D&D 3.x Will 4e last longer than 3e?

[Epic Meepo]

Compared to the cost of upgrading a computer system to keep up with the increasing hardware demands of WoW, D&D isn't that expensive at all.

True, but compared to the cost of playing WoW, the cost of playing both D&D and WoW is higher. If D&D is hoping to lure teens away from WoW altogether, it will fail. It needs to encourage teens to play both D&D and WoW. At that point, the combined cost of both hobbies might become prohibitive.

 

[Roland55]

I think it will be the same, or shorter. I'm not sure they can afford to sustain a 10-year edition length anymore, nor do I think that such a length is all that desirable. I think we're looking at 5-6 years before we see 5E.

I've done no polling, nor have I fit any mathematical models to previous data.

However, my 'gut' agrees with Mr. Ligon...on the short end. I suspect 5 years is the maximum life of this and any future version of D&D.

Happily, we will all eventually learn the right answer.

 

[Brother MacLaren]

Secondly, you may not recall, but I vividly remember the boards being FLOODED with nay sayers about the 2.x - 3.0 switch back in the day talking about how they would never switch, how most people felt as they did and predicting the total collapse of the market for D&D products.

Which boards would these be?
I remember reading the early versions of this site and the USENET group rec.games.frp.dnd (I think), where there was great enthusiasm for 3E.
There was no 2E anymore. The market had already collapsed. The bloated and unbalanced mess that was 2E/2.5 was dead, none of the gaming groups I was part of had embraced 2.5, TSR had gone bankrupt, and there was real concern that D&D would be done for as a hobby.
People were concerned that WotC, who knew only the Magic card games, would turn D&D into something vastly different, but at least it meant a possibility of SOMEONE publishing new material. And ANYTHING had to be better than Skills & Powers.

 

[Delta]

Well, 3.x has turned out to be the most profitable edition yet for D&D owners, by far.

Do you have a source for that? That's very much counter to my understanding that 1E was a whole order of magnitude higher sales than anything that came after it. I've always wished I had a source on specific 3.0 sales/profit figures.

To the original post: I think it's an easy bet on "shorter". I'd probably bet $50 or so that it would shorter and feel pretty safe about that.

 

[marune]

I am guessing 4e will last longer than 3e for two reasons:

1) Significantly more organization in the long term publishing schedule (A PHB, DMG, MM, and CS every year, and they know that in advance so they can plan it better);

2) The Digital Initiative, which has the potential to reach a larger audience, and commit people more fully to this game than other RPGs.

I think the same.

 

[The Little Raven]

Do you have a source for that? That's very much counter to my understanding that 1E was a whole order of magnitude higher sales than anything that came after it. I've always wished I had a source on specific 3.0 sales/profit figures.

I think people incorrectly associate D&D's jump into being noticed by the mainstream (which happened during 1e with all the hype surrounding it) with financial growth, especially in light of Ryan Dancey's article about purchasing TSR and the warehouses full of 1e material they had just sitting around, unsold. Also, according to Charles Ryan in an interview, D&D was selling better a few years back than it was during it's "peak" in the 1980s (link: http://pc.gamespy.com/articles/540/540509p4.html).

 

[Olaf the Stout]

My guess is that 4E will last longer than 3.5e, but not as long as 3.0e and 3.5e did put together.

Olaf the Stout

 

[Ranger REG]

I am guessing 4e will last longer than 3e for two reasons:

1) Significantly more organization in the long term publishing schedule (A PHB, DMG, MM, and CS every year, and they know that in advance so they can plan it better);

We don't really know. So far, they disclose the outline of their plan, but not the details. Even with such outline -- like a PHB every year -- we don't know what each PHB sequel it will spotlight or contain. I'm skeptical.

2) The Digital Initiative, which has the potential to reach a larger audience, and commit people more fully to this game than other RPGs.

For a price. Are you saying this is the reason why 3e didn't work out and thus have a short 8-year lifespan?

For those making predictions based on 3.x, I think some of your facts are wrong. 3e sold more than 2e from the things I have read. Later 3e books also sold better than many books in the middle, like Bo9S (which sold very well). The RPG market may have been shrinking in general, but the D&D sales were not shrinking.

As one who is guilty of having BONS, I have never put that book to good use, fearing that they will overpower the core rules classes.

 

[Ranger REG]

My guess is that 4E will last longer than 3.5e, but not as long as 3.0e and 3.5e did put together.

One can hope that 4.5e or a revision would come out no earlier than 5 years after 4.0e.

 

[Warbringer]

Because I'm practical. And because I'm a Communist.

Contradiction