But ZERO about #1 has the slightest thing to do with simulation whatsoever. These are simply fictional arrangements of plot. If you think this is a simulation then every novel ever written is a transcript of a simulation! Lord of the Rings, yup! Foundation, yup again! A Wizard of Earthsea, sure thing! You see the problem here? There's no model (mathematical or logical formulation/system of equations which calculates current state from prior state) and no good initial system state to run a model against. Its just some completely arbitrary statements about a very few of the people in this world coupled with some explication of one or two of their motives which happen to be salient to the topic at hand, and a few fairly vague statements about what "will happen" (not calculated, simply stated as truths).
Obviously a non-toy example probably contains maps and keys which establish additional details, a few more (mostly very minor) NPCs, etc. That isn't going to materially change the situation. The GM in this example could decree that almost anything happens, and easily justify it with additional facts, suppositions about the mental state of the characters, additional ideas about their resources, motives, the existence and motives/resources of additional persons, or entirely other factors (a drought has been ongoing, causing a huge wildfire which burns half the local farmlands, driving a vast number of people to the temple, forcing Viktor to change his plans). This is exactly what I'm driving at, the world descriptions are too thin to constrain the possibilities, and actual simulation is simply not possible, or even desired.