D&D 5E NPC Ability Checks and Stunting or...Ogre Smash

This is going to run long so fair warning. Turn back now if ye of TLDR heart. Also, if you aren't into parsing text ("you're overthinking it...I HATE PEOPLE LIKE YOU"), again, turn back now.

I'm going to start with my parsing of the nature and procedure of the system's DC setting:

1) During the beginning stages of 5e's genesis, the developers (primarily Mike, Trevor, Jeremy and a wee bit of Monte before he ejected) wrote consistently about (a) natural language (to be interpreted in its standard use form, contrast with evolved slang or specialist jargon) and (b) setting/class/environmental components (D&D's "story" as they often put it) being established first with bounded system maths to be carved out after all the "story" was pinned down. GMs would extrapolate from a common baseline (which is either the average person or the lowest level adventurer) and derive numbers for all these "story" components (eg apply DCs) on a ruling-by-ruling basis.

In game jargon, this would be the design of an "objective" (but rulings-based) framework. Contrast with systems in which the game's maths chassis has primacy and the fiction is derived genre-wise around those numbers (mutable/ malleable fiction or fluff).

So I look at the rulebooks through this prism.

2) So lets look at the Ability Check system and how things intersect.

PHB 173
Each of a creature's abilities has a score. a number that defines the magnitude of that ability. An ability score is not just a measure of innate capabilities, but also encompasses a creature's training and competence in activities related to that ability. A score of 10 or 11 is the normal human average, but adventurers and many monsters are a cut above average in most abilities. A score of 18 is the highest that a person usually reaches.

The MM Ability Check/Scores section just refers you to the PHB, so nothing from the MM.

Alright, because D&D is still laden with game jargon, we eschew "natural language" for a moment and provide the gist of what Ability Scores mean. We also learn the normal human average is 10 or 11, but adventurers and many monsters are a cut above. Makes sense. Either the former or the latter are the baseline for our "natural language" DC framework.

Of note, they use the terms "normal human average", "adventurers", and "a person" when speaking to the reader. I think this is just supposed to be "general stuff" because this doesn't help procedurally. From a GM utility perspective and reading this through a "natural language" prism, I gain nothing here when attempting to discern/establish a DC baseline (Easy, Medium Hard for whom?) for play use. From above, we know these three classifications aren't meant to be used interchangeably.

On the next page, we get:

PHB 174
An ability check tests a character's or monster's innate talent and training in an effort to overcome a challenge. The DM calls for an ability check when a character or monster attempts an action (other than an attack) that has a chance of failure *. When the outcome is uncertain, the dice determine the results.

Ok, play procedures. Roll the dice only when there are prospects of failure/outcomes are uncertain.

Makes sense.

Note * for later

The DMG clarifies and expounds:

DMG 237
A character doesn't normally need to make a Dexterity check to walk across an empty room or a Charisma check to order a mug of ale. Only call for a roll if there is a meaningful consequence for failure. When deciding whether to use a roll, ask yourself two questions:

Is a task so easy and so free of conflict and stress that there should be no chance of failure? Is a task so inappropriate or impossible- such as hitting the moon with an arrow-that it can't work?

If the answer to both of these questions is no, some kind of roll is appropriate.

DMG 238
If you've decided that an ability check is called for, then most likely the task at hand isn't a very easy one. Most people can accomplish a DC 5 task with little chance of failure.

and

A DC 25 task is very hard for low-level characters to accomplish, but becomes more reasonable after 10th level or so. A DC 30 check is nearly impossible for most low-level characters.

"Meaningful consequence of failure." "Meaningful consequence" in a roleplaying game can mean (a) material relevance to the resolution mechanics (immediate or subsequent), (b) story implications, or most often, (c) both.

So we don't just roll dice when a task simply has "a chance of failure" as the PHB outlines. The task (and its chance of failure) (ii) needs to be conflict/stress-laden and (iii) have meaningful consequences (a, b, or c above).

Further, there is an Auto-Success Variant for GMs that don't want to adjudicate "conflict/stress-laden" and "meaningful consequences." Rather, auto-sucess ("say yes") is systematized whereby an action declaration automatically succeeds when it entails an Ability Check with a DC less than or equal to the relevant Ability Score minus 5.

