D&D 3.x Will 4e last longer than 3e?

[Brother MacLaren]

This business model, unlike the 3rd edition book printing, could go on endlessly. Imagine a Player Handbook 15.

That would make it much harder for new gamers to join the hobby, would it not?
Take 3.5. Suppose you were a new gamer joining a group that was using the 1st 4 splatbooks, the Spell Compendium, and the PHB2. If you just bought the PHB, your fighter would be MUCH weaker than one designed with Complete Warrior and PHB2. Your wizard would be MUCH weaker than one designed with Complete Arcane and SC. Due to power creep, those books become more or less required if you want to join the hobby.

The more "core" books are published, the higher the entry cost. Am I wrong here?

 

[Tharkun]

I figure that the usual trends will apply 8-10 years between editions.

 

[Mr Jack]

I think we'll see a revised 4th edition in about 4 years. But much more like the revised 2nd was, than a 4.5. In other words, new art, an improved layout, some extra rules clarifications and bringing in all the errata from the intervening time.

Edit And, come to think of it, they'll probably sneak in a new class or two and a new race or two, I reckon.

 

[Ranger REG]

I don’t know what do you think? Will 4e be longer lasting? Why or why not?

In this digital broadband, wi-fi, fast-paced, real-time, world full of MMORPGing gullibles? Hardly.

 

[Roman]

Scott Rouse said early on that there would be no 4.5, and that he expecetd 8-10 years between editions.

I remember Scott saying that there will be no 4.5E, but I don't recall seeing a quote that he expects 8-10 years to elapse between editions. Do you have a link?

 

[Roman]

That would make it much harder for new gamers to join the hobby, would it not?
Take 3.5. Suppose you were a new gamer joining a group that was using the 1st 4 splatbooks, the Spell Compendium, and the PHB2. If you just bought the PHB, your fighter would be MUCH weaker than one designed with Complete Warrior and PHB2. Your wizard would be MUCH weaker than one designed with Complete Arcane and SC. Due to power creep, those books become more or less required if you want to join the hobby.

The more "core" books are published, the higher the entry cost. Am I wrong here?

I think you are mostly wrong, but not entirely. D&D is not a competitive game (well, at least not usually), so it won't matter if a new gamer joins with just PHB 1. Besides, the other players would probably allow him to use their books.

 

[RigaMortus2]

I think it will, because it looks like they have a long term goal in mind with regards to the multiple PHBs. One thing that struck me about 3.5 was them putting out the Complete books, and then coming out with a PHB2. What purpose do they serve being seperate like that? Most of what is in PHB2 can fit into a Complete Book, and all of what is in the Complete Books could just as easily have been PHB2, PHB3, etc...

And look at it from this angle...

When they came out with Complete Scoundrel, Complete Mage and Complete Champhion, my first reaction was "gee, what are they going to come up with next? Complete Priest?" It seemed like a way to just make money, not enhance the game...

BUT...

If, instead, they packaged them as additional PHBs and you expected this (like they are doing with 4E), then you would just be kind of used to it. It is expected. You wouldn't be able to wait for "the next PHB" to see what new classes and such they added.

It's a psychological thing. Hope I explained my thought process there well. Anyone not understand what I am trying to say?

 

[Brother MacLaren]

I think you are mostly wrong, but not entirely. D&D is not a competitive game (well, at least not usually), so it won't matter if a new gamer joins with just PHB 1. Besides, the other players would probably allow him to use their books.

Well, I can see that, but if I was new to the hobby and saw that there were 15 PHBs, each with different material, that would be intimidating to say the least.

 

[Roman]

I am not sure whether 4E will last longer than 3E. Some aspects of the business model, such as additional core books every year make the business more viable in the long-run, but I suspect after several rounds of core rulebooks they will run out of things to put in that would be of interest to the majority of players.

What's more, D&DI might actually shorten edition lifespan. Like computer games, D&D will now have graphics. These will eventually start to look dated (and it will probably not take all that long for this to happen). WotC will then want to upgrade them by making D&DI 2, which will also be necessary, because people will very quickly identify not only bugs, but also faults in the new program in its first incarnation and will clamour for major changes. At the point of upgrading the D&DI, WotC will most likely decide to 'upgrade' the edition too - just like it is doing with D&DI rollout and 4E roll out at corresponding times.

 

[jdrakeh]

It depends. The entire market for RPGs is in decline, largely because the American economy is in decline. If the economy continues to decline, so will luxury item purchases, and so will the entire RPG market. D&D 4e might still be crazy popular, though if fewer people can afford to buy it, its lifespan may be somewhat short.