D&D 4E Where was 4e headed before it was canned?

[Garthanos]

THis I tend to disagree with because people are notoriously bad at calculating risk vs reward.

Call this a double thumbs up. And its not just some math deficiency or game related thing it impacts huge numbers of real life situations. It might even be a defining human feature.

 

[Umbran]

For example, say the PC has normally a 60% chance of succeeding a standard action - attack, skill check, whatever. Now, if you reduce that success chance to, say, 35% (say by raising the DC one "level" or +5 to the DC) but the results of a successful check are only 50% better than if I just did a normal action, then, there's no point. That's a suckers bet. You need to give me 100% better results for a -5 (or 25%) penalty to success, otherwise, there's no point.

We should note that, outside of combat (where we might measure effectiveness with, say, hit points of damage dealt), there is rarely a useful measure of effectiveness. We can't reasonably say if something was twice as effective or not. There is only perception of effectiveness, and usually then only in a hypothetical sense, as we don't see how the universe of the standard action, and that of the improvised action, unroll side by side.

 

[Parmandur]

THis I tend to disagree with because people are notoriously bad at calculating risk vs reward. That "flash judgement" for DC's is almost always punitive for the benefit of the improvised action which results in players who simply never try improvised actions because they can see that there is no actual benefit to attempting them.

For example, say the PC has normally a 60% chance of succeeding a standard action - attack, skill check, whatever. Now, if you reduce that success chance to, say, 35% (say by raising the DC one "level" or +5 to the DC) but the results of a successful check are only 50% better than if I just did a normal action, then, there's no point. That's a suckers bet. You need to give me 100% better results for a -5 (or 25%) penalty to success, otherwise, there's no point.

But, very, very few people actually understand that. There's a reason that the -5/+10 feats are written the way they are. -5/+5 is totally not worth it. If I am significantly increasing my chances of failure (and going from 60% to 35% is almost doubling my chances of failure), then my reward needs to be even more than what I am risking. Otherwise, it's not worth it.

And, "common sense" and "flash judgements" are almost universally wrong.

Actually, that last sentence is not true, really the reverse: flash judgements made by the human brain are actually rather solid. There is a lot of science bearing that out. Not perfect, but good enough for pretend Elf shennanigans, particularly when the math is limited and open to interpretation.

And, the proof is in the pudding: people have been comfortable using the flexible 5E tools for years now, and it has been very newb friendly (including child friendly).

 

[Garthanos]

Actually, that last sentence is not true, really the reverse: flash judgements made by the human brain are actually rather solid.

Cite your studies dude... looks at people buying guns to keep their small curious children safe from attacking terrorists on US soil.

 

[Garthanos]

We should note that, outside of combat (where we might measure effectiveness with, say, hit points of damage dealt), there is rarely a useful measure of effectiveness. We can't reasonably say if something was twice as effective or not. There is only perception of effectiveness, and usually then only in a hypothetical sense, as we don't see how the universe of the standard action, and that of the improvised action, unroll side by side.

I think it takes work to put it in. For instance how long does it take to do (can it adjust some over all success by allowing additional application of effort ) does it carry over benefit into the next action and in a team play scenario can its awesome inspire an ally with some benefit on their next action.

Yeh its a bit less defined than hit points. but you need some measure of general success to work towards in any conflict scenario. If the action is a chase scene its pretty presentable to players
This is where skill challenges were introduced.

 

[Parmandur]

Cite your studies dude... looks at people buying guns to keep their small curious children safe from attacking terrorists on US soil.

The problem with mistakes like that is that they are considered decisions, actually. Whole books have been written about this, but here is one example summary of the state of psychological studies on the predictive value of snap judgement:

"Evidence points to accuracy in some of the snap judgments we make about other people. Telling whether someone is extroverted or shy is easy. Multiple studies have shown that judgments of someone’s extroversion made by looking at that person’s photograph (even for just 50 milliseconds) predict how extroverted he or she actually is. But we’re also quick to make accurate judgments about facts that seem a lot more difficult to predict, such as the amount of money a chief executive is going to make for the company in a given year, or someone’s romantic attraction toward us. For example, personality traits inferred from the faces of executives predict their leadership skills, measured in terms of bottom-line profits, and the effects are just as strong whether the photo is current or was taken in the leader’s college days."

"Studies have shown that women’s sexual attitudes and behaviors can be accurately judged from 5-minute video clips and even from photos of their faces. Along similar lines, seeing a flash of a face for just 40 milliseconds — 10 times faster than the average eye-blink — was all many study participants needed to tell if a man was gay or a woman was a lesbian, and thinking about it longer actually made their so-called “gaydar” less accurate. Experimental participants who saw faces for a fraction of a second were just as accurate as those who were given all the time in the world. When they were told to think carefully about their decision (versus going with their gut) they choked, producing results no better than chance guessing."

Snap-Judgment Science

You've spent hours preparing for the job interview. You’ve tried to anticipate everything your potential new employers may ask you. You think hard about every detail: Remember to sit up straight, look them in the …

www.psychologicalscience.org

Point is, a simple system of snap-judgement based tiered difficulty like 5E will work very well for most people to improvise actions and reactions, as proven by years of people using the system as such.

 

[Garthanos]

"Evidence points to accuracy in some of the snap judgments"

Thank you very much for your response

Key word to me is "some" - and we are not even making real world snap judgements, we are computing the likely hood of things in a world where a 250 lb man can put the beat down on a beast the size of a building armored like a tank using physical effort alone - ie in practice for most people making such estimates seem really impoverished.. and has classically resulted in Martial types being seriously under fed in capability across the board.

 

[lowkey13]

*Deleted by user*

 

[Garthanos]

Ever had a DM ask for a series of swimming rolls guaranteeing a drowning process because you know he didnt know how to swim? I have nor is eyeballing the effect of multiple die rolls natural for most people.

This is what I think of when I think of DM improvising free from.

And in D&D land I think of "Just say NO" mentality being disguised because only magic can really do the extraordinary.

 

[Parmandur]

Thank you very much for your response

Key word to me is "some" - and we are not even making real world snap judgements, we are computing the likely hood of things in a world where a 250 lb man can put the beat down on a beast the size of a building armored like a tank using physical effort alone - ie in practice for most people making such estimates seem really impoverished.. and has classically resulted in Martial types being seriously under fed in capability across the board.

Well, the fact that we are talking about "I'm an Elf Wizard" pretend time, means that we are not necessarily constrained to strict realism, but narrative fidelity as judged by the DM and players is important. The DMG calls out a Wuxia style campaign as being possible with the skill system as is, with the narrative shifted. The game provides six numbers, with natural language monikers of "Very Easy" to "Impossible," and DM adjudication is all that is needed to assign them. There is no "objective" DC for any task, beyond what a DM and their table find appropriate.