Back to establishing a baseline for "natural language" DCs associated with Easy, Medium, Hard (et al). In the above citations (which attempt to facilitate coherent adjudication for when dice-rolling is warranted and attendant DC establishment), the designers use the terms "character", "most people", and "low-level characters". We know these are not interchangeable so deciphering a standardized baseline becomes a wee bit opaque. I guess they're telling us it doesn't matter, use whatever you like (which is odd because one of the tenets of the bounded accuracy chassis was to control number inflation, in part, because story elements get rendered irrelevant due to associated number discrepancies). I think using "most people" or "normal human average" (+0) makes much more sense because the variance of modifiers in a "low level character" is relatively considerable. But, vagaries, house rules, and "make the game your own" was a notorious charm of AD&D, so fair enough.

Finally, there is also the "off message", rather subtle insinuation that story/environmental items aren't, in fact, objectively evaluated. "Becomes reasonable after 10th level or so." Eh? Soooooooooo...associated DCs scale with characters? Fiction related to Hard DCs becomes "reasonable"...rendering it...Medium..or...no? Is this meant to inform adjudication/play procedure or is this just..."stuff"? Regardless, this bit interacts wonkily with "natural language" and the primacy of fixed story elements (rather than mutable fiction/malleable fluff).



Alright, so we have an Ogre battling the PCs in a stand of trees. As GM we want our Ogre to shove over a small (30 ft high), medium canopy (20 ft diameter), Sawtimber tree (lets say nearly a foot diameter trunk at 4.5 feet up) onto a couple of PCs.

A lot goes into toppling a tree (beyond its size, health, and lean); the magnitude of applied force, leverage (at what height force is applied), robustness of root plate:soil/earth interface on opposite side of applied force. Think of a tree as a weighted cylinder with a broad, heavy base which is buried. You have a lot to contend with to knock it over. But if that base is destabilized on the opposite side of the applied force, the job becomes much, much easier.

If Easy, Medium, Hard, Very Hard, Nearly Impossible are fixed story elements in our setting, centered around "normal human average" (or even "low level characters" if we wish it), what natural language descriptor would we associate with pushing this tree over? Hard? Very Hard? Nearly Impossible?

Beyond the obvious genre tropes of Ogres' tremendous feats of strength (which in a system with mutable fluff centered around genre logic, such as Dungeon World, this is all you need to legitimize your move for your NPC), they have a couple of things going for them:

* Size Large is a very minor assist with leverage as they're applying force probably 3ish feet higher than a standard human (however we want to adjudicate that - Advantage?).
* Size large doubles the values of Lift, Push, Drag, and Carrying Capacity (1140 lbs for Ogre).

Unfortunately, even a tree this size (without a destabilized root plate) needs several thousand pounds of force with much better leverage than the Ogre can offer.

Further, they also have two significant resolution mechanics issues going against them:

* At 19 Strength they only have +4 modifier. Evaluating against the Variant Auto-Success, that would mean they only auto-succeed on DC 15 tasks.
* They aren't proficient in Athletics and they don't have any sort of Burst of Strength/Rage ability to augment their Strength modifier.

So, while it seems "in-genre", system-wise, the GM move of "the Ogre slams into a small tree, toppling it over onto you (!)" doesn't appear to be a permissible move.

But lets say we just say "screw it" (5e definitely observes the AD&D 2e/White Wolf adage of "if the rules don't support the story you want to tell, out go the rules!"). Or, we can simply use ad hoc justification (either to players or ourselves if need be) of "the root plate of this particular tree was compromised...and it had forward lean!"

So how do we go about doing this? Let us see the DMG example for for adjudicating such improvised actions:

DMG 5
The rules don't account for every possible situation that might arise during a typical D&D session. For example, a player might want his or her character to hurl a brazier full of hot coals into a monster's face. How you determine the outcome of this action is up to you. You might tell the player to make a Strength check, while mentally setting the Difficulty Class (DC) at 15. If the Strength check is successful, you then determine how a face full of hot coals affects the monster. You might decide that it deals ld4 fire damage and imposes disadvantage on the monster's attack rolls until the end of its next turn. You roll the damage die (or let the player do it), and the game continues.

How does this work as a procedurally coherent template for stunting that creates thematic fiction and changes the situation dynamically, thereby creating interesting decision-points for players? Well...

