D&D 3.x What if 3.5 and 4E split the market?

[Desdichado]

Just a couple of clarifications:

1) By "split the market" I don't mean 10% stay with 3.5 and 90% go to 4E. I mean 60/40 at worst.

2) I am not suggesting it as a likely scenario. I am asking why there are people hoping for it.

I think that's obvious. So they can continue to get products of the edition that (at the moment, based on the little info they have) they prefer.

Honestly, although I'm not up in arms at all about any of this, for me personally I can't say that I don't think it'd be a good thing. If I stick with 3.5, for instance, and don't upgrade to 4e, then someday I reach the point where there's nothing else left in 3.5 that I want to buy. Unless the market splits.

I don't think it'd be a good thing for the publishers, or the market as a whole. But for me personally it would be. Until the economic realities set in and I couldn't get products for entirely different reasons (i.e., it's just not profitable for folks to publish them for the reduced market anymore so they stop, or something.)

I guess I'm kinda like Philotomy here; I don't feel any sense of responsibility or stewardship for the hobby as a whole. Ideally, everyone who made any RPG product at all would consult me before doing so to find out exactly what I want the product to have. My concern is getting what I want. This is a consumer driven economy, as always.

So when folks think that it'd be a good thing for the market to split into 4e vs 3.5 or even 3.75 camps, all they mean is that "4e is coming; we already know, but I'm not interested. If we split, then I can continue to get products that I want. Therefore, naturally, I'm in favor of that." I think it's perfectly reasonable as a wish or desire.

It's much less reasonable as an expectation but I can certainly understand why people would wish that it could be so.

 

[Haffrung Helleyes]

split market

I think the market will be split, but the split will be temporary.

Right now I have a huge backlog of 3.5 stuff to run. I have Ptolus, multiple Paizo adventure paths, Red Hand of Doom, and a bunch of Necromancer Games adventures that I haven't gotten to run yet. I've got WoTC books that I haven't even had the chance to properly read. I could run a whole campaign off the stuff in Libris Mortis, for example. The stuff that got released late in the 3.5 cycle was of pretty high quality -- probably better than the first 4E stuff will be, because the authors need time to get familiar with how to write good 4E adventures.

So, while I may eventually switch to 4E, it will be awhile. Hopefully, I'll manage to delay the switch until the game's been played for a couple of years and the broken stuff has been caught and revised. I wouldn't mind missing the first revision of splatbooks -- it would be nice to skip the 4E Tome and Blood and move right on to the 4E Complete Mage. And if I could pick up the game when they release 4.5 (and they will), that will be perfect.

I expect that during this time I'll try to get in a game and be a 4E player. But I won't need to buy anything but the 4E players handbook for this.

Honestly, I doubt very much that I am alone in this. People like me may be WoTC's biggest problem.

Ken

 

[Glyfair]

If we split, then I can continue to get products that I want.

And that's my point. If the market does split you might not be able to get the products you want (at least with any reliability and with a wider variation in quality).

I think the market will be split, but the split will be temporary.

I agree. I have to wonder if this might hurt a few smaller companies as well. They see the initial split and decide to cater to the 3.5 market. As the 3.5 audience shrinks by people moving to 4E and part of the 3.5 audience reducing buys because "they have everything they need" they will find they have been working on production for products that aren't selling very well.

 

[Wombat]

There was a lot of similar talk when 3e came out ... and nothing came to pass.

Sure, there are people who stayed with AD&D 2nd ed and are happy with it. Good! And there are people who jumped to 3e straight away. Also good! And there were people who grumbled and moaned about the changes and then eventually ended up playing 3e anyway and liked it. Fine, too!

But we (collectively, not necessarily individually) are creatures who are addicted to the word "NEW!" When a NEW item comes out, it is presupposed by most individuals to be inherently better than its OLD equivalent. Therefore many people will pick it up because it is NEW.

Equally, it will become increasingly difficult to find 3e items. During the first year there will still be (slowly diminishing) stock, but after a short while you will only find such material in specialty stores, a few used places, and on-line shops that cater to very particular tastes. Again, with 4e being commonly available, it would be easier for people to pick up, and thus play.

Between these two factors alone, I believe that 4e will not split the market.

On the other hand, as stated earlier, I don't believe that everyone needs to switch, or even to play D&D in preference to other games. Play what feels right at whatever edition level feels comfortable.

It's your game, after all...

 

[HatWearingFool]

First a thanks to the OP who got this thread started. I wrote the passage he quoted late (for me) last night and was thinking about starting a thread exaclty like this.

