WotC Roll 4 Combat: Hasbro/WotC was offered 20 million for D&D at the nadir of 4e.

[GreyLord]

Money made x4 or x5 is what you should be looking at...and that is IF someone is wanting to sell.

If not, it's going to need to be a LOT higher.

 

[Zardnaar]

Money made x4 or x5 is what you should be looking at...and that is IF someone is wanting to sell.

If not, it's going to need to be a LOT higher.

30% premium?

 

[darjr]

where does the ‘need’ come from and do they say how they arrive at the 500 or 700M?

The need is what he thinks Hasbro has to sell it at, not sure why. The 500m and 700m are back the handkerchief estimates of what someone might offer or pay. Though I think Stephen has out more thought into it than that.

I do find it cool the Lin essentially comes up with the same figure off the cuff, 500m

 

[bedir than]

Thats not WotC money. You're counting Larian and Paramount. The movie was Worth-25 million to WotC tests a loss/tax write off.

NO, I'm not counting that.

And yes, I know what an impairment charge is. That's not a full loss

 

[darjr]

Just watched a video about the follow up to Art and Arcana.

Apparently 3 to 60 million players from the ashes of 4E. Their words.

That indicates they lost half the player base.

I consider 20 million a lowball offer but it's not completely out of left field.

Have a link for that video?

 

[GreyLord]

30% premium?

If they don't want to sell...probably higher than 30% of what they made annually.

If they are willing to sell...

Let's take the 150 million figure (not that this is what we should use, but it was a number put up in this topic as a number put out there). You are looking at a minimum offer of 600 to 750 million for something to maybe be acceptable. AS long as it's not on fire, that is something to consider (IMO). If it's on fire, that's an entirely different position (on fire meaning it's a sinking ship, it's going down pretty quick, it may be worth something now but will be worthless soon...etc). D&D is not a sinking ship right now (once again IMO).

If they don't want to sell...you are going to need to find what will make them WILLING to sell. 30% premium isn't going to do that...that's laughable.

3 Billion may not even be enough, or it may be overkill. It depends on the situation, emotions involved, reasonable accountants involved...etc.

 

[Zardnaar]

Have a link for that video?

Spun it off.

https://www.enworld.org/threads/out-of-the-ashes-3-to-60-million-players.701632/

 

[mamba]

It's just what they thought it was worth.

I tend to agree if I was using my own money. Opportunity cost at a billion for example there's other things I would rather invest in.

yeah, 500 seems low, but 700M to 1B probably gets you in the ballpark

 

[mamba]

It's over 500 mill in revenue a year, this year, using the public statements that are enforced by law.

are you sure about that? WotC’s first three quarters amounted to 1.1B, and D&D is not a third or so of that when extrapolated to a full year

 

[ECMO3]

Revenue might be 150 million but high over heads. Opportunity cost could make more doing something else that's a lot safer eg shares or property.

That's assuming revenue holds at 150 million as well. If I'm dropping 500 million I'm wanting 50 milion profit minimum per year approx.

I would agree. WOTC also has made some decisions regarding IP and efficiency that really undercut profitability.

Their stance against AI art is really going to make it difficult for them to compete in terms of a cost basis in the future.