D&D 5E What if the D&D Core outsells the revised D&D Core?

[cranberry]

The vast majority of people will buy the new books and adopt One D&D due to the promotional efforts of the trend setters and influencers.

 

[Loren the GM]

I think this question is more relevant now than when I first posted it.

I'll bite, and try to answer the original question.

I think if I'm WotC, I'd be trying to analyze the data around WHY. My hunch at this point in time is that it would have little to do with a system change (as I don't think the mass consumer market cares if the book labeled D&D is 5e or revised OneDND 5e - I don't believe there is huge understanding of the playtest and update within the broader market), and more to do with the state of the market.

Obviously, the pandemic was a huge boom for D&D, so I would be looking at the impact of that, and where it pushed growth.

I'd be looking at partnerships and how they are positioning the product, like Critical Role.

I'd be inspecting every aspect of the marketing of the product and seeing if there are new or revised ways that can impact the sale (should we do more Twitch streams? Join D&D Tiktok? Work more closely with Youtube personalities to hype product through actual play, interviews, special events, etc?).

Is local brick and mortar way out or under performing, and if so how do we capitalize or improve there. Can a bigger push into big box retail add significantly more sales?

I'd be checking in directly with Amazon to see what could be done to boost sales on that platform. Is there advertising, partnerships, or SEO stuff that could be done to improve sales directly with the platform? Does Amazon want to produce some DND content for Prime? Maybe for the Kindle platform? Maybe for their gaming division? Maybe with Twitch? Amazon controls a lot of platforms that could synergize for some major brand and product marketing, so this might actually be a major focus.

I'd be looking at VTT options, and seeing if there are ways to push product in the digital space beyond DND Beyond.

I would be pushing hard to get our own VTT online, to try to capture market and bolster the company that way.

I'd be looking at partnership deals. If the movie or television show is successful, push more of that to synergize with selling content. I'd try to find other publishers like Larian to make more quality video games ala Baldur's Gate 3 (maybe work with Owlcat?).

What I wouldn't do is just walk away from One DND. At least not unless there was very specific and direct data that showed the changes were the major cause in drop in sales.

 

[cbwjm]

PS: The missing one is not Witcher. I started and ended it mid season 1. I just did not like it. Mostly the incoherent time lines drove me away.

That was so confusing for me, I kept thinking people were gonna meet then they didn't, and why was it snowing where they were but not where the others were when they're so close to each other? I finished season 1, but the show didn't really grab me enough to watch the rest.

 

[humble minion]

I think if I'm WotC, I'd be trying to analyze the data around WHY. My hunch at this point in time is that it would have little to do with a system change (as I don't think the mass consumer market cares if the book labeled D&D is 5e or revised OneDND 5e - I don't believe there is huge understanding of the playtest and update within the broader market), and more to do with the state of the market.

Obviously, the pandemic was a huge boom for D&D, so I would be looking at the impact of that, and where it pushed growth.

My guess (only a guess) is that it's at least partly due to the way the D&D player base has grown over time.

5e seems to me kinda unique among D&D editions in the WotC era in that the player base has experienced a large amount of growth late in the edition's lifecycle. Partly due to the pandemic, partly due to word of mouth or increasing awareness due to things like Critical Role etc. Unlike prior editions when the game boomed immediately or in the first couple of years after an edition release as the 'core' expansions came out, and then slowly tailed off. Not many people were picking up 3rd ed in 2006, 6 years into its life, and getting excited about it (I'm sure some were, but they were a minority), but piles of people picked up 5th ed for the first time in 2020.

This means you have a large number of players who haven't been playing for very long, and who may not have played many campaigns to a finish, or to very high level, or may not played a wide variety of classes. To them (and I count myself among them, having picked up D&D for the first time in over a decade at the start of lockdowns in 2020, and having only played a couple of characters in that time), the game is still kinda fresh and new, and some of the system annoyances which bother more experienced players aren't apparent. But to people who've played a lot, and run into the same problems with the system a lot, and have perhaps encountered some of the more problematic corner cases, or who are even just a bit plain bored and want a change, maybe 5.5 looks more necessary and exciting.

Edit: or maybe the experienced players are more likely to be bored and restless with the base assumptions of 5e and want more major fundamental changes than WotC seem to be planning to make.

 

[TerraDave]

I have to double check the source, and I haven't read through the whole thread...

1e books were kept in print for a while after 2e launched. they were just too lucrative to stop.

Its the even edition curse, and yes its starting to happen. 1/6/5.5 won't exactly tank, but boy could it underperform. Eventually heads would roll, changes would be made, the IP could be sold.

WotC does have time for a course correction. But if things go this way through 2024, it will be interesting.

Not too quote myself...but there is a very strong every other edition effect.

1e outsold 2e. B/X outsold BECMI. 3e outsold 4e. Then of course 5e outsold everything.

Can they really top it? Can they even keep the momentum going? New things will come along in the next two years, who knows what, but the kids may find something else to do, as they did in the late 1980s and early 2010.s As for 1/6/5.50 the playtest is OK, but I see no great brilliance or insight there, nor none of the excitement with Next.

Sometimes when you are at the top, the only place to go is down.

 

[Parmandur]

I think this question is more relevant now than when I first posted it.

I'll bet they stop printing the 2014 books by the end of year, if they haven't already: put them on clearance, then market and hype the new ones as Aazon and Target restock with only the new ones. Keep the old supplements in print.

I've noticed that my local Targets don't have the PHB, and haven't for mobnths: they have the boxed sets, Dragonlance, Tyranny of Dragons (9 year old Adventure for sale in Target!!), and Golden Vault...but no core books anymore.

 

[EzekielRaiden]

I'll bet they stop printing the 2014 books by the end of year, if they haven't already: put them on clearance, then market and hype the new ones as Aazon and Target restock with only the new ones. Keep the old supplements in print.

I've noticed that my local Targets don't have the PHB, and haven't for months: they have the boxed sets, Dragonlance, Tyranny of Dragons (9 year old Adventure for sale in Target!!), and Golden Vault...but no core books anymore.

Yeah, this is what I would expect as well. Let the current books slowly run out, maybe do one more small printing for electronic sales purposes since those are likely to sell before mid-2024. Keep the supplements, since most of them should still work with a minor conversion doc (e.g. "For any Ranger subclasses published before 5.50e, use the following levels for their subclass features instead of the listed levels" for the various classes, among other tweaks.)

Then, open the floodgates for the new books. The original books often sold at discounts even early on; try to make that happen again. Between the up-to-date customer curious about the changes, the dutiful brand-loyalist who buys everything, and the ordinary customer just buying what's available, it will sell just fine. If it's actually an improvement, especially for caster/martial imbalance and character building depth, it may even actually do better, since those are two key areas where current 5e gets criticized.

 

[Parmandur]

Yeah, this is what I would expect as well. Let the current books slowly run out, maybe do one more small printing for electronic sales purposes since those are likely to sell before mid-2024. Keep the supplements, since most of them should still work with a minor conversion doc (e.g. "For any Ranger subclasses published before 5.50e, use the following levels for their subclass features instead of the listed levels" for the various classes, among other tweaks.)

Then, open the floodgates for the new books. The original books often sold at discounts even early on; try to make that happen again. Between the up-to-date customer curious about the changes, the dutiful brand-loyalist who buys everything, and the ordinary customer just buying what's available, it will sell just fine. If it's actually an improvement, especially for caster/martial imbalance and character building depth, it may even actually do better, since those are two key areas where current 5e gets criticized.

Honestly, if the new books have cool new art might make more of a difference than the rules, I'd they keep it sufficiently in line with people's expectations of a D&D experience.