I mean they can try. But BG3 was successful because:
- It had fantastic writing and characters
- The cast was top notch
- The gameplay was solid and fresh
- Larian is an excellent developer who made a game to appease players not shareholders
- It was a damn good adaptation of 5e
I think the D&D
IP was a very small reason for the success of BG3. In other words, whatever Larian makes next is probably going to be an absolute masterpiece and we know it won’t be D&D.
I think Larian's next one is a bit more of a dice-roll than "probably a masterpiece" because Swen is both very influential within his company, an agent of chaos, and has bad taste (but also seems like a good guy apart from that), and Swen has sort of implied he wants more influence again (than he had with BG3, where he had less influence, it seems than DOS1/2) because he doesn't think he has many more games in him.
Like there are several ways it could go wrong:
1) They don't make a CRPG.
I think from stuff Swen has said there's a reasonable chance they make a different-but-related genre like tactical RPG and this will sell literally 50% or far less as many copies at the same relative quality level. You could make the best Western tactical RPG in history but you're not going to
touch BG3 numbers.
2) Bad setting leading to bad vibes.
Rivellon would be a good example. Rivellon is an ultra-grimdark "
crapsack world" setting. Edgy teenagers of all ages (I know some edgy teens in their 50s...) love this, but they aren't actually that reliable about buying games set in those settings. If BG3 had instead been set in Rivellon, all other things being equal, it would have been a moderate success that people kept going on about but which probably took 5
years to break 10m copies sold, not 5 months. Unfortunately, Swen loves grimdark and sneers at all non-grimdark settings.
I do think they could completely get away with grimdark if they went SF instead of fantasy. A cyberpunk, dieselpunk, steampunk, spacepunk, or w/e setting that was pretty grimdark would probably be a lot more accepted, even then a "straight SF" setting.
3) Bad system leading to unenjoyable combat for non-weirdoes.
DOS2 would be an example. DOS2 has a bizarre, deeply counter-intuitive combat system that requires you to understand the mechanics really well and basically cover the entire screen with flaming surfaces or similar, which constantly making small upgrades to your equipment in a very annoying way that isn't actually well-supported by the game! They got away with this in DOS2 because DOS1's system wasn't as bad, and a lot of reviewers (rather unhelpfully) implied it was basically the same (did they even play it lol? Re-reading some of the reviews the answer is pretty clearly that they spent like 8-10 hours playing it with friends, essentially ignored the mechanics, just placed and exploded barrels, and had a good time but... that was a different era for reviewing). I don't think the level of scrutiny they'd get with a new game would let this slide again. Again unfortunately Swen is a madman here, literally on the eve of BG3's release he was saying on camera that DOS2 had a much better game system than BG3 (!!!), and he was not joking, he clearly believed it. But... maybe he changed his mind after BG3 sold a gazillion copies?
They could also have a system that is really good but just really strange and I think that would cause them some... sales issues.
I mean there are other ways too, but these are the main three "threats" I see. And I think they're real enough that unless they turn out to be releasing a CRPG with an original (non-Rivellon) setting, it's not actually "probable" that they'll make a masterpiece. If it is a CRPG and has an original RPG, I guess it does shift to "probable", but the threat of a terrible weird system is high, especially given Swen's recent comment:
"You'll have plenty of fun" "in a surprising way".
Like bro. Dude. Dude-apotamus. Has that phrase ever actually ended well? Because I don't think so. I think every single time a developer or moviemaker has said something will be "fun in a surprising way!!!", it's been an absolute car crash, and not the sexy David Cronenberg 1996 kind of Crash.
If you just drop that one "in a surprising way" sentence, the whole tweet is cool and non-threatening so maybe I should just act like I never read it lol?