Sure it's not exact, but it's in the ball park isn't it?
Thing is, it is a pretty small ballpark. If the estimate is off by two, we're dropping from talking about a 50/50 chance (which some folks find acceptable, though I find a bit short for what is basically a PC encounter power), down to a 40% chance - which is where most folks will just punt and try something else if they can.
Your assertion is noted.
It does not match my personal experience - and that makes sense, because "typical" in this case is a matter of encounter and adventure design. If your GM isn't pitting you against the equivalent of PCs of your own level, this assertion may not be relevant.
At first level, your average Wookie Soldier will have a Will save of 10. The Dark Jedi is wandering around with a +12 to that check (trained, skill focus, 14 Cha).
I already said that yes, if they stack it on early, that feat gives people a big pump up for a while. We'd already mentioned that a level limit might do the trick.
By tenth level, the Wookie has managed to get his Will save up to 19, and the Dark Jedi has a +17 to his check. Still favors the Dark Jedi.
This is kind of a cherry-picked, worst case example, isn't it?
I would like to remember that we are talking about what
house rules should be applied. That "people" (generic masses) can abuse the point isn't really relevant, because for this one game, we are talking about a handful - a handful the GM may know personally, and at least can speak to before play begins.
That a thing *can* be abused, in a general sense, doesn't matter when you can determine if it *will* be abused in your particular case, does it?
By twentieth level, the Wookie is at Will of 29, and he Dark Jedi is at +22. Still favours the Dark Jedi! (Actually, using skill bonuses, the Dark Jedi may well be at +24...)
Yes, and meanwhile, how many droids can that same wookie tear apart with his bare paws?
We have to be careful when we consider balance in game design - do you really want balance that says, "No choice you make in building your character can leave you vulnerable"? Yes, the Wookie has a low wisdom. That player chose to be a wookie, though, and he's gotten benefits from it that are being ignored in this analysis. The wookie is vulnerable to the Jedi, but someone else is vulnerable to the wookie. Rock-scissors-paper is one form of balance that is often seen as acceptable.
It's not very hard at all to target the weak defense of a character - and it'll be weak.
Well, here's the thing...
If a *PC* took that spread of powers, so he or she could *always* target the weak save (which assumes he knows which one is weak), that PC... now can't do a whole lot else. Jedi *stink* for skill choice, so you've now created a one-trick-pony character. Yes, it is very good at what it does, and it doesn't do a whole lot else. How bored is that player going to be?
And yeah, he's sure to get his one power hit in. But he only gets the one good shot for the encounter, unless he starts spending force points. And that one shot can be countered by one not-dark Jedi with Rebuke.
So, to me it isn't so clear-cut as the one example may make it seem.
Just found the stats for the 14th level version of my Star Wars character:
Miles - Noble 10/Officer 4
Fort 25, Ref 29, Will 30.
Best skills: +21.
Attack: blaster +13
Relevant feats: Improved Defenses.
At this point, my best defense (Will) is giving a 50/50 chance against a regular Force User. However, I'm still utterly weak with Fort.
Yes, but... what's your best skill give you against that force user?
You look like you're playing Miles Vorkosigan, there. Miles is an intelligence officer and fleet commander type. So, that skill should give him... a mercenary fleet against that Jedi?
The Deflect talent is notably weak against fire from capitol ships, you know.
14th is about where the maths finally begins to work for skills vs defenses, btw. That's a lot of levels where it *doesn't* work.
Correction - that's where the math begins to work - *if* the force user takes Skill Focus very early. In my party, none of us took Skill Focus at 1st level - when player behavior and choice is a large part of the question, it isn't only a question of maths, and you may not need to fix the rules to get what you want out of the game.
I know the OP didn't want to belabor this point, but I got here for a reason - to make the point that you don't necessarily need to beat the rules into submission just because math doesn't work in some theoretical cases. Those cases may not appear in your game!