D&D 3E/3.5 What if 3.5 and 4E split the market?

[Glyfair]

Drawing on a quote from another thread

EDIT: And for all those people hoping that 4E flops, remember that where D&D goes so goes the entire industry. Without D&D I seriously have to question wether or not the Hobby would continue to be economically viable. How many RPG stores really on D&D sales to stay open?

I wonder if the people I see hoping that the market gets split, with a lot of players buying 3.5 products and others buying 4E products (with some doing both), have thought it through.

If that happens than 3rd party d20 companies may have trouble surviving. I doubt very many are significantly "profitable" as it stands. If the split happens then they can pretty much cut in half (or worse) any of their products whether they go with 3.5* or with 4th. You'll end up with maybe the top 2 or 3 d20 publishers surviving, but smaller. Most of the small companies will disappear. What you'll be left with is a bunch of amateur PDF publishers with a hit and miss ratio that will rival the 3E glut days.

* Actually, based on comments in some threads here 3.5 products will likely be worse. In the "what sort of 3.5 products would you want if don't go 4E" threads a very large number of people said they probably would buy very, very few products. They have what they need now and the switch will give them an excuse to stop buying stuff that isn't "Ptolus level" of quality.

Those going with dual stats will have extra work (that they have to pay for) for probably no additional income.

 

[JohnSnow]

Drawing on a quote from another thread


In fact, I wonder if the people I see hoping that the market gets split, with a lot of players buying 3.5 products and others buying 4E products (with some doing both) have thought it through.

If that happens than 3rd party d20 companies may have trouble surviving. I doubt very many are significantly "profitable" as it stands. If the split happens then they can pretty much cut in half (or worse) any of their products whether they go with 3.5* or with 4th. You'll end up with maybe the top 2 or 3 d20 publishers surviving, but smaller. Most of the small companies will disappear. What you'll be left with is a bunch of amateur PDF publishers with a hit and miss ratio that will rival the 3E glut days.

* Actually, based on comments in some threads here 3.5 products will likely be worse. In the "what sort of 3.5 products would you want if don't go 4E" threads a very large number of people said they probably would buy very, very few products. They have what they need now and the switch will give them an excuse to stop buying stuff that isn't "Ptolus level" of quality.

I wouldn't worry. It's not like this is going to be a substantial split. Despite the loud kvetching from the vocal minority, I'd guess 20% (or, more likely, less) of current users are planning to stick with 3e.

Of those, some will come around eventually. The others will be replaced by new customers, or customers who left the game in the 2e-3e switch, or the 1e-2e switch, or the OD&D-AD&D switch.

A certain amount of "edition bleed" is to be expected with any upgrade. It's happened that way with every edition, and it will continue to happen that way as long as D&D stays in print.

 

[Rechan]

Y'know, there are people who still play OD&D/1e/2e. Why don't companies just rules for these?

 

[Philotomy Jurament]

As long as there's demand, "the market" will be there to service it. If only 50% of the current 3E players move to 4E, it won't be the end of D&D just because the market is split. The market will adjust to whatever levels of demand are out there. Not worth worrying about, IMO. My advice is to just play what you enjoy and buy the stuff you like; don't worry about "supporting the market."

 

[Graf]

Not going to happen.
For better for worse DnD is a Monopoly (a single product really). The market moves where the monopolist wants.

Don't get me wrong, there will always be a few 3e games floating around out there, just like there are oDnD gamers who still play through the original Tomb of Horrors the "way Gary intended".

But everyone else will move to where new content is being created.
And Wizards owns that content.

 

[delericho]

I wonder if the people I see hoping that the market gets split, with a lot of players buying 3.5 products and others buying 4E products (with some doing both), have thought it through.

Agreed. Unless 4e is a massive failure (or gets killed because the DI flops), I don't see any way forward for ongoing 3.5 support, or a potential 3.75, at least on the part of companies of any size.

Depending on how big the split, there might be space for someone to do a set of 3.5 "core rulebook replacements". But I also suspect that if there is such a space, we'd see several companies produce their own versions, and the resulting 'format war' kill all comers.

I doubt a 3.75 could be a success, because you then lose a lot of compatibility with existing WotC product... and what I would want out of a 3.75 probably isn't what you would want, so we'd probably see a further splintering of the market.

But if the DI flops, all bets are off. Hasbro may not care about D&D, but that's as long as it makes money. The 'worst case' scenario sees WotC investing heavily in the DI, it then failing, and some Hasbro exec looking at the numbers and cancelling D&D as a whole. In that case, if someone has already done a 3.75e then they'll look like an absolute genius.

 

[Rechan]

Also, here's a real simple question:

Will gaming stores carry both versions?

Will book stores carry both versions?

I hear that a lot of FLGSes got burned by the d20 glut. And I wonder if they'd feel a similar suspicion looking at "The Other D&D".

Meanwhile, I have never seen third party products in a place like Barns & Nobles, Books-a-Million, et al. These places would offer the only option: WotC's D&D.

Now, you can say "The internet will solve the equasion", but remember: every single person who's dissatisfied with WotC's D&D would have to know about Necro/Piazo's replacement and order it online.

 

[Simia Saturnalia]

What if 4e splits the market? What if Paizo releases a 3.75 PHB? What if a giant meteorite were to crash into the Earth tomorrow?



Bloody hell! We'd all be killed!

 

[Glyfair]

Just a couple of clarifications:

1) By "split the market" I don't mean 10% stay with 3.5 and 90% go to 4E. I mean 60/40 at worst.

2) I am not suggesting it as a likely scenario. I am asking why there are people hoping for it.

I doubt a 3.75 could be a success, because you then lose a lot of compatibility with existing WotC product... and what I would want out of a 3.75 probably isn't what you would want, so we'd probably see a further splintering of the market.

I don't see a 3.75 being a success, assuming by 3.75 you mean "3.5 with a few tweaks." Chris Pramas even said his fears for 4E was that it would be a 3.75, which he felt would be bad for the market. There are a lot of things working against it, and I doubt the effort to create it would see enough rewards to offset the cost for a company.

Now, if by 3.75 you mean a very different cross-company system built on 3.5 (ala True d20, and maybe Arcana Evolved), maybe. It would be a longshot. How successful has True d20 or Arcana Evolved been in the long term. Are they still turning a signficant profit for the investment?

 

[Goonalan]

Won't we all just buy the crap as usual, see what works- keep that, junk the rest and replace it with whatever edition of the game we started with, or feel happiest with- that's what I've been doing for... oh, actually I don't want to say how many years.

The market's shrunk before, the rise of video games and particularly FPS (and on-line MMORPG et al), new gamers are born everyday, don't worry if Wizards/Paizo goes to the wall, someone'll spot the niche, the joys of capitalism. All those Chinese people painting them miniatures by hand, have a heart, we can't let them down.

Remember, what doesn't kill you only makes you stronger, particularly when you get to level up.

Cheers Paul