1) Let's go back to * above. "The DM calls for an ability check when a character or monster attempts an action (other than an attack) that has a chance of failure." The above example is that of an ability check...which serves as an attack...errr?

2) No part of this action resolution references either DMG 120 or DMG 249.

Alright, so what to do? I think the best approach is the following procedure:

Step 1) Establish a relevant Ability Check and an associated DC. Use Success At a Cost (DMG 242), but disregard the failure by 1 or 2 prerequisite. The last thing you want is punitive compound probability math rendering stunting dead on arrival because of opportunity cost that is too steep. Make your Ability Check and proceed to the next phase. Fail it and proceed to the next phase but with some sort of consequence; a cost (a condition, or hit points, or being put in a bad spot), a lesser result (reduced effectiveness of attack such as less targets, lower damage or lesser/no control rider), a thematic/tactical choice by the opposition that mitigates the outcome somewhat. For instance:

Our tree-toppling Ogre is rolling Str (Athletics) against DC whatever the heck you deem fitting. Ogre fails. As GM, granting the players the choice in adjudication/fiction is pretty much always going to be the best way to go. And this can intersect with action economy decisions (spend your Reaction to do x due to opening) or, better still, this can intersect with Ideals, Bonds, Flaws, Traits and the Inspiration mechanics.

GM: The berserk Ogre has shouldered the tree with a mighty charge! Its toppling over onto Fighter McFighterson and Manoftheclotherton! Oh noooooes! <the Fighter. maybe he's a knight, has some noble Ideal of sacrifice or some kind of Bond with the Cleric> Good Sir McFighterson, your courage and commitment to duty distills the moment in perfect clarifying detail for you. With the alacrity of your protective impulse, you can shove your companion out of the way (Cleric won't have to make a Saving Throw from the AoE). However, you'll suffer Disadvantage to your own Saving Throw!

This would give an opportunity for the player to (a) earn Inspiration, (b) express their thematic archetype, (c) positively impact the situation, (d) perhaps spend prior earned Inspiration to undo that Disadvantage.

Step 2) Consult the NPC's stat block along with DMG 120 and DMG 249 to determine attack/saving throw + damage expression (stepping it back for AoE or a rider).



Alright, that's enough from me. Have at it. I'll check back in in a few days to see what folks have to say and acknowledge [MENTION=6793093]Jeff Albertson[/MENTION] 's laugh (I guess that qualifies as preemptive acknowledgement).
 

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There's a lot of things I don't follow in the above. I can say that I ask for checks based on what I want the probability distribution to look like.

If I want it to be hard for an average joe but easy for an expert, I'll ask for lots of easy checks, e.g. five DC 5 Strength (Athletics) checks to climb this here cliff.

If I want it to be hard for an average joe and still pretty hard for an expert, I'll ask for one difficult check, e.g. a DC 18 Constitution (Athletics) check to hold your breath the whole time you're swimming underwater across this here river.

I pay zero attention to the PHB textual descriptors like "Easy" and "Hard" because they are vaguely-defined and don't mean anything. Only the numbers have a clear meaning.

Finally, there is also the "off message", rather subtle insinuation that story/environmental items aren't, in fact, objectively evaluated. "Becomes reasonable after 10th level or so." Eh? Soooooooooo...associated DCs scale with characters? Fiction related to Hard DCs becomes "reasonable"...rendering it...Medium..or...no? Is this meant to inform adjudication/play procedure or is this just..."stuff"? Regardless, this bit interacts wonkily with "natural language" and the primacy of fixed story elements (rather than mutable fiction/malleable fluff).

I think of that as a half-hearted attempt to describe probability curves, not a normative direction that you're supposed to somehow alter the DC based on the PC's level. A 10th level character often will have a way to pass that DC 18 Athletics check, via Bardic Inspiration or Enhance Ability or Bend Luck or Dark One's Own Luck or some combination of all of these. But you don't/shouldn't raise the DC to account for his level. The task is what it is.

