The trends of 2005

[diaglo]

I remember being surprised by the lukewarm response to C&C at the dragonsfoot forums. The hard-core old-school crowd can be a difficult crowd to please, and as you say, rather fragmented. Plus, most importantly, they're just a smaller group.

believe me alot of the response was purged/erased from the dragonsfoot board. there were multiple threads attacking and defending it.

my take. it doesn't go old school enough for my tastes. and caters to the d02 too much.

i said as much on the C&C boards too. no wonder they forgot to tell me when they changed passwords early on in development.

 

[Nisarg]

Right. All your argumentation depends on the fact that FR and Eberron, indeed, struggle for the same customers. Despite a small overlap, I don't see this happen.

Sorry, but any way you look at it, they do.

They both struggle for existing RPG playing customers, unless Eberron pulls off being able to bring huge numbers of new players into D&D.


Within the existing RPG playing customers, they both struggle for D&D playing customers, unless Eberron is able to bring in huge numbers of the people who thus far have resisted D&D or D20.

So for Eberron and FR to be able to both exist as flagship settings, you would have to be bringing in NEW people, in good numbers, because of Eberron. Even then, once that topped off, one or the other setting would need cutting down.

Nisarg

 

[EricNoah]

I think we might see FR start a slow winding down into Greyhawk-like oblivion over the next year.

 

[Mark]

Sorry, but any way you look at it, they do.

They both struggle for existing RPG playing customers, unless Eberron pulls off being able to bring huge numbers of new players into D&D.

Within the existing RPG playing customers, they both struggle for D&D playing customers, unless Eberron is able to bring in huge numbers of the people who thus far have resisted D&D or D20.

So for Eberron and FR to be able to both exist as flagship settings, you would have to be bringing in NEW people, in good numbers, because of Eberron. Even then, once that topped off, one or the other setting would need cutting down.

Nisarg

Bad logic. You infer that for EB to get even dollar one, it must be taking a dollar that would otherwise go to FR. Simply not the case. There are plenty of customers of RPGs who either make their own material, cobble together modules in a sort of generic setting, use Greyhawk or other third party pub settings, or who have until now only played (not DMed) that might never have intended to spend money on FR that might spend on EB or some other setting. Sure, there will be some overlap as some FR folks migrate to the new setting of EB, but it has to be asked that if they can be drawn off of FR anyway, were they soon-to-be unsatisfied customers that would have drifted away and are being kept in the WotC purchasing fold a little longer?

Sorry. Any way you look at it there are no absolutes in this debate.

 

[Desdichado]

Sorry, but any way you look at it, they do.

Sorry, but that's simply not true. I don't own any FR material and likely never would as the setting doesn't really appeal to me.

I own most of the Eberron material out to date (with the exception of the modules, but that's because my DM owns them.) I'm at least one example of how Eberron is not necessarily cannibalizing sales of FR. In fact, my entire group of five gamers own most of the Eberron material with only a handful of FR products between us. And even then, the FR products we do own are not for use in FR games.

There's also plenty of folks even here on these boards who play FR, yet who have plans to integrate warforged, or shifters, or Sharn or other Eberron materials into their games.

I have no idea of estimating the effects of cross pollenization vs cannibalization of sales between the two settings, or how much they actuall reach different markets entirely, but to dismiss it as a theoretical impossibility as you do is a flaw in logic.

 

[T. Foster]

Castles & Crusades has had a much more enthusiastic reception here (and at rpg.net) than it has had at dragonsfoot.org (where, despite the dedicated forum, support is deeper than it is broad -- those who like it really like it, but there are only relatively few of them; everybody else is lukewarm at best and at least a few are downright hostile). When you think about it this isn't really all that surprising and suggests that C&C IS being marketed primarily as nostalgia -- it's the game for people who like 3E well enough but still have fond memories of the older editions and wish there was a d20 game that 'felt' more like old-school D&D. No wonder such a game wouldn't find much support at dragonsfoot where 1) most of the people specifically don't like the d20 mechanics and consider the use of them to be a negative rather than a positive 'feature,' and 2) they don't 'miss' the feel of the older editions because by and large they're still playing them. And saying "but it's in-print" doesn't carry much weight either -- if they've stuck with their out of print system for 10+ years (20+ years for those who consider anything post-Tom Moldvay to be a travesty) why would being currently in-print suddenly become a big priority? There are C&C fans at dragonsfoot.org, and because of its dedicated forum there are probably more of them there than anyplace else (save TLG's own forums), but they're a distinct (if vocal) minority and don't be fooled into thinking C&C has anywhere near universal acceptance among the dragonsfoot.org crowd (or oop-edition-diehard gamers in general, to the extent to which the two may be considered synonymous).

