The trends of 2005

[Sargon the Kassadian]

Quote, Kanegrundar "Warhammer FRP will see a lot of buzz and be a great product, but I think it will die out rather quickly. The setting hasn't ever been able to hold the appeal of gamer beyond the wargamer crowd. I wouldn't expect to see it draw many wargamers into the RPG camp, but there will be a few. (Then there will be another upswing of posts about roll-playing vs role-playing. )"

I'm not sure how much I am allowed to say, given I'm kinda playtesting (we've only played a little bit) Warhammer Fantasy RP, but I don't think it will sell that well (hint, hint)

 

[Turjan]

I'm not sure how much I am allowed to say, given I'm kinda playtesting (we've only played a little bit) Warhammer Fantasy RP, but I don't think it will sell that well (hint, hint)

If we have to buy the whole GW mini backstock in order to play it, you may be right .

 

[Desdichado]

Rather than make my own unique predictions, I'll rebutt some of the ones made already.

I don't think Castles & Crusades will be a big thing in any commonly used definition of the word. It'll have some good Internet buzz, which could mean little more than half a dozen really vocal fans are always praising it (about where it is now, actually, at least around here, and I hear about it even less at rpg.net.) It's appeal is too limited; I doubt many people in the market want such an overtly nostalgic experience.

I don't think Eberron will be very impacted negatively by the computer game, should it fail, but it might be impacted positively if the game is a hit. Either way, it appears that Eberron is reasonably successful for WotC, and some hints even indicate that it is moreso than they predicted. But what do I know?

I don't think WHFRP will be a big deal. It's a flash in the pan. Longtime fans will pick it up, and maybe a few new people. Games Workshop are already dissing rpgs in the pages of White Dwarf (according to reports from our British collegues about WD#300 -- I haven't received my copy yet; I'm a subscriber.) I wish all the best to Green Ronin, and I think their strategy of procuring licenses is a good one, but I think d20 Black Company and Thieves World will do better for them.

I think Nisarg's probably right about the new World of Darkness; I imagine a lot of fans of the old World of Darkness will feel a sense of disconnection with the new setting and will drop out. Then again, Campbell's probably right too; I'm marginally interested in picking up the new Werewolf, since I was a big fan of the older one before d20 came out. We'll see if the droppers are a bigger number than the reconverts.

I don't agree with him on Exalted though; at rpg.net there's already a number of threads questioning whether or not Exalted has "jumped the shark." Whether they have or not, I'm sure they're running out of meaningful things to do with the setting. I expect them to announce a Revised edition by the end of the year so they can start the supplement selling all over again.

Rumors are that the dual-stat Delta Green sourcebook will finally come out in '05. That's a lot more likely to be a big deal than anything Amber related. I just can't see that being a big deal one way or another, since the original Amber was so niche. I've never even seen a copy on a shelf at any gamestore ever.

Hmmm... anything else? I guess not. If I think of anything, I can always edit the post...

 

[Turjan]

I don't think Castles & Crusades will be a big thing in any commonly used definition of the word. It'll have some good Internet buzz, which could mean little more than half a dozen really vocal fans are always praising it (about where it is now, actually, at least around here, and I hear about it even less at rpg.net.) It's appeal is too limited; I doubt many people in the market want such an overtly nostalgic experience.

You are probably right. Gary Gygax's books for TLG did not stir much interest over here on ENWorld, either, so the nostalgia factor seems not to convert directly into sales interest. I have no idea how well they sold in "real world" shops, though.

I can already see a "Fantasy Heartbreaker" thread pop up on rpg.net .

I don't think WHFRP will be a big deal. It's a flash in the pan. Longtime fans will pick it up, and maybe a few new people. Games Workshop are already dissing rpgs in the pages of White Dwarf (according to reports from our British collegues about WD#300 -- I haven't received my copy yet; I'm a subscriber.) I wish all the best to Green Ronin, and I think their strategy of procuring licenses is a good one, but I think d20 Black Company and Thieves World will do better for them.

I read that thread. Given that GW is going to market WHFRP themselves, I don't expect too much love involved in their handling of the product.

I don't agree with him on Exalted though; at rpg.net there's already a number of threads questioning whether or not Exalted has "jumped the shark." Whether they have or not, I'm sure they're running out of meaningful things to do with the setting. I expect them to announce a Revised edition by the end of the year so they can start the supplement selling all over again.

*shrug* Actually, the fans have been talking of the next edition of Exalted for ages. There are some critics, but the books are sold, anyway. If WW's timing is good, they will bring out the new edition just in time to keep the sales up in a new edition cycle.

 

[cignus_pfaccari]

I don't agree with him on Exalted though; at rpg.net there's already a number of threads questioning whether or not Exalted has "jumped the shark." Whether they have or not, I'm sure they're running out of meaningful things to do with the setting. I expect them to announce a Revised edition by the end of the year so they can start the supplement selling all over again.

NO!

Not without my Lunar splatbooks! THERE BETTER BE LUNAR SPLATBOOKS!

Brad

 

[cignus_pfaccari]

The role-playing gamer population will continue to grow, thanks more in part to D&D and Star Wars miniatures than to the new basic game.

Of course, there won't be a new edition of the SW d20 RPG; we'd've heard about it by now.

WOTC has a big surprise planned for late in the year; it won't be a new edition, but it might be a new campaign setting (maybe). I would personally like to see GI Joe or Transformers developed for D20 Modern or D20 Future.

I'm really surprised that we haven't seen a G.I. Joe setting for d20 Modern. I think that could, potentially, be huge, particularly if it were tied to a Basic set or something.

Brad (who REALLY wishes that the Company book for SFA had come out before the line ended)

 

[talien]

There will be a new D20 release, either a new mega-project a lá WLD, or a conversion of an old or existing non-d20 game, that will generate huge buzz, and at least one new licensed product that will do the same.

*GASP!*

Who told you about my SUPER-SEEKRIT project?!

*checks under desk for ninjas*

At least one of these will be a disappointment.

Ah geeze, they told you that TOO? Give a guy a break...sniff.

 

[RodneyThompson]

I will construct a crude suspension bridge to Venezuela. There, I will assume odd jobs under the name of Mr. Pilkington. But perhaps I've said too much...(props to anyone who gets the reference).

I predict that Dragon will be revamped, simplified and made easier to read, and will reemerge as a place for creativity. I foresee Green Ronin becoming the dominant publisher behind WotC. Too much good stuff this year. I predict that the existing Power Publishers (WotC, Green Ronin, Malhavoc, SSS, and maybe a few others) will expand their permanent employee roster, while many smaller publishers (primarily PDF) will either go the way of the dodo or will combine to form one consolidated publisher.

Contrary to what some have said, I see a decline in licensed games near the end of 2005, as the early/middle of 2005 will result in a license glut that will eventually get as old as other gluts have (monster books, anyone?).

 

[Patryn of Elvenshae]

I will construct a crude suspension bridge to Venezuela. There, I will assume odd jobs under the name of Mr. Pilkington. But perhaps I've said too much...(props to anyone who gets the reference).

That was the brief preview of Jurassic Park ... 6? ... on The Critic.

 

[AdmundfortGeographer]

My prediction:

FR will have another cataclysm.

I'm also imagining that WotC might put out for FR a supplement for its planets and moons. Fit right in along with its other regional hardcover books. A sly way to do something to reimagine fantasy space without having to republish Spelljammer.


Regards,
Eric Anondson