If you really want to read it all, that goes into an indepth explanation of why there is an edition treadmill, why it doesn't have to exist...why it does exist...and what would happen if RPG's...and hence D&D was treated like a boardgame.
Have a nice read.
It was a little hard to follow, but I think I got the gist of it. I think what I got from it was the following (and correct if I've misunderstood):
- D&D was once a fad and fads are good, due to the burst of revenue.
- Fads fade, sometimes very quickly. The only way to continue a fad is to reinvent it.
- Most books publish, have a big 'fad' start then sales fade over time
- Boardgames have a fad publishing schedule, where each game 'reboots' the fad
- D&D should switch to a publishing model similar to a boardgame, using box sets and the like to make packages with fad burstiness
Well, Gamma World will certainly show if that's a successful model or not, since that's exactly the approach they're taking with it. I personally don't think that will work for large sales, but might make sustainable lower tier numbers. But I don't know if it will bring in new gamers or not and I have no idea of hardcore gamers will give it a chance. Most of the reviews I've read for it say that people bought it AFTER playing it; arguably the best way to expand the hobby.
A large problem with discussions like these is that we have no real hard data or access to sales numbers. Everyone knows WotC is the 800 lb. gorilla, due to a number of data points (presence in stores, advertising/sponsorship budgets, market penetration, large-scale anecdotal evidence from both gamers and small retailers, etc.). But as was evidenced in other threads, we really don't know how the overall industry functions.
I also think you're wrong about boardgames; as a niche market, most Euro-game producers are very, very small and work with small margins. A company like Mayfair, FFG or makes money, but they're not in WotC's class. I'm not sure that attempting to emulate them too closely is a winning strategy. For last year, board games (all of them, including Monopoly type games) sold around some $700 million in sales. As recently as 2007, Hasbro controlled 51%+ of the board game market. It's unclear if those numbers include D&D and Magic. It's been put forth that only about $50-100 million of that figure is attributable to hobby games (again, it's unclear where D&D and Magic fall in this).
I would hazard that the most popular FFG release is dwarfed, sales-wise, by the basic Apples-to-Apples set or a good chunk of GameWright's output, which can be found at Borders, Barnes & Nobles and Target, usually in highly visible locations.