10:1 illegal downloads

[Krensky]

I think this decision does decrease the amount of sharing out PDFs on illegal download sites.

If the PDFs are no longer sold legally, and you know for sure your copy is illegal and easily recognized as such (because it's never been released legally as a PDF), and you also know they are going after illegal downloads, you are less likely to share out that file. Less sharing it means fewer people downloading it and slower download rates, which decreases the spread of that PDF.

That is an amazingly wishful position. WotC's choice will prevent 0-hour pirating, barring more inside jobs. It won't cut into the amount of pirating done, however.

 

[Scribble]

Baen Book's experience stands against your argument though. They sell ebooks, and many of them are also available at the same quality online for free either at their site or at one of the many places that has legally and with Baen's permission, posted the Baen CDs. They still sell lots of ebooks, hardcovers, and paperbacks and pay better royalties on ebooks then other publishers.

Don't know much about Baen Books to really comment. So you're saying they show that offering the same product for free does not sway people who would otherwise pay for that product to download the free copy instead?

A few questions:

1. Which products do they sell and offer free at the same time?
2. What kind of books do they sell? (Mainstream or Independant?)
3. What is the business model? (Is it a "pay what you think it's worth" type of thing?)
4. Do they do a lot of business, or are they a pretty small copmany? (With a limited but loyal client base)

I wonder if Morrus would be able to answer: Are the majority of ENworld members that routinely use the site community supporters?

 

[Scribble]

So now he's not going to buy the PDF not in favor of an equal but free option, but because he can't, so he's... either going to pirate a scan (if he wants to play D&D with it) or not play Dungeons & Dragons.

Unless he's the kind of person who also owns a physical copy, as I said. He's not going to suddenly transform from a gamer who uses solely the PDFs to game into a gamer that uses solely the hardcopies to game.

Where did I say transform them into a player that uses the hard copy?

I think part of the plan will be for WoTC to offer a product that is comparable, and offers the features the buyer of the PDF is looking for, but has slightly more control. And by control I don't mean DRM. DRM doesn't work, and just pisses people off. (It's like selling the user a car without a steering wheel because it makes the car harder to steal.)

As a purchaser/user of PDFs I'd be fine if they made a few changes to the Compendium. (Like mainly adding all the rules that aren't currently in the database.)

I would prefer it if they updated it so I didn't have to be online to use it (like the CB) but already the thing is seeing a TON more use then my PDFs for game prep. And since it's integrated into other features of the DDI it has even more use to me then just a PDF alone ever had.

(Really I wish all the 3pp would get together and build their own compendium I could buy a subscription to.)

 

[Voadam]

I think this decision does decrease the amount of sharing out PDFs on illegal download sites.

If the PDFs are no longer sold legally, and you know for sure your copy is illegal and easily recognized as such (because it's never been released legally as a PDF), and you also know they are going after illegal downloads, you are less likely to share out that file.

Do you mean countries where it is allegedly not illegal to copy? I would think copying from a pdf or from a book (scanning) would be irrelevant to whether they consider it legal or not. I would think most scanned books were bought legally and not stolen.

I don't see any reason to believe there will be any change about the perception of legality of downloading pdf copies.

People before knew that they were downloading unauthorized copies.

I would even argue that scanned copies are a lot more anonymous than copies of watermarked pdfs.

 

[Lonely Tylenol]

But how does it compare to the sales that are lost due to piracy?? That is up to a judge to decide after each side presents their numbers in combination with various studies and experts to "prove" that they are right.

It's not up to a judge to decide. It's an actual matter of fact. However, the people who have the best data are also the people who have an interest in artificially inflating the numbers of lost sales in order to secure larger awards in court. We may never find out what the effects of piracy on sales are, since that information is essentially a trade secret.

 

[mudbunny]

It's not up to a judge to decide. It's an actual matter of fact. However, the people who have the best data are also the people who have an interest in artificially inflating the numbers of lost sales in order to secure larger awards in court. We may never find out what the effects of piracy on sales are, since that information is essentially a trade secret.

It isn't a matter of fact on the number of pdf sales that were lost due to piracy. Each side will have an estimate. WotC will have a large number, the other side will have a small number. The judge will then decide whether he believes WotC, the other side, or feels that the number is somewhere in the middle.

 

[Lonely Tylenol]

It isn't a matter of fact on the number of pdf sales that were lost due to piracy. Each side will have an estimate. WotC will have a large number, the other side will have a small number. The judge will then decide whether he believes WotC, the other side, or feels that the number is somewhere in the middle.

