Seasong and everyone else:
You've made one very gross assumption... That WotC's point buy system was intended to model the 4d6 drop the lowest mechanic, or some other probability curve.
It doesn't. It wasn't meant to.
It is based entirely on one easily remembered rule of thumb...
To increase your ability by one point, you must spend a number of points equal to your current ability bonus, with a minimum of one point spent.
That's it. Pretty simple, eh?
For ability scores 9-14 it only takes one point to increase your ability by one point. To increase from 14 to 15, or 15 to 16 it costs 2 points. To increase from 16 to 17, or 17 to 18 it costs 3.
When mix/maxing a character's ability modifiers, it has always been most advantageous to take no scores higher than 14, because you are getting the most bonuses overall for the points spent.