have a whole separate group of people doing that, not your PR guys or management, who would be doing any statements. There's absolutely nothing stopping you making a statement whilst they look for the leak. The same applies to litigation, and as a lawyer, you know that. If someone broke their contract, they broke their contract. It doesn't matter if you make a statement saying "This leak is bollocks" whilst looking for them or deciding what to do (again, unless the leak ISN'T bollocks).

 

[Snarf Zagyg]

Really?

You're going to misrepresent my words like that? Really Snarf? That's how you want to go?

I would recommend not doing that.

hasbro stock - Google Search

The stock is up over the last five days.
And the last month.
And, for that matter, today. But that's just random noise.

Understanding where the leaks are coming from, by the way, is totally irrelevant to whether you make a statement, unless you intend that statement to be at odds with the facts.

Not really. They just made their statement, and it's pretty much exactly what I expected (and parodied) before. In my opinion, there is very little that is interesting about this from Hasbro's perspective- this is entirely predictable.

But I would love to find out what happened in the past two weeks (well, it's probably been a month) at Paizo. I'm guessing we won't find out until the SOL on certain actions is over, though.

 

[Fendulum]

Paizo releases very little content for 5e (there's the stuff for Kingmaker and I think that's it?) and if I had to guess who the "large corporations" WOTC is angry at are, I'd guess Paizo tops the list. So I'm not at all sure that they had the kind of privileged access to info that this thread is suggesting, except insofar as they may have been told about it by other industry players.

 

[Snarf Zagyg]

Paizo releases very little content for 5e (there's the stuff for Kingmaker and I think that's it?) and if I had to guess who the "large corporations" WOTC is angry at are, I'd guess Paizo tops the list. So I'm not at all sure that they had the kind of privileged access to info that this thread is suggesting, except insofar as they may have been told about it by other industry players.

Possibly!

Or, if the original attempt really was to try and get at the people that Hasbro felt were making bank off of the OGL, then maybe they were one of the first to get a, "Hey, nice company you got there. Be a shame if anything happened to that license you were relying on," letter.

 

[Greg Benage]

On the one hand, I think this is plausible as far as conspiracy theories go. On the other hand, while Paizo would have plenty of incentive to leak, I'm not sure why they'd leak to one of their publishing partners. I'd like to think their tradecraft is better than that.