What do we actually know about WotC's market research?
- Thread starter Raven Crowking
- Start date
Lanefan said:
Lanefan, I was just getting online today to mention that poll of yours in this thread. I've got to say, that poll was by far the most eye-opening thing I've ever read here on ENWorld. I've got a graph of it printed out and tacked on my wall now.
Key result: 55% of the respondents started playing in just the 1978-1984 period. Everything since then has been basically flat-lined, with tiny pick-ups around 2E and 3E releases.
As an instructor of statistics and a D&D writer, it totally blew my mind. I'd love to know if WOTC research shows the same thing as those results. I bet it does. And if so, the conclusion I take is this: all new D&D publications have in the majority been selling new product to the same customer base since 1985.
It also gets me thinking about things like: How powerful is it to have "Return to..." or "Expedition to..." releases (which WOTC has a new batch of these days)? Has there ever been an basic, introductory set as compelling as the Holmes or B/X editions? Does WOTC even really try to grow the D&D customer base, or is that really futile? Totally fascinating!
http://www.enworld.org/showthread.php?t=171146
WizarDru
Adventurer
Delta said:
Except that the customer base has turned over as much as it has grown or shrunk. Many gamers have left, returned, joined and left again in that period. When I was 12, lots of people wanted to play D&D, but few stayed with it for more than a very short time. Lots of non-gamers wanted to see what the fuss was over the game that had hit the zeitgeist...and once they discovered what it was, they moved on.
Plus, we need to consider that many active players are not active CUSTOMERS. Go over the Dragonsfoot and you will see plenty of D&D players who don't happen to be customers of WotC, because their version of choice is out of print. There are plenty of people here who play 3.0 versus 3.5...and thus don't purchase accordingly.
WotC has tried tricks every year to lure in new customers to the game; the D&D board game, the D&D starter set; national D&D day; beginner novels; ads in video game magazines and comics. How successful they've been is a topic for debate...but they ARE trying. The market is very different from when the Moldvay set hit the stores.
Joshua Randall
Legend
Quoted for truth. Big time.Asmor said:
It's very dangerous to project from your personal experience onto "everyone" out there. Even if -- especially if -- your personal experience involves an Internet-based group like ENW.
Lanefan
Victoria Rules
So would I.Delta said:
They try to grow it; the question is more do they succeed?
Here's another thought: how much growing of the customer base does WotC itself have to do? I mean, in my own experience (and, I bet, in others') the game grows as we as existing players and DMs introduce new people to it...my current game has had 5 players so far who had never played any other RPG; some have gone on to continue playing (or would like to) elsewhere. All WotC might need to do is just keep producing the product, at least to some extent.
Lanefan
Victim said:79% of statistics is misleading.
And 43% of statistics are worthless.
I've worked in market research for 20 years. Even talked to WotC about being their director of market research at one point (long story).
I can assure you of three things (though I fear I'm reiterating what others have already noted):
1) A sample of 1000 is a big, reasonable sample. Many, many of the studies I've done over the years have been with smaller samples -- honestly, a sample size of about 250 to 300 is usually enough for a high level of confidence in your results, although on a big "strategic" study, like the landmark study that fed into the development of 3E, you usually like to have a bigger sample...though, that's mostly because you will frequently divide the respondents into subgroups during the analysis (e.g., older vs. younger, casual vs. avid gamer, etc.)
2) Just because you personally haven't been asked to participate in a WotC market research study doesn't mean their research is flawed. If their numbers are accurate, and several million people play RPGs, then the vast majority of those who play have never participated in a market research study for WotC.
3) Just because their research says something different from what you feel (or, "me and everyone I know") doesn't mean it's flawed, either. Even in studies I've done in which the results were "overwhelming", there's still 10 or 15% of the respondents who hold minority viewpoints.
Some time back, I was working on a well-known brand of pancake mix. Our R&D department was charged with developing an improved formula for that pancake mix, and I was in charge of doing the market research on that improved formula. We tested it among current users of that pancake mix, and the vast majority (like, 80%) of the people we surveyed preferred the new formula over the old one. The company changed to the new formula, and sales improved. However, we still got a fair number of very angry letters from people who felt betrayed by us...people who were clearly in the small group who preferred the old formula (only about 5% preferred the old one; about 15% were indifferent). They were incensed, they thought the new product was terrible, and they thought we were idiots.
It's entirely possible (in fact, probably likely) that WotC did find people with opinions like yours in their research...but, if that opinion is in the minority (particularly if it's in a small minority), they're likely to go with what the majority is telling them. (BTW, this is the same phenomenon that you see with TV ratings, when you're incredulous that that great show you love gets cancelled, while shows you can't stand get renewed....welcome to being an outlier.)
One other note...most companies never share the results of their market research with the public; not even their avid users. They pay a great deal of money for that research, and the information in it represents a competitive advantage. The fact that that information from that one study in 1999 was released (which, I suspect, was done to help convince other publishers to jump on the d20/OGL bandwagon) seems to have set some unrealistic expectations among the gamer community that we're somehow entitled to see this stuff from WotC on a regular basis.
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Lanefan said:
WotC does indeed engage in some programs to attempt to bring new players into the hobby, including:
- Worldwide D&D Game Day, which is this Saturday; they provide packs to retailers to run introductory games
- Organized play programs for both D&D Minis and the RPG (the RPGA)
But, yes, the most effective method for bringing in new players is the "evangelical" efforts of current players.
nothing to see here
First Post
kenobi65 said:
Great couple of posts Kenobi. It should also be poitned out that making "evangelical's" out of your consumer base has become something of the current holy-grail in marketing. Peer to Peer marketing cuts through so much of the clutter that interferes with traditioinal channels. (for one prominent example, Apple attests much of their Mac sales growth to the 'evangelical' efforts of current Mac users)
This has been D&D's growth model for...I dunno...30-odd years now. So congratulations gamers! You're the trendsetters at the head of the pack!
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