RE: Ogre tree-pushing, I wouldn't resolve that with a pure ability check. I'd use an ability check to let you momentarily exceed the normal limits of your musculature--e.g. Strength check DC 10 to shove twice as hard as you can lift. The tree-pushing then would be a function both of the creature's raw Strength/encumbrance and an ability check. For the tree as described (12" thick five feet off the ground) I'd make it maybe DC 15 for an Ogre or Str 19 Large-sized PC (e.g. Enlarged), DC 18 for a Str 19 Medium-sized PC, and DC (18 + (19 - Strength)) for anyone else. E.g. for a Str 10 PC it would be DC 27, nigh-impossible, but maybe theoretically achievable under extreme circumstances.

Obviously I didn't compute any physical quantities when coming up with those numbers, I just eyeballed them based on my experience and intuition, but it serves to illustrate how I approach these things.
 
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FitzTheRuke

Legend
I say this with all love and you are, of course, free to do what you like...

You are WAY overthinking it.

There are many ways to play it. Personally, I always just roll, or have players roll, and then narrate the result of the die. No sense in figuring out any numbers before-hand of the die-and-mods wind up a 2 or a 24 anyway. It's only when the roll comes up 13 to 17 (for example) that you even really have to think about how difficult the action might be, and then you take everything into account.

Of course, I'm the kind of guy who likes partial success to be involved too.

Sent from my LG-D852 using EN World mobile app
 

S'mon

Legend
Well you make clear that it's not reasonable for a typical ogre to knock over a tree. :)
With ogre STR 19 being within the human range, I'd just give it advantage on such checks.
Knocking over a tree is likely a DC in the 22-25 range. I generally wouldn't have it attempt things it was unlikely to succeed at. This kind of thing becomes much more plausible for giants, who are much bigger & stronger than any man/PC race. For a giant if rolling I'd likely give advantage and maybe take 5 off the DC too.
 

pemerton

Legend
During the beginning stages of 5e's genesis, the developers (primarily Mike, Trevor, Jeremy and a wee bit of Monte before he ejected) wrote consistently about (a) natural language (to be interpreted in its standard use form, contrast with evolved slang or specialist jargon) and (b) setting/class/environmental components (D&D's "story" as they often put it) being established first with bounded system maths to be carved out after all the "story" was pinned down.

<snip>

In game jargon, this would be the design of an "objective" (but rulings-based) framework. Contrast with systems in which the game's maths chassis has primacy and the fiction is derived genre-wise around those numbers (mutable/ malleable fiction or fluff).
OK.

because D&D is still laden with game jargon, we eschew "natural language" for a moment and provide the gist of what Ability Scores mean. We also learn the normal human average is 10 or 11, but adventurers and many monsters are a cut above. Makes sense. Either the former or the latter are the baseline for our "natural language" DC framework.

Of note, they use the terms "normal human average", "adventurers", and "a person" when speaking to the reader. I think this is just supposed to be "general stuff" because this doesn't help procedurally. From a GM utility perspective and reading this through a "natural language" prism, I gain nothing here when attempting to discern/establish a DC baseline (Easy, Medium Hard for whom?) for play use.
OK - the quest for objective DCs is not done.

Roll the dice only when there are prospects of failure/outcomes are uncertain.
The rules lose me at this point because they don't tell me how I'm meant to judge whether or not something is uncertain. Does this mean "I can think of a way it might fail?" Well, that's true for spellcasting too - the caster might sneeze while uttering the magic words, or be stung by a bee, or whatever - but we don't normally roll dice for that.

Does it mean "I, the GM, haven't decided what the outcome should be"? That's a pretty hardcore rule for a RPG!

Does it mean something else? Dunno. I don't see how it can mean "Has X% chance to fail if attempted by this character", because sometimes I'm meant to set DCs even though a PC might succeed even on a roll of 1 (eg they're already pretty good, then someone casts guidance and a bard gives them inspiration).

"Meaningful consequence of failure." "Meaningful consequence" in a roleplaying game can mean (a) material relevance to the resolution mechanics (immediate or subsequent), (b) story implications, or most often, (c) both.

So we don't just roll dice when a task simply has "a chance of failure" as the PHB outlines. The task (and its chance of failure) (ii) needs to be conflict/stress-laden and (iii) have meaningful consequences (a, b, or c above).
Clarification, or contradiction?

