I think 5e is one of the most innovative systems I've seen in the last 15 years.
That's an interesting take. I've sort of mentally turned myself off to d20 / D&D as a whole for long enough now that it seems hard to rationalize how that would be the case. That and the fact that in retrospect, I was never truly getting the kind of game from D&D (at least the 3.x/PF variety) that I really wanted, at least as a player.
In fact, I might even ask those that actively play D&D 5e if there's been a real paradigm shift in play from the 3.x era. Is 5e demonstrably different in play?
But I remember back to system design in the '80's and how almost everyone was pursuing the false goal of 'realism' based on a theory that if you had a system that was 'realistic' that a whole host of other goals would be simultaneously achieved. For example, it was I think widely assumed that the source of many table arguments was the feeling that the system had produced an illogical result, and so if you had a system that consistently produced more realistic results there would be more focus on play and less negotiation of play. It was assumed that realism equaled emersion, that realism equaled depth of characterization, that realism equaled greater excitement, and greater literary or cinematic value to the stories that were being produced at the table. In short, 'realism' was seen as a cure all for whatever ailed your table, and as such game designers seemed to pursue the idea that you couldn't have too much realism and that there job was to figure out mechanics that would handle issues realistically. I can remember evaluating mechanics on that basis, "Oh, that's more realistic. Yeah, that's good."
Looking back on it now it seems sort of silly.
And GURPS is the poster child for this line of thinking, and having played it a bit now over the past 5 years, there's definitely a byproduct of that sort of thinking all throughout the system. The whole idea that if we could just stop rationalizing over what "hit points" mean, and have real "active" defenses like parry and dodge instead of static armor class, and if taking a sword blow actually meant something, etc. etc., that somehow the game would improve in leaps and bounds over what "D&D" was giving to the hobby.
In my experience, the end result was actually worse. At least, it was worse once you had to start engaging with the actual mechanics.
But see, this partly goes to my original point --- is there design space for more innovation in "core resolution" mechanics? For example, is it simply impossible to do a "bell curve" system that uses most, if not all the polyhedral dice? All of the popular "bell curve" systems that I know of historically (GURPS, HERO, Mechwarrior, Star Wars d6) all used d6's exclusively.
Is it just too hard to do a bell curve using stuff other than d6's? To me, "bell curve" distribution for mechanical resolution just "feels" right. Most of the known physical world operates within principles described by a statistical "bell curve," so it seems to me that a "bell curve" system should feel "most natural." The fact that I really dislike GURPS implementation of it doesn't mean the idea "clicks" in my mind.
But as you say, maybe "bell curve" resolution is a byproduct of the mindset that RPG "realism" is this sort of cure-all that makes play inherently better, when really that isn't the case.
I feel much the same way about some of the panaceas that I see being advanced in RPG design right now: 'rule light', 'one single mechanic for everything', 'player narrative agency', and so forth.
I can see that. I'd agree that that holding up "one way to play" as being "perfect" for everything is probably unhealthy. At the same time, I'm also much more aware these days of what rules are actually
doing to a game. I don't really care about "rules lite" or "rules heavy" so much as I care about "rules necessary" and "rules effective." What rules are necessary to provide the type of playstyle you want?
I'm sure I can't tell you what the next big thing is going to be. But I can tell you what it's not going to be: doubling down on something we've already got.
That's an interesting take. I don't know that I totally agree with it. In one sense, I think "innovation" might come about if someone actually
tried to double down on an existing concept, and then tried to work the rest of the system around it. If there's "just one thing" a designer thinks they absolutely MUST get right, and the mechanics look at building around that, it could lead to something interesting.
If I had to guess, I'd say the next big thing will be the recognition that different sorts of tasks benefit from different mental models of the task and so benefit from different mechanical models. As someone whose design interests spread across all sorts of games, I often look at new RPGs and imagine them translated to a cRPG. I then often think to myself, "Did the RPG designer really understand what they were building, or would they be surprised by what the visual model of their system would look like?"
If I had to guess, the next really BIG thing after that would be electronic tools that seamlessly integrate with traditional PnP play to automate aspects of PnP play that are otherwise tedious and repetitive, allowing you to have designs that meet the goals of both the 'rules light' and 'rules heavy' factions. So far, electronic tools have tended to increase GM prep rather than decrease it, but I can foresee a turning point in technology where that problem stops being true.
There's a whole layer of human-computer interactivity that doesn't exist yet that could really bring about changes in the way we play RPGs. For example, how soon in the future will this little thing we call a "mouse" be completely obsolete? Hand/motion/voice interaction at some point, I have to believe, will get rid of keyboards and mice, at least for the vast majority of computer technologies.