D&D 5E WOTC Production Schedule

[Mercurius]

I pulled together a similar list a few months ago, can't remember which thread though. It would be interesting to see the change in that time though...

Personally, I think that CoS might point to a future opportunity. First, it's holding up well. Second, they released a number of AP before doing the SCAG to tie them together. If it were me, releasing an AP in a different campaign as a test for a potential future sourcebook would be one way to go.

Yes, I agree. It is hard to be experimental with such a limited schedule, but I don't see why they can't do one Realms story arc and one other per year.

It may even be that they're already wanting to diversify, first with the anthology coming out and then I could see later this year either a sylvan/feywild story arc or something that highlights psionics to go along with the rules expansion (assuming that is coming out in the fall). I know they're distancing the Far Realms connection, but maybe they do something with that. Also, one would think a planar story arc is within the next couple years.

So I think many of those "keeping up" are those playing the APs. I have them all, but haven't run any of them. I use them more as sourcebooks.

Yes, me too - and browsing/reading enjoyment.

I think that more books won't impact the sales of the core books. But they probably would impact the sales of the prior non-core book. The more copies you can sell of a given release, the more profitable it is. You've already paid for the development, and larger print runs get better rates. In the past (particularly the TSR years), there were periods where there was something released every month. What I think happened is that the RPG market was growing quickly enough that it masked the fact that they were cannibalizing their own sales. While you'll never reach 100% penetration, where everybody buys every book, you can increase margin and profit.

I understand. But again, they've gone from excess to minimalism; there are stages in-between. Even just in terms of numbers, they've gone from about 15-20 major book releases a year in 3E/4E, to just 3 for 5E. There are a lot of numbers between "15" and "3". A 4-5 book per year release schedule is still very minimalist and shouldn't negatively impact sales of prior books, but allows for more product diversity.

To look at it a different way - if each product costs $50,000 to manufacture, and sells wholesale for $25, then the first 2,000 copied recoup your cost. After that, each sale is a profit. If your typical sales are 500 units/month, then it takes 4 months to recoup your costs and start making money. For the sake of this argument, we'll say there's a fixed market, that is, you always sell 500 units/month.

If you release your next product 4 months after the last one, then just as you are starting to make money, you shift a chunk of your sales to the next product. The core book sales remain the same - new players need those regardless. But you also find that 7 or 8 months down the road you've saturated your market. That is, instead of selling 500 units, you're selling 400 or 300 units. Releasing a new product then bumps you back up to your 500 units/month. You'll still cannibalize some of the older book, but it will still continue to sell over time.

Obviously it's not that simple, but back when TSR was releasing so many products, sales were good, but they weren't making a profit because the next product was taking the sales dollars and they were essentially competing with themselves. Obviously there were a number of other things at play, but it's not uncommon for a company to stumble when they shift from exponential growth in a new industry to a market that has plateaued.

It isn't either/or: either you glut the market with 15-20 books a year (or in 2E days, as many as seventy in one year, 1995), or you have just a few. Secondly, what you say here seems to assume that there is a strict limit to how many books can be sold. I'm guessing that many folks are buying the three books and then using the rest of their RPG fund on other games. Nothing wrong with that, of course!

Again, I'm not complaining about the light release schedule, especially as I prefer it to the old days of gluttony, but I'm just pointing out that it doesn't have to be one extreme or the other, and it still can be minimalist but include more book releases. What I see WotC doing is playing it very cautious. Maybe at some point they'll say, "Hey, I think we can add another book or two per year with an overall positive result."

I would be one of those, but there has been a lot of sourcebook material in the APs, which have also been produced in a way that it's very easy to pull just a section of the adventure out to drop in a different campaign. WotC business model for D&D isn't the only one, obviously, and Pathfinder has found one that works for them.

But WotC is a small part of a very large company. So they have different requirements for their business, and really what makes D&D valuable to Hasbro is the brand. The fact that they can do video games, comics, movies, I think I recall hearing about a potential TV show in development at one point. Now I don't think Hasbro has any interest nor direct input into the business model of WotC in regards to D&D. I think they have indirect input in that they have sales/profit goals or requirements, and it's up to the WotC team to meet those.

Yes, understood. And I think you point to the core of the matter: The D&D book schedule is largely about fanning the flames of the brand, keeping the spark alive so that they can explore other avenues of revenue. I also think their strategy is very much a corporate one. I'm guessing if WotC was its own company with the same people involved, they would--for better or worse--run it like gamers, and probably produce more books than they are now. Purely speculative, of course.

Of course, #66 in books (not RPGs, not games, but all books) is amazing 2 1/2 years later. And I think with all of the UA articles being released, another Core book of some sort is likely, although it's quite possible those rules could be presented as a campaign book too.

BTW - have you ever looked at the top 100 at Amazon?

https://www.amazon.com/best-sellers-books-Amazon/zgbs/books/ref=pd_dp_ts_b_1#1

The PHB is #61 right now, and there are very few books that aren't less than 6 months to 1 year old, much less 2 1/2. There are a few older ones, but not many. The Pathfinder books I looked at were in the 30,000+ range (although Amazon may not be their primary outlet).

