I'm A Banana
Potassium-Rich
Aezoc said:In my mind, yes. I don't pretend to have any insight into how WotC sees it, but from a consumer's PoV, the end state of 3/3.5e 3rd party publishing was much better than the state right after release.
W0rd. Heck, Paizo apparently had so much success that they're not willing to totally jump ship just quite yet. You don't do that with something you're NOT successful with.
My pure speculation is that there will be effectively a two-tiered liscence. The GSL will be more restrictive, and it might boil down to "Make D&D supplements for us!" We definately won't see an SRD or anything like that, which is a bit of a shame, but only a bit. Many d20 companies will use the GSL to publish D&D supplements, things like monster manuals, campaign settings, cultural settings, things that WotC won't be really supplying to the market. There won't be a 4e flood, but I see different niches being served. In fact, the new definition of "core" might be advantageous for this, because it might allow 3rd party people to make stuff based off of WotC's newer supplements, too, to prevent re-inventing the wheel a bit.
The other liscence will come with d20 Modern 2nd Edition. This one will be much more open. d20M2e will be more of a kit. It will probably include the ability to take it into d20 Fantasy and d20 Future and other genres easily. This will be where much of the Interesting Things with the OGL will be happening.
So companies who want to make another Monster Manual will use the GSL. Companies who want to reverse-engineer the rules like True 20 or Spycraft or Mutants and Masterminds might be better off using the OGL and the new d20 Modern SRD, which, I'm guessing, will take a lot of the lessons learned in 4e and apply them going forward.