In the above citations (which attempt to facilitate coherent adjudication for when dice-rolling is warranted and attendant DC establishment), the designers use the terms "character", "most people", and "low-level characters". We know these are not interchangeable so deciphering a standardized baseline becomes a wee bit opaque. I guess they're telling us it doesn't matter, use whatever you like (which is odd because one of the tenets of the bounded accuracy chassis was to control number inflation, in part, because story elements get rendered irrelevant due to associated number discrepancies). I think using "most people" or "normal human average" (+0) makes much more sense because the variance of modifiers in a "low level character" is relatively considerable. But, vagaries, house rules, and "make the game your own" was a notorious charm of AD&D, so fair enough.

Finally, there is also the "off message", rather subtle insinuation that story/environmental items aren't, in fact, objectively evaluated. "Becomes reasonable after 10th level or so."
Again - clarification, or contradiction?

If Easy, Medium, Hard, Very Hard, Nearly Impossible are fixed story elements in our setting, centered around "normal human average" (or even "low level characters" if we wish it), what natural language descriptor would we associate with pushing this tree over? Hard? Very Hard? Nearly Impossible?

<snip>

while it seems "in-genre", system-wise, the GM move of "the Ogre slams into a small tree, toppling it over onto you (!)" doesn't appear to be a permissible move.
Pushing over a tree looks impossible to me, if the metric is "ordinary person". If I'm forced to assign a DC, I guess it's Nearly Impossible. And hence impossible for the Ogre (advantage won't help), but barely possible for a high level strong warrior (+11 STR + non-expertise Athletics vs DC 30, assuming no retries - retries make it fairly straightforward for that character, given a bit of time to apply him-/herself to the task).

"The DM calls for an ability check when a character or monster attempts an action (other than an attack) that has a chance of failure." The above example is that of an ability check...which serves as an attack...errr?
Perhaps this is best seen as an infelicity of drafting.

I think the best approach is the following procedure
I think the number of 5e GMs who would adopt your procedure without having some exposure to Dungeon World (or maybe some comparable system) is pretty close to zero. I think it would be very hard to get that just out of the books. Which is not to say that it's bad, but if that's what the designers intended as on possible way of running the game, they could have made their intentions a bit more clear! (The 4e rulebooks sometimes had the same problem.)

EDIT: Also, the fact that a high-level warrior has a better chance of pushing over the tree than the ogre puts pressure on the coherence of the fiction more generally. If the 17th level gnome fighter is better able to push over trees than the ogre, what does that tell us about that gnome, and his/her prodigious power that is utterly belied by his/her smallness? D&D has always had issues with this sort of thing, at least on the margins (qv Gygax's discussion of the hit points of a high level fighter compared to a warhorse), but in AD&D even most high level warriors were probably not as strong as an ogre (18/00), and if they were it was because they'd used a wish or a magic tome or something else that made them, quite explicitly, enchanted beings. (Like the weirdly powered knights in Arthurian legend.) Whereas the 5e gnome can get there by dint of nothing but levelling in a non-magical class.

4e tried to tackle this through the idea of epic tier. I can't say I've got a good handle on how 5e makes sense of it.
 
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Well you make clear that it's not reasonable for a typical ogre to knock over a tree. :)
With ogre STR 19 being within the human range, I'd just give it advantage on such checks.
Knocking over a tree is likely a DC in the 22-25 range. I generally wouldn't have it attempt things it was unlikely to succeed at. This kind of thing becomes much more plausible for giants, who are much bigger & stronger than any man/PC race. For a giant if rolling I'd likely give advantage and maybe take 5 off the DC too.

If I wanted giants to do these kinds of things, my first agenda item would be to rewrite the carrying capacity rules to be exponential in Strength and quadratic in size, instead of linear in both. Then giants could knock over (certain) trees deterministically, not merely stochastically. I.e. I'd have a good idea of what kind of trees don't even require an ability check, for giants.

==================================

Responding to something [MENTION=42582]pemerton[/MENTION] wrote:

Does it mean something else? Dunno. I don't see how it can mean "Has X% chance to fail if attempted by this character", because sometimes I'm meant to set DCs even though a PC might succeed even on a roll of 1 (eg they're already pretty good, then someone casts guidance and a bard gives them inspiration).