Yeah, it is quite impressive! That would imply that the game is actually growing, that the D&D fan base is actually expanding.

 

[Mercurius]

It won't be required to play to the same degree as the DMG or the Monster Manual, both of which are selling half as many copies as the PHB.

A big expansion probably will sell well. Initially and over time. The problem is a third or fourth big expansion. A single big expansion will sell initially and over time as the clear expansion. But when you get a third or fourth book it created competition and confusion.
(Try asking a dozen Pathfinder players what book to buy second or third as a player.)

Yes, I hear that. But what if that big expansion comes out ever three years? The core books came out in 2014, so maybe we're getting a big expansion in 2017, and then 2020, and by that point we're closing in on the 50th anniversary of D&D, so you know something big will come out in 2024, either a new edition or maybe just a commemorative 50th anniversary edition ("5.2"). But my point is, a big expansion every three years shouldn't have the negative effect you mention, and could actually give a nice injection of fresh blood.

I like the idea of each expansion being somewhat of a grab-bag, but also centered around a theme. So maybe this one will be psionics and player options for pre-established classes. Maybe 2020 will be the planes and epic play.

Agreed. But not everyone. Or even most people.
And, really, the point of game books is to use them at the game table. If they're just to collect/ read they could be a reprint of an earlier edition book. Or something like Dungeonology.

I think the point of game books is to enjoy them however you want or can. I haven't played in a regular group for a couple years and just recently moved to a different state and haven't been able to get a game going yet. So one way I enjoy D&D is buying and browsing/reading books. And I imagine for many who do have active games, books are fun to read when you're not playing.

Paizo expects a lot fewer sales. A LOT fewer. Like a tenth.
Plus they're putting Pathfinder on hold for a quarter to launch Starfinder; they're not going to do that for fun or on a whim. It takes waaaaay longer to make a whole new game than just a new book. They had to have started work on in late 2015 to be ready to announce in mid-2016. So Pathfinder had to have been lagging as far back as then. What are its sales like now?

I have no idea. But they're doing well enough to support however many employees they have--30+?--and with no sign of demise or contraction.

Board games are probably the best business model. I've said that before.
Meeting once every other week and playing for four hours and you can get through a LOT more games of Catan and see a lot more permutations than D&D, but they don't have monthly or even annual expansions to Catan.

Catan is a much simpler game than D&D. And of course some games are designed with continual expansion in mind, because it is how they make money. Take X-Wing, for instance. Buying ships is addictive and a real money sink. Now of course eventually they'll run out of canonical ships, but then they can design new ones.

Or you can look at fantasy games like Talisman or Runebound or Descent - they have plenty of expansions, which open up and diversify the game without negatively impacting the core game experience.

 

[Ilbranteloth]

I understand. But again, they've gone from excess to minimalism; there are stages in-between. Even just in terms of numbers, they've gone from about 15-20 major book releases a year in 3E/4E, to just 3 for 5E. There are a lot of numbers between "15" and "3". A 4-5 book per year release schedule is still very minimalist and shouldn't negatively impact sales of prior books, but allows for more product diversity.

It isn't either/or: either you glut the market with 15-20 books a year (or in 2E days, as many as seventy in one year, 1995), or you have just a few. Secondly, what you say here seems to assume that there is a strict limit to how many books can be sold. I'm guessing that many folks are buying the three books and then using the rest of their RPG fund on other games. Nothing wrong with that, of course!

Again, I'm not complaining about the light release schedule, especially as I prefer it to the old days of gluttony, but I'm just pointing out that it doesn't have to be one extreme or the other, and it still can be minimalist but include more book releases. What I see WotC doing is playing it very cautious. Maybe at some point they'll say, "Hey, I think we can add another book or two per year with an overall positive result."

I don't disagree, I'm really pointing out (probably more to others than you), that there are sound business reasons behind their plan. The reality is that avoiding pulling sales from prior releases is just a part of it. The real answer is that the people who are held accountable to such decisions are the ones that also have all of the information that goes into making those decisions. The sales numbers so far seem to support their decision as a good one.

While a "4-5 book per year release schedule...shouldn't negatively impact sales of prior books" sounds reasonable, they have determined otherwise, at least so far.

 

[Parmandur]

Saying three a year is minimalist is also assuming the point to be proven: they could release two a year, one a year, or even only something every other year! Three may be the "sweet spot" compromise between a theoretical minimum and bloat...

 

[BMaC]

As was pointed out in the Yawning Portal thread, we have now reached a point of saturation in 5th edition for large adventures paths (everyone of them except Strahd a realms-wide potential cataclysm). I was talking to some people last month who are brand new to 5th and just starting a group. They were having a hard time figuring out which adventure path to play for the next six or so months (their pace). Indeed on reddit you see 'which AP to play' threads frequently. There is not bloat as such but we are certainly on the brink of adventure path bloat.