Personally I feel that the RPG hobby would go from being a niche market to one that was entirely driven by people working in their spare time. And I believe that this would lead to the Hobby dieing out in it's entirity as it became tougher and tougher for people to enter into the hobby.

I think that people who dislike 4E are best served by WOTC having a huge smash hit. The more people that WOTC bring in the easier it is for everybody to find people to play with. I'm betting White Wolf, Hero Games, etc are hoping WOTC can bring in a huge amount of new blood. Because eventually they'll tire of D&D and start looking for other things to play as well.

 

[Orcus]

60/40?

Holy cow if I thought the split was going to be even anywhere close to that I would be on that project in a heartbeat.

I cant imagine it more than 10-20%. But a very vocal and rabid 10-20%

If there was any real chance that a competing 3.75 would capture 40% of the market it would be a NO BRAINER to do it, at least in the short term.

Clark

 

[GreatLemur]

I won't be too surprised if a lot of 3.75 stuff does crop up, next year. I imagine there'll be a market (if a small one) for materials on how to incorporate 4e mechanical innovations into an ongoing campaign without losing access to 3.5's incredible wealth of races, classes, and feats. I'm sure 4e is being built from the ground up as a seamless, finely-balanced machine, but d20 is pretty modular and houserule-friendly by nature; I'd be shocked if people didn't end up playing hybrid games by using both the new rules and the old content.

Come to think of it, a substantial (if temporary) third-party micro-industry will probably form around the idea of updating 3e content for 4e. Hell, we all know there'll be dozens of homebrewed druids and gnomes within a day of the new PHB's release, right? Some of that stuff will surely be PDFed and sold before WotC can publish a PH2.

 

[Gundark]

But we (collectively, not necessarily individually) are creatures who are addicted to the word "NEW!" When a NEW item comes out, it is presupposed by most individuals to be inherently better than its OLD equivalent. Therefore many people will pick it up because it is NEW.

I agree with this. When 3.5 was announced many in my gaming group where of the attitude of "forget it, I'm not converting". I was the only one who looked at the changes and liked what I saw. So I brought the 3.5 books to the table, and the group looked them over. Well before long we were all playing 3.5.

 

[Korgoth]

Right now, based on the magical power of my gut [Disclaimer: rumblings of the magic gut are not to be construed as legal, financial or moral advice and are for entertainment purposes only], I think that 4E is not going to succeed. My off-the-wall guess is that the initial core book sales will be high, driven by hope, hype and curiosity. I think that a small minority of people will be genuinely happy with how it plays and will find it to be their "perfect game". I think that a larger group will play it for a while hoping that their disappointment eventually turns into joy (which I don't think it will).

In the aftermath of this, the magic gut says that many players will return to whatever edition of D&D they most enjoy, the one that most defines "D&D" for them. For many people, this will be 3E. At some point I expect to see one or more attempts at a 3.75 by a third party (hopefully, for the sake of 3E fans [which doesn't include me], not Mongoose) which may contain some elements of the 4E SRD. At which point we're starting to get outside of the magic gut's chrono-range, so it's hard to say what Hasbro's move would be. 5E would probably be the smart move in that case, but it's just too remote even to speculate.

 

[DaveMage]

I cant imagine it more than 10-20%. But a very vocal and rabid 10-20%

*waves*

I think there's a parameter that's being overlooked here. It's not so much "I will only buy 3.5" vs. "I will only buy 4E". It's more like the "I will buy 4E vs. I'm not buying *anything*."

The concern is not who will buy 3.5, it's whether 4E will be profitable enough for WotC. I think the answer to that depends on two factors:

1. Will the new format of PHB1, 2, 3; MM1, 2, 3, etc. work? If gamers accept the fact that they have to buy several monster manuals to get all the classic monsters they are familiar with, as well as several players handbooks to play all the "core" PC races and classes they are familiar with, then this model will work. Personally, I hate the idea, but certainly there seem to be those lining up that like it - YMMV and all that.

2. The DI. If the DI is successful, the game will probably succeed for a very long time. If the DI flops, then my guess is that D&D the RPG at WotC is done within 3 years. (Or, at least, it will be scaled back a whole lot.)

A third factor could be DDM. Although I see DDM declining for one simple reason: product volume. Many of those who have been buying for the last 4 years are at capacity, and don't have need for too much more (this is for those that only use DDM for RPG purposes). Personally, I'm done with random boosters. I'm only buying singles at this point because I really don't need another bleeping dwarf!