The trends of 2005

[Corinth]

Nisarg: What reason, and evidence, do you have to believe that WOTC remains incapable of supporting two settings at the level established by the Realms?

 

[Nisarg]

That's become the dominant policy for WoTC ever since the creation of D20.. if you have two equally dominant lines, you're essentially competing against yourself, you have to produce twice as much just to break even.

If Eberron hits it big, they will cut down on FR.
If Eberron doesn't, they will cut down on Eberron.

Nisarg

 

[Turjan]

The real issue here is that WoTC cannot have two flagship lines: FR and Eberron. They WANT Eberron to succeed but success here means success in the much larger field of the MMORPG industry, and to a lesser extent how many people who get into the MMORPG actually get into buying D&D books because of it.

Well, if both "flagship lines" sell, where's the problem? There is always the way to diversify demand. The core setting is Greyhawk, and this is supported via the RPGA with adventures and cons in order to reach a different target group than the FR. Eberron will be tested on all of the existing marketing fields for the two traditional WotC settings. Films and MMORPGs are fine, but they are not vital for WotC itself. I suppose that WotC does not carry much of the risk if the MMORPG should fail (which is the default for most MMORPGs ).

You don't have to forget, either, that there are still two other settings from the competition in the pipeline . I thought one of them was originally supposed to be published next year. The current situation suggests that Eberron sold better than expected.

 

[Corinth]

That's become the dominant policy for WoTC ever since the creation of D20.. if you have two equally dominant lines, you're essentially competing against yourself, you have to produce twice as much just to break even.

If Eberron hits it big, they will cut down on FR.
If Eberron doesn't, they will cut down on Eberron.

This assumes that the conditions that existed when WotC assimiliated TSR and revived D&D remain in place. Company policy isn't necessarily reflective of the reality of the business environment, as there can be a lag time between changes in the environment and changes in policy to adjust to the new environment, so I ask again: What proof do you have that this is the case?

 

[Turjan]

That's become the dominant policy for WoTC ever since the creation of D20.. if you have two equally dominant lines, you're essentially competing against yourself, you have to produce twice as much just to break even.

I think a slight dent in this logic is that the Forgotten Realms and Eberron address the same market segment. Although there will be some overlap, Eberron addresses all those "FR haters" out there, while FR is more in line with the traditional fantasy crowd.

 

[Ankh-Morpork Guard]

That's become the dominant policy for WoTC ever since the creation of D20.. if you have two equally dominant lines, you're essentially competing against yourself, you have to produce twice as much just to break even.

If Eberron hits it big, they will cut down on FR.
If Eberron doesn't, they will cut down on Eberron.

Nisarg

I highly doubt that WotC would have created the setting contest just to get rid of FR. FR makes money. It will CONTINUE to make money. The name itself sells. No matter how good Eberron does(and I expected it to survive for a nice long time), they won't cut FR. That would simply be killing profit.

 

[MulhorandSage]

Well, one thing's for certain, in lieu of GR's 3rd party Mystic Vistas agreement, I can forsee at least one new .pdf publisher.

 

[Kanegrundar]

Here's my predictions based solely off what I hear and read (no real "insider" information):

D&D will continue to sell well with new products like DMG2, Weapons of Legacy, and so on. I expect to see another BIG SURPRISE from WotC early in the summer about a major product coming out in the fall. I don't know if it will be a new campaign setting or not, but it will not be a new edition (or even a hint thereof).

Eberron and FR will continue to sell equally well. Eberron may see a slight increase in sales after D&D Online comes out, but chances are that the MMORPG will not affect the sales of the print line whatsoever. I do think the possibility is there for D&D Online to be the big release in online gaming next year.

The minis line will continue to take the collectible minis market over. Each new set will continue to feature better sculpts and painting in a field they are already beginning to surpass the big dog (MageKnight and all the other "Clix" games). I would actually expect to see some premium figures out sometime as well. By premium I mean, larger, non-random figs with a higher production value, but still put out with stats cards and be ready to play. Then again, I don't expect it, but I hope to see that someday.

D20 Modern/Future/Past/Apocalypse will actually see some supplements. Not many more than 2 books, and they may actually be softcovers, but Modern fans won't have to rely on other publishers alone for support.

D20 in general will not see nearly as many releases in leiu of bigger, higher quality books. There will be even more chatter that D20 is dying, but in truth what is released will be better and draw more people to the systems. I think we'll see more factioning of the D20 market with OGL products like Grim Tales, M&M, Blue Rose, and others seeing more support than D&D. There will still be generic D&D support, but releases will be fewer and farther between. Mongoose will come out with a couple more lisenced products, but sadly their editing won't be any better than normal.

Warhammer FRP will see a lot of buzz and be a great product, but I think it will die out rather quickly. The setting hasn't ever been able to hold the appeal of gamer beyond the wargamer crowd. I wouldn't expect to see it draw many wargamers into the RPG camp, but there will be a few. (Then there will be another upswing of posts about roll-playing vs role-playing. )

Castles and Crusades will sell well, but it won't be the big hit of the year. It will sell very well and generate a lot of buzz, until groups hit the little things that nearly every "rules lite" system doesn't take into account. (Those little things are different for every system.) If C&C can address these issues, then it will do well, but if not it'll see only a brief moment in the sun.

WoD will sell well no matter what. Exalted will continue to sell well also, but we'll see a slowing of support until a new edition comes out in '06 (by my guess).

Palladium will survive, but will only see 2, maybe 3, releases in the entire year. Chaosium will pretty much do the same. However, I do think that sales will only be good among the diehards that stick by these companies even though they aren't ran very well at all.

Overall, I think that it will be a good year to into gaming no matter what game you play.

I lay no money on these predictions, it's just my best guess.

Kane

 

[edbonny]

Sorry, those are all pretty recognized role playing acronyms:


Nisarg

They are?

I was glad someone asked about them before I did.

 

[Mark]

I think we'll see a lot of great stuff from Creative Mountain Games, which is great because Marc is a great guy with a great company!

That's "Mark" with a "k" and Thanks!