NOTE: I'm not in any way faulting TLG for targeting the C&C system the way they have -- to nostalgic-feeling 3E players rather than 1E-only diehards -- because I don't think it's possible to produce a new game system that will appeal to the 1E diehards (I mean, they're not called 1E diehards because they're eagerly looking for new systems to play!). The way to target the 1E diehard audience (to the extent that they're an audience considered to be worth targeting) is through generic-statted and/or 1E-compatible adventures, which TLG are also trying to do (by continuing to stress that C&C modules should be adaptable on-the-fly to earlier editions -- whether this turns out to actually be true or not). It's entirely possible that the C&C modules (the Gygax Castle Grey...err...Zagyg modules in particular) will end up appealing to a substantially different group of consumers than the ruleset is appealing to. I wonder how, or if, TLG will resolve that conflict...

 

[Mark]

The way to target the 1E diehard audience (to the extent that they're an audience considered to be worth targeting) is...

What is "from a bell tower", Alex?

 

[Desdichado]

Castles & Crusades has had a much more enthusiastic reception here (and at rpg.net) than it has had at dragonsfoot.org (where, despite the dedicated forum, support is deeper than it is broad -- those who like it really like it, but there are only relatively few of them; everybody else is lukewarm at best and at least a few are downright hostile).

That's not entirely encouraging for C&C then; I'd say that in general both here and at rpg.net the support has been similarly deep rather than broad, and otherwise the game is being met with ambivalence.

Again, I'm sure C&C will be quite successful for the standards of a publisher of TLG's size and standing, but to make the claim that it will generate huge buzz during the year, or will fundamentally change the market, or anything like that, is absurdly optimistic.

 

[Nisarg]

Let's look at this logically:

Let's say right now, Wizards is making:

5 FR books a year
selling 50 000 copies total
capturing 50% of the market share

(those are totally made up figures btw, this is just to demonstrate my point)
where in "market share" means people who are already role players.

If they start making
5 FR books a year AND
5 Eberron books a year

but sell:
70 000 copies total
capturing 70% of the market share

That still would mean that you've cut into FR's market share, and have lowered FR's sales, plus now you're producing twice as many books, and cutting into each book's profitability.
In the end, even something like, which would be a phenomenally exaggerated projection of success, would hardly be worth doubling your costs for.

The only way that it would make sense to keep up two flagship lines within an existing market share would be if you literally thought that you would DOUBLE your market share and sales by having the two lines. And that just isn't going to happen, no matter how wild Eberron's success is.

What might make sense is to do 5 FR books and 2 Eberron books, make sure they are meant to appeal to as different a demographic as possible, and hope to sell 70000 copies and get up their market share.
That could make sense... to have one "flagship" line and one specialty line.
Doubling your production (which you'd have to do to keep two flagship lines going, if you were really defining both as "flagship") would not make any business sense at all, EXCEPT if you sincerely believed that you were going to double your market share and sales, and/or that the new product would bring in large numbers of non-gamers INTO the market share.

The MMORPG might mean Wizards is betting on that pony, but i just don't see it happening.

Nisarg

 

[Akrasia]

... Again, I'm sure C&C will be quite successful for the standards of a publisher of TLG's size and standing, but to make the claim that it will generate huge buzz during the year, or will fundamentally change the market, or anything like that, is absurdly optimistic.

Well I don't think anyone is claiming that it will 'fundamentally change the market'. Probably the most optimistic scenario would be for C&C to do almost as well as the Conan RPG -- and secure a stable position in that certain niche.

My perception of the reception of C&C over at dragonsfoot is obviously somewhat different than T.Foster's. My impression is that there are a few who are opposed to the system, but they are a very small number. And even most of those who are 'ambivalent' and have no intention of switching over from OAD&D or OD&D to C&C are eager to see Castle Zagyg.