It is a matter of fact. There is some objective number of PDF sales that were not completed because the potential purchaser got hold of a pirated PDF and subsequently decided not to purchase. That number might be 0, 12, or 350,000. But there is an actual number of losses. The number of actual losses is not a matter of opinion. However, I don't think that there is any way to determine what that number is. We would have to track every person who ever downloaded a pirate PDF and determine whether they would have purchased otherwise. It's possible, but logistically inconceivable.

Anyone claiming to have a number of losses is guessing. Anyone claiming that they know for sure is lying. And just because a judge says something doesn't mean it's true.

 

[mudbunny]

You do realize that we are saying the exact same thing. I am saying that because it is pretty much impossible to determine with *any* sort of accuracy the number of lost purchases due to piracy that it is a guess. You are saying the same thing.

And I didn't mean to imply that because the judge decides that the actual number is X that it becaomes the actual number, just that for the purposes of damages, etc, the judge determines what X is based on his/her opinion of the various experts brought forth by each side.

 

[Krensky]

Don't know much about Baen Books to really comment. So you're saying they show that offering the same product for free does not sway people who would otherwise pay for that product to download the free copy instead?

More or less. Eric Flint and Jim Baen wrote a good bit on it. Baen in particular was rabidly opposed to DRM. So much so that when you get an ebook from them you get it in RTF, HTML, and in three different ereader/pda formats, but not PDF.

1. Which products do they sell and offer free at the same time?

It changes based on what's in their free library and what wound up on the most recent CD. There is a lot for free and a lot for sale. Most of the stuff that is both is from the CDs which you can acquire for free from the internet or buy from them. They have found that giving ebooks away for free or cheap drives up new hardback and back catalog sales.

Free library: Baen Free Library
One of the CD sharing sites: baencd at the Fifth Imperium
Their storefront: WebScription Ebooks

2. What kind of books do they sell? (Mainstream or Independant?)

They are a scence fiction and fantasy house, but they're a mainstrean publisher. They've published works by Poul Anderson, Larry Niven, Jerry Pournelle, C.J. Cherryh, Andre Norton, David Drake, Eric Flint, David Weber, Spider Robinso, Mercedes Lackey, S.M. Stirling and others. They are independent in the literal sense, they're not publicly traded or part of a conglomerate. This has something to do with their success.

3. What is the business model? (Is it a "pay what you think it's worth" type of thing?)

Pretty standard, other then the amount they give away and the prices of what they sell. Most ebooks are $6.00. Ebooks whoose hardback came with a Baen CD entitle you to an ISO of said CD. ARC are available for $15.00, and every moth there's a bundle of numer (or, rather, about a third of a number) of books that well be relesed in a few months for $15.00. They sell paperbacks and hardcovers through normal channels as well. Ebooks are DRM free and available in six formats, including RTF and HTML.

4. Do they do a lot of business, or are they a pretty small copmany? (With a limited but loyal client base)

According to Wikipedia (citing Locus):

In 2005 Baen eighth most productive publisher in the genre, with 72 books published (of which 40 were original titles). It was the sixth most active publisher of the dedicated SF imprints, and the fifth most popular SF publisher based on the number of bestseller list appearances.

Baen Books - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

They also give free paper books to soldiers and free ebooks to the disabled.

For some more in depth discussion, see Eric Flint's essays at the free library and as editor of Baen's magazine.

Prime Palaver Index
Authors | Eric Flint | Jim Baen's Universe

In particular, this essay: http://baens-universe.com/articles/The_Problem_is_Legal_Scarcity__not_Illegal_Greed
And this one: http://baens-universe.com/articles/Foam_and_Froth_and_Mighty__Upside-down__Pyramids

 

[Wicht]

Baen's position (the editor, not the company) was that readers would get tired of reading a 300 page book on a computer screen and would, after they were interested in his books, buy the physical copy to enjoy it better. The free books Baen puts online are thus mostly the books that they feel will be their bestsellers (or which they know will be their best sellers). David Weber's Honor series is, IIRC, their best line and Weber their most popular author and his works are routinely part of the free books (last I checked).

For what it's worth, Baen may be 8th in sales but I tend to trust their editorial selection better than some other publishers. When I scan a book shelf of sci-fi and fantasy books I look for the Baen logo first.