D&D 3.x Will 4e last longer than 3e?

[Cyronax]

It depends. The entire market for RPGs is in decline, largely because the American economy is in decline. If the economy continues to decline, so will luxury item purchases, and so will the entire RPG market. D&D 4e might still be crazy popular, though if fewer people can afford to buy it, its lifespan may be somewhat short.

I think that trend would affect 3rd/4th party producers first. WotC still has name recognition, production value, and the fact that they are the base for the game.

But in the end, D&D thrived in other periods of economic uncertainty in the US and abroad.

Like all things with the market, why not be a good, optimistic consumer and keep our demand driven economy ticking. Keep spending.

C.I.D.

 

[BryonD]

Scott Rouse said early on that there would be no 4.5, and that he expecetd 8-10 years between editions.

I can easily believe that they mean that from the bottom of their hearts right now. But 6 years from now it may be really hard for them to recall why they thought that was a good idea.

 

[BlackMoria]

I think 5e will be earlier rather than later.

I base that on several things:

Despite being in development for two years, a number of things still seem to be in flux based on some comments made by the designers. I don't know if 3E had things nailed down at the same point in the development cycle but if things are not nailed down in short order, then potentially hasty decisions may lead to fixing things sooner rather than later.

If the intent is to release a PHB each year, there will come a point that late adopters (ie. new players 5 years from now) have a real barrier to fully embracing the game because they will need to get PHB X for the druid rules, PHB Y for the Illusionist, PHB Z for whatever else they want ..... and this on top of the core PHB. Imagine coming into 4E at the 8 year mark and thinking you are missing out unless you buy 8 annual PHBs. 5E coming sooner than later will address this to a degree.

Alot of factors of 4E longevity is dependent on the DI. If the DI flops or has problems, I expect 4E sales are going to cool. Remember, the DI is going to be the source of errata and 'value added' information for 4E. Problems with the DI are going to color perceptions and affect sales in the long run, which may move the plans for 5E. Not that I am predicting the DI will fail but WOTC, after building and hyping the DI, had better get it right the first go around or there is going to be a hell of lot of disappointed or disillusioned people.

 

[BryonD]

It depends. The entire market for RPGs is in decline, largely because the American economy is in decline. If the economy continues to decline, so will luxury item purchases, and so will the entire RPG market. D&D 4e might still be crazy popular, though if fewer people can afford to buy it, its lifespan may be somewhat short.

The RPG market has been in decline while the US economy was booming as well.
And I doubt the short term ups and downs will play that much of a role in the life of 4e. In particular the 2008 US economy will have zero effect on whether 5E comes in 2014 or 2018. A downturn in the economy in the late years of the game could have an immediate impact at that point. Just depends on timing there.

 

[FATDRAGONGAMES]

My guess is a new edition in roughly 7 years. The new strategy of an ongoing series of PHBs, DMGs, etc. combined with revenue from monthly subscriptions to Gleemax/Insider should tide them over well enough to avoid relying on new editions to surge revenues.

 

[drothgery]

I think the answer to the titular question in this thread is 'it depends on how you count'. 4e will likely last longer than 3.0, I'd bet, but not as long as 3.0 + 3.5. After 5 years or so, you're pretty much down to all-new settings, adventures, and kind of obscure sourcebooks to sell. And I don't think calling an obscure sourcebook PHB6 or MM7 is going to make it any less obscure.

 

[Cyronax]

I think the answer to the titular question in this thread is 'it depends on how you count'. 4e will likely last longer than 3.0, I'd bet, but not as long as 3.0 + 3.5. After 5 years or so, you're pretty much down to all-new settings, adventures, and kind of obscure sourcebooks to sell. And I don't think calling an obscure sourcebook PHB6 or MM7 is going to make it any less obscure.

That is a good point. I bet WotC will repackage their old core materials though and do a compendium + erratta + best of, in order to push the product line as long as possible.

But I bet 4e will be short(er).

 

[Henry]

I think 5e will be earlier rather than later.

I base that on several things:

I also base it on the knowledge from former TSR employees that D&D would probably be in its 6th or 7th edition now if it weren't for so many corporate shakeups between the 1980's and now.

Unearthed Arcana appeared in 1985, and its status as a supplement instead of a full new edition I think was affected by Gary's struggles for control.

TSR staffers were kicking around ideas for 3rd edition as early as the early 1990's before bankruptcy reared its head in 1996.

Heck, it seems that most of the execs that ran the ship in 1999 were gone by five years later! It's not like the owners of D&D have ever had a smooth, contiguous history of a decade or more.

5E will probably be a reality by 2015 or so, I'm estimating. And that's cool with me. I don't have a huge desire to see D&D remain iron-clad for decades on end -- it's just not the norm for the rest of the RPG industry.

 

[TwinBahamut]

I guess it all comes down to how long 4E remains profitable and how many annoying problems emerge in the new rules.

2E lasted longer than it should have because TSR kept with it despite it not being profitable (and went bankrupt as a result), and 3E seems like it is lasting exactly as long as it could remain profitable to WotC, but it is impossible to say how profitable 4E will be. If the annual core books and campaign setting is as successful as I think it will be, it will probably last quite a while, but I don't know with any kind of certainty.

Similarly, it is impossible to say if any unforseen rules issues will emerge that require a new edition to fix. I suppose the annual core books may actually help here, since it may be possible to combine a 3.5 style rules correction with an iteration of an annual supplement, and ease some of the problems of rebuilding the PHB1.

Either way, as long as I enjoy 4E, and enough effort is put into the inevitable 5E, I really don't care how long 4E will last.

 

[jdrakeh]

Like all things with the market, why not be a good, optimistic consumer and keep our demand driven economy ticking?

Because I'm practical. And because I'm a Communist.