Greatwyrm said:
Just for the sake of discussion, let's say the things we don't think will be in the initial core release actually won't be. Gnomes, bards, monks, psionics, druids - all of that stuff. Am I genuinely nuts to think that people won't be falling over each other to produce this stuff before WotC does? If some 3rd party publisher produced a monster book and psionics book on release day, wouldn't that be a huge sales opportunity?
I think it depends - mostly on the product that they're thinking of doing.
WW's Creature Collection was considered a coup by White Wolf when 3e rolled out - until the Monster Manual came out. CC was rushed out the door and no one really knew what the rules were going to look like until the MM came out. Once the MM was available, copies of the CC that were unsold at that time just rotted on store shelves for a long time. I have no idea of whether the economics ended up giving WW a net plus or minus (I suspect they did allright with it - it did have a sequel and a cleaned-up re-release), but jumping the gun like that may not work a second time.
OTOH - if Wizards decides to wait a year or so before building some of the core races and/or classes (as is rumored for gnomes), there might be an opportunity there. A "Book of Lost Lore" that has some GOOD conversions of those missing aspects might be good for a few sales. It would have a fairly short shelf life, though - once Wizards puts the "official" version out there sales on such a book would dry up - so the publisher would have to be careful.
Psionics is even riskier than writing up missing classes and races - you're talking about an entire rules subsystem that (given the history of the game) we can all be fairly certain someone at Wizards is thinking about doing. You might have some die-hard psionics fans pick it up, but others are just going to wait to see the "official" version. And when the "official" version came out, again you'd better hope you guessed your print run size correctly because you're going to be stuck with the leftovers.
Third party publishers have it tough with 4e, I think. They have to play quite a bit of "guess which direction the 800 lb. gorilla is going to move" with their product decisions. When 3e came out, Wizards telegraphed their forward direction quite a bit - they were going to focus on rules-oriented products, reduce supported campaign settings down to one (FR), and put out a limited number of adventures to support the game. Third party publishers were given an opportunity to fill demand for niche campaign settings, adventures, and even some cruchy rules systems that it was fairly clear that Wizards didn't consider "core". After 3.5e, Wizards changed direction on what they were going to be putting out for the game. Now, it's hard to tell from their statements for 4e where they're going to be going and what niches are going to be ignored enough for a third party publisher to settle in and cater to an "ignored" fanbase.