Graf said:
If wizards "maintains quality" then I'd buy 4e.
Without competition from 3rd parties though quality will suffer (it's just a fact of life).
3.x was good because wizards had to work for their marginal customer; they had to have higher production values, smarter/more creative designers.
If they produced poor books people had alternatives, sales numbers fell.
If it's completely closed Hasbro will have them turning out 5 books a month with nary an editor or a playtester in sight.
When you live quarter to quarter and you're the only game in town things can get bad fast.
IMHO natch.
That argument doesn't track. Sure, competition forces companies to make better games. But, seeing what White Wolf did with Exalted made D&D better. With 3rd party D&D products, not so much. With the OGL, any crunch put out could be swiped by WotC, so that's free design, but the vast majority of it just didn't work for D&D. As for fluff, that couldn't be used anyway as it was Product Identity. But, you can't copyright ideas, so they're up for grabs too.
Supply and demand. If people buy everything WotC puts out, they will ramp up the production schedule. If people don't buy everything, they will cut back. Gluts of product are caused by the publisher attempting to meet demand, then demand falling off. When the publisher puts out too much (i.e. more than the market can bear) they lose money and can go out of business. Open or closed has nothing to do with how many books WotC will put out. Sure, without all the 3rd party products, they might put out a few more types of products (more campaign settings, adventures, etc) but it won't cause them to put out 5 books a month.
The vast majority of gamers go to the bookstore and pick up the books on the shelf, not from the net. Most of the 3rd party stuff is POD or pdf only. There's nothing wrong with that, but it's a limited market. Then there's the groups that won't ever touch 3rd party stuff with a 10 meter cattle prod. Either way, the 3rd party stuff is an exceptionally small and marginal market.
I don't need Iron Heroes because I have D&D. I don't need Pathfinder because I have D&D. I didn't ever hear of either until I came here. I went to the store, bought the books there (WotC only on the shelves) and went home to play. Completely unaware that there were alternatives. And time after time the quality I've seen is nothing compared to WotC books. The 3rd party people need the editors and playtesters.
Poor quality = poor sales. That's why WotC books outsell all comers. Even the most randomly obscure WotC book out-strips the most wildly popular 3rd party D&D book.