D&D 4E Why I think the digital initiative doesn't herald 4E

[darkbard]

Certainly, I feel the failure to renew Paizo's licensing agreement, which made Dragon and Dungeon magazines possible, heralds a change in business strategy at WotC. However, while many view this as a clear sign that the announcement of 4E is inevitable and impending, I look at it another way.

To me, what this signals is WotC's faith in the digital online business model. I think WotC is aware of the glut of d20 products (especially print products) on the market, sees its own products suffering, and has devised the online model as a way of reshaping the industry. Say what you want about WotC (and I say plenty of nasty things myself, especially ever since the big announcement of the cancellation of Dragon/Dungeon), but they're not dummies (though I think they massively misjudged the reaction to not renewing Paizo's licenses). They realize that gamers are sick of having to essentially repurchase the entire game system and its ancillary support products every few years.

So instead of publishing a new edition of the game and continuing to crank out several books per month, I think WotC sees the digital subscription plan as a way to expand the game in interesting ways, hook players into spending money on their products in a way customers currently are not (I suspect many of the newer WotC releases have done less well than releases of only a year or two ago), and obviate the need to rush a new edition of the game to increase revenue. Plus, online material shifts the production cost/revenue balance in a way favorable to WotC.

Now, I certainly think 4E will happen eventually. I just don't think that the digital subscription model necessarily draws its appearance closer. (I'd venture it's still at least two years away.)

Anyway, just some thoughts.

 

[Agamon]

It could be the precursor to 4E, much like the 2E Option books were to 3E. Hard to say.

 

[Glyfair]

Certainly, I feel the failure to renew Paizo's licensing agreement, which made Dragon and Dungeon magazines possible, heralds a change in business strategy at WotC. However, while many view this as a clear sign that the announcement of 4E is inevitable and impending, I look at it another way.

I agree for different reasons. First, Dragon has always been one of their primary ways of communicating such major changes. I would think that if 4E was imminent that they would keep it around until the launch in order to help build anticipation. The only exception I see to this is if 4E was to have a major electronic component as Ryan Dancey has suggested. Since they are just beginning to hire developers in this area, I just don't see it.

Secondly, taking such actions that will create major negative PR before making another major announcement that's going to have major negative PR doesn't seem like good marketing to me. Maybe a marketing expert will contradict me, but having to put out fires for three different announcements all at once seems like it's risking the brand.

Because of this, I think that 4E is a long way off. The only other real option I see is that they seriously underestimated the negative reaction to cancelling the magazines (and to a lesser extent, the Dragonlance license). That would show true incompetence at the top of WotC and the D&D brand, IMO.

 

[darkbard]

Glyfair, I agree with what you've added to my statement about the advertising potential of the magazines: non-renewal of the licenses before the (comparatively) pending announcement and release of a new edition just doesn't make much sense.

Your second point makes good sense, too, but I think it's possible that WotC really misjudged the fan reaction to the magazines' demise and thus may not have predicted there would be much PR flak to deal with at this juncture.

 

[maddman75]

I've been thinking that 4 may not be coming soon, or if it is the rules won't be a radical departure from what we have now. Reason - the D&D minis are a huge cash cow. Part of that is the synergy between the RPG and miniatures game. Make a huge change and you lose that.

Of course, maybe they're waiting for the D&D minis to die down so they can release a new version of both at the same time.

 

[heirodule]

Now, I certainly think 4E will happen eventually. I just don't think that the digital subscription model necessarily draws its appearance closer. (I'd venture it's still at least two years away.)

I agree. WOTC wants something you buy constantly. DI means youre always paying for more content.

 

[Henry]

I feel the same way. 4th edition is AT LEAST a year away, if not two years away; I believe that if they planned to announce it, it would be not at a Gencon or such, but one of the D&D experiences that run in February.

 

[Harker Wade]

I agree with Henry. I mean didn't WotC say that all major announcements concerning D&D would come out of D&D Experience anyway??

 

[Baby Samurai]

It would be really lame if you needed a credit card to buy future WotC products, IMO.

 

[BlackMoria]

I agree with Henry. I mean didn't WotC say that all major announcements concerning D&D would come out of D&D Experience anyway??

Odd, that.

I would think that killing off Dungeon and Dragon magazines in their current incarnation would be classified as a "major announcment". Perhaps if they said something about their intentions during D&D XP, they might of lessened the whirlwind the 'outta the blue' announcement of the cancellation Dragon and Dungeon mag caused.

Hmmph.