So I said they were anecdotal observations in my original post, but do they ring true for others reading this? I don't have much data but it's really rare to hear people claim 4E has more momentum than 3.5 in their community. Do you feel more gamers you know are teaching their siblings, nephews, and friends 4E than 3.5? Are they recommending new players get 4E and go out and buy the books?
I can piece together some evidence
Amazon - Pathfinder is outselling the 4E PHB. This indicates PF is about as popular or moreso than 4E but misses a whole demographic that plays a game that is essentially the same. If you believe more people play 3.5 than PF that indicates at a minimum the 3.5 system (PF and 3.5) is twice as popular as 4E.
Meetup - I've seen 4 3.5 games start here and a 2E game. No Pathfinder yet. I'm the only one to propose a 4E game. I consider this to be a very useful and neutral benchmark and I'm curious what others have noticed.
http://www.enworld.org/forum/d-d-legacy-discussion/311906-edition-buy.html - this post seems to reflect a lot of what I hear in my community. 3.5 recommendations outnumber PF and 4E.
I saw a WOTC designer write a really dour blog about freelancing, which devolved into a rant about his frustrations with the industry. In it he stated the D&D R&D team is the smallest it's ever been. I can't recall his name or find the blog (help me out) but I think it would be hard to dispute what he said about the size of the design team and what it indicates about D&D.
Again, this is all very anecdotal evidence. But I haven't seen any evidence that suggests WOTC's customer base hasn't shrunk dramatically. Can anyone show me any evidence that suggests more than 70% or even 51% of gamers play the version of D&D WOTC is selling.