D&D 3.x Will 4e last longer than 3e?

[Ranger REG]

My guess is a new edition in roughly 7 years.

I call 6 years.

 

[pogre]

I'm familiar with editions piling up in the context of miniatures' rules. GW averages around 5 1/2 years per edition. I'm not counting 1st, 2nd, and 3rd editions of Fantasy battle because they were rapid improvements of the system and presentation.

I think the rapidity of creating a new edition will depend very much on whether the design crew for 4e sticks around WOTC for a length of time. If they do I would see a 5th edition coming out in around 5 years. If they leave, for whatever reason, I think we're looking at more like 8 years.

 

[Roman]

http://www.enworld.org/showthread.php?t=204173&page=2&pp=30

Post #47

Thanks!

 

[Jan van Leyden]

Let's put another spin on it.

According to the designers, it took them some 3 years from starting the design work to the release of 4e. If they start designing 5e right away, it could hit the market in 2011.

But this would leave WotC with a much reduced workforce for the supplemental material for 4e. So from a business perspective the question is: when does it start making more sense to let the designers work on 5e than on PHB/DMG/MM #n for 4e. This is related to the success of the 4e publishing model.

If PHB/DMG/MM 2 (Core 2) bomb in 2009, WotC faces several options:

They can allocate their workforce to 5e, resulting in the next edition's entry to the market in 2012.

They can make plans for a different business model. After deciding on this, design work on 5e can begin. How long it will take depends on the new business model.

They can sell the property, so that some time in 2010/2011 a new owner has to decide how to manage D&D.

If Core 2 sells as expected in the business plans and Core 1 meets the expectations in 2009/2010 as well, Scott Rouse's predicted live time of 8-10 years will come to fruition.

Personally, I would place my bet on the last option and expect 5e in 2016. What it will look like, what role books will play in that edition, that remains to be seen.

Huldvoll

Jan van Leyden

 

[Dragon Snack]

Scott Rouse didn't give an answer. Not when he says things like "rough schedule" and "should". That may be the current plan (of the designers at least), but a plan never survives the first encounter with the enemy, err, customer...

I'll base my guess on what was said at Gen Con, "You won't see a new edition in 2009, 2010, or 2011." Me and the guy next to me looked at each other with our mouths open.

So my guess is 2012 before a "revision" or a new edition (although it may well be muddied by the new core books every year model), unless 4.0 and the DI sells extremely well. I certainly don't see 4.0 failing (even if I'm not along for the ride), but I'm not so sure about the DI.

 

[Toryx]

That would make it much harder for new gamers to join the hobby, would it not?
Take 3.5. Suppose you were a new gamer joining a group that was using the 1st 4 splatbooks, the Spell Compendium, and the PHB2. If you just bought the PHB, your fighter would be MUCH weaker than one designed with Complete Warrior and PHB2. Your wizard would be MUCH weaker than one designed with Complete Arcane and SC. Due to power creep, those books become more or less required if you want to join the hobby.

The more "core" books are published, the higher the entry cost. Am I wrong here?

Actually, I think you are. I've seen a lot of people talking about how the new editions can't possibly be aimed at a younger gaming group because of financial issues. But no one ever seems to consider that relatively speaking, D&D is cheap. Even at 35 dollars per book. If you compare the price of books, paper, dice, and even minatures, that's nothing next to Ipods, Iphones, video game consoles, video games, computers, computer upgrades, computer games, mmorpg subscriptions, and internet access.

Yet young people of all ages are spending thousands of dollars on all that crap year after year.

Compared to the cost of upgrading a computer system to keep up with the increasing hardware demands of WoW, D&D isn't that expensive at all.

 

[HP Dreadnought]

Second, 4e will leave more people playing 3x than 3x left people playing 2e and 4e will thus sell less well than 3x necessitating a quicker turn around to a 5e that can recapture the sales of 3x.

Do you have any facts to back up this assertion? Or are you just saying it because lots of people on the boards are saying they won't switch?

In the first place, the boards are not a representative sample of the gaming public. They are typically much more invested in the game (and therefore the status quo) than the gamer who doesn't go online to research and discuss the hobby.

Secondly, you may not recall, but I vividly remember the boards being FLOODED with nay sayers about the 2.x - 3.0 switch back in the day talking about how they would never switch, how most people felt as they did and predicting the total collapse of the market for D&D products.

Well, 3.x has turned out to be the most profitable edition yet for D&D owners, by far. Furthermore the vast majority of the people who would "never" switch made not just the switch to 3.0, but to 3.5 as well. Some have left the hobby, others stuck with previous editions, and a big chunk of new people have gotten into the hobby since the release of 3.0.

I haven't seen any evidence other that people's loudly stated opinions that this edition will be any different. Just about everyone will switch, and losses will be more than made up by new people to the hobby.

 

[Mistwell]

I am guessing 4e will last longer than 3e for two reasons:

1) Significantly more organization in the long term publishing schedule (A PHB, DMG, MM, and CS every year, and they know that in advance so they can plan it better);

2) The Digital Initiative, which has the potential to reach a larger audience, and commit people more fully to this game than other RPGs.

For those making predictions based on 3.x, I think some of your facts are wrong. 3e sold more than 2e from the things I have read. Later 3e books also sold better than many books in the middle, like Bo9S (which sold very well). The RPG market may have been shrinking in general, but the D&D sales were not shrinking.

 

[JRRNeiklot]

Here's my guess:

4e will come out and sell like hot cakes. People will flock to it because it's new. They'll play it for a while and actually love it because of the new powers and gimmicks they'll have. Then they'll slowly realize how much work it is having 20 round combats at 1st level, having to decide amongst all the kewl golden shower abilities, the wizard continually blasting things like the IDKFA command in Doom. Sales will dry up, and 5e will be Highlander 3 pretending 4e didn't exist. It will hit shelves in August 2012, just before Doomsday.

 

[SteveC]

I am guessing 4e will last longer than 3e for two reasons:

1) Significantly more organization in the long term publishing schedule (A PHB, DMG, MM, and CS every year, and they know that in advance so they can plan it better);

2) The Digital Initiative, which has the potential to reach a larger audience, and commit people more fully to this game than other RPGs.

For those making predictions based on 3.x, I think some of your facts are wrong. 3e sold more than 2e from the things I have read. Later 3e books also sold better than many books in the middle, like Bo9S (which sold very well). The RPG market may have been shrinking in general, but the D&D sales were not shrinking.

I have to mostly agree with ya', Mistwell, especially point one. If you look at the new catalog info for 2008 we don't have very much in the way of 4E material. To me, that's a good thing. Controlling the number of your releases and treating them as products you intend to sell for more than two months is, to my mind, a very good thing.

On the Digital Initiative: I'm not so optimistic on this one. I agree is has fantastic potential, but WotC has yet to produce something for D&D that's computer based that meets my expectations. I think DI will take at least a year to get to a point where it will really be worth looking at, and that's assuming they continue to put resources behind it.

I wouldn't expect a 5E for some time based on this new strategy, but we will likely see revised PHBs before this point, which I'm sure some will call a 4.5. As long as those revisions don't invalidate the previous rules (like in my Call of C'thuhlu model) it's all the same edition to me.

--Steve