Instead of overthinking this to death, why not just change the flippin' rules to suit your own games?
Me, if there's a group of PCs and NPCs standing around talkling and someone suddenly hauls off and attacks someone the target gets its own surprise roll, and everyone else gets a single overall surprise roll; and the results of these rolls determine what comes next:
- if nobody is surprised at all then it's initiative time all round with the attacker getting a bit of a bonus as her action is triggering everything
- if the target is surprised but others are not then everyone except the target gets initiative, again with the attacker getting a bonus
- if the target is not surprised but everyone else is then only the target and attacker get initiatives, with the target's intended action determining whether the attacker gets a bonus or not (straight defense, flee, etc. = no bonus; return the attack = bonus to original attacker as defender has to draw weapon etc.)
- if everybody is surprised then there's no initiative at all until the original attack has resolved, then it's normal initiatives all round
As for the stealthy group sneaking up on the Orc camp, I'd say they maintain the possibility of surprise until and unless one of several things happens:
- they give themselves away by a blown stealth roll or by doing something stupid
- they attack (and now the Orcs get a surprise roll)
- they intentionally forego their surprise to do something non-offensive e.g. initiate parlay, surrender, or whatever
- the Orcs succeed on a (situationally more or less difficult) perception check to notice the party (whereupon the party should get their own perception check: do they realize they've been spotted?)
- the party are themselves surprised by something previously unnoticed e.g. a few Orcs returning to camp see the party and sneak in to attack from behind
Every situation's a little different, to the point where I'd say trying to hard-rule everything is the path to madness.
Lan-"nobody should ever know where they are in the initiative order from one round to the next - roll every round!"-efan