kenjib said:
What about all of the developments in philosophy, science, navigation/ship building, mercantilism, the arts, etc. etc. etc.? Surely the world wouldn't have ground to a screeching halt were it not for gunpowder, no? What about Newton? The proliferation of the scientific method?
As you rightly point out, kenjib, the Renaissance was an interplay of a great many different elements, brought about by a large number of different factors. Isolating the influence of a single factor is at best guesswork, at worst meaningless. For example, you mention the rise of the scientific method. To what extent was this influenced by the large influx of educated Byzantines, raised in a knowledge of the Greek classics
and understanding of Arabic learning, after the fall of Constantinople in 1453? It's true that the Western Church - the repository of learning in Western Europe - was changing already. But did this influx overcome some inevitable inertia in being less dogmatic and more questioning of received wisdom? Or was this change inevitable, given the already considerable dissemination of the classics into the West? See what I mean?
Nevertheless, we can hazard some guesses about the absence of gunpowder. Zarathustran has already pointed out some elements, and Turjan has made some good counter-arguments. I suspect that from a pure battlefield perspective, efforts would have gone into creating alternatives to gunpowder. The trebuchet was clearly capable of being a deadly siege weapon, and crossbows and longbows were powerful, and accessiible battlefield weapons. Castles would start mtating towards the designs that later resisted the impact of cannons - squatter and bulkier, using stone and earthworks to provide greater mass to absorb impacts and deter sapping. Heavy armours are useful, but less so than once they were. That said, some of the developments in shaped (gothic) plate seem to offer some advantages in dealing with missiles rather than bullets.
However, one factor which might be different... the nation state. The increasing use of gunpowder artillery expanded the need for a professional, fulltime army to deploy it properly and to resist assaults. It becomes increasingly difficult for even powerful noblemen to field forces that could be truly effective in the field - they just lacked the necessary income to support the costs. Only nations, tapping the incomes of an entire realm, and with sovereign power to extract wealth from sources with its borders, were able to afford truly effective armies, and to pay for the necessary fortifications. I wonder if without gunpowder the era of the tradtional feudal state might have endured longer. if it is still possible for powerful and wealthy Dukes, Counts and Earls to provide themselves with effective armies and fortifications, then they are still able to resist the rise of sovereign power in the centre of the realm. For classic D&D this is probably advantageous. The social order - based loosely on feudalism - might well endure far longer.
In many ways, if you really want to explore this idea, then White Wolf's
Mage: the Sorcerers Crusade might be what you are looking for. It is set in the Renaissance, but a Renaissance where there is a philosophical war, with metaphysical consequences, about what is and is not good for people to be able to do. Is empowering the Masses a liberation, or is it the arming of barbarians who will tear down the delicate balances of God's earth?!