D&D 4E The Quest to use the Half-Elf's Dilettante (4e spoilers)

[Kraydak]

The problem is not that Careful attack is bad...

No. Part of the problem is that Careful Attack is, flat out, bad. Compared to a basic attack you want to use Careful Attack (roughly, depends on stats/gear/feats) if you need a 13 to hit, and even then the gain is marginal. Compared to, say, the (lower damage class) Fighter's Reaping Strike, Careful Attack is pathetically weak.

 

[Ulthwithian]

Well, doing a quick-and-dirty analysis of Careful Strike with a +2 to hit vs. a basic attack.... it's not looking pretty for the at-will power team.

Assumptions:

Dex of +3
A 20 always hits, and always crits.
A 1 always misses.
Weapon is a Longbow, d10 damage. Hunter's Quarry gives a d6 extra damage. Longbow d10 is maximized on a crit; HQ's die is not.

Assumed expected values of damage and to hit, the 'break even point' for Careful Strike vs. a normal attack is... 15.

That is, you must need to roll a 15+ with your attack (which would be a 13+ with Careful Strike) before the aggregate damage you would do with Careful Strike exceeds the aggregate damage you would do with a basic melee attack.

Now, consider that if Longbow has a +2 Proficiency modifier, and you have the aforementioned +3 Dex mod, your basic ranged attack should have a +5 to hit at first level.

Take all of this into consideration, and that means that unless you face an enemy with an AC of 20 or higher, you should use a basic ranged attack instead of Careful Strike.

That does not bode well for its utility, IMO.