FWIW, I have no auto-success in my game. I just have extremely low-probability failures. From my house rules document:

HouseRules.txt said:
1.) Open-ended d20 rolls. Since skill checks and saves, unlike attack rolls, don't auto-succeed on a 20 or auto-fail on a 1, but I always want there to be some chance of failure, on a 20 you re-roll at +10 and take the highest roll. Roll again at +20 if you roll another 20, etc. If you roll a 1, re-roll at -10 and take the lowest. If it's obvious that you've already failed or succeeded you can of course stop rolling already.

So when I resolve an outcome without a die roll, it is similar in spirit to how I sometimes resolve combats without die rolls ("You kill the goblin"). It's not because failure is mechanically impossible for the PC in that situation--it's just that failure isn't interesting enough/common enough for me to want to spend table time resolving it. But I can always calculate the failure chance if I want to.

A major motivation for this is that I don't want a Shadow Monk with Pass Without Trace up to be literally impossible to spot by an infinite horde of goblins no matter how many there are. I always want there to be some risk of failure, and a way to calculate how many goblins would be needed for that risk of failure to become large enough to worry about in-play.

If I set a DC of 50, that means there's about a 1 in 160,000 of an average person accomplishing the task successfully. I'd probably set a DC of 50 to pass the California State Bar Exam without going through law school--but that's still different from a truly impossible task like "high-jump to the moon", which has no DC.
 
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Well you make clear that it's not reasonable for a typical ogre to knock over a tree. :)
With ogre STR 19 being within the human range, I'd just give it advantage on such checks.
Knocking over a tree is likely a DC in the 22-25 range. I generally wouldn't have it attempt things it was unlikely to succeed at. This kind of thing becomes much more plausible for giants, who are much bigger & stronger than any man/PC race. For a giant if rolling I'd likely give advantage and maybe take 5 off the DC too.

Pushing over a tree looks impossible to me, if the metric is "ordinary person". If I'm forced to assign a DC, I guess it's Nearly Impossible. And hence impossible for the Ogre (advantage won't help), but barely possible for a high level strong warrior (+11 STR + non-expertise Athletics vs DC 30, assuming no retries - retries make it fairly straightforward for that character, given a bit of time to apply him-/herself to the task).

Unfortunately, I think the system's resolution mechanics say that is pretty much what we're faced with here!

Unfortunately...er, we're pretty much still in the same boat with a Hill Giant. Strength is only 21 and, again, no Athletics. So we're faced with a +5 Strength check. Even if we say the DC is only 25 (rather than 30) and we give Advantage for size on the check, the odds are still less than 1 in 10 (and their push/pull/lift is still insufficient to the task...not a big fan of that formula existing to be honest...these things are all such a weird synthesis of hefty abstraction and granular process sim)!

Meanwhile an 18/00 Ogre would be able to trivially accomplish it in AD&D (even if you put a small penalty, given the 00, for rolling under). While the 3.x straight up Ogre isn't exceptional, the one beside it (the Ogre Barbarian should be the stock Ogre) with 26 Strength, size Large, and +4 from Rage when called upon. Then you have 4e with all manner of Ogres and the use of genre logic for permissible moves in the game. The Ogre Savage from MM1 and the Ogre Juggernaut from Monster Vault will have +14/+17 Athletics which is plenty reliable to hit the end of Heroic-tier Hard DC (automatically passing the Medium for the Juggernaut). The 13th Age Ogre Berserker applies pretty much same as 4e. Cortex+ Heroic Fantasy's Ogre has all the means to wreak havoc on the world through berserk feats of Strength and the quintessential Distinctions/Power Sets (et al). Finally, the Dungeon World Ogre is begging you to wreck the environment. They actually do more damage than a Hill Giant and two of their Qualities are Destroy something and Fly into a rage ! As a GM, if you're doing your job (portray a fantastic world, think dangerous, embrace the fantastic, fill the characters' lives with adventure, give every monster life), then you're going to be running through walls, smashing over trees, and hurling PCs at each other!

[MENTION=42582]pemerton[/MENTION] , I'll address the rest of your post this evening (while I definitely don't think the designers intimated the stunt system I put forth, it definitely seems to me that some folks want to run 5e like a somewhat loosey goosey, poor man's Dungeon World without observing any of the tight GMing procedures, guidance, and strictures of Dungeon World!). [MENTION=6787650]Hemlock[/MENTION] , I'll clarify and respond to your post this evening as well. Pemerton's response was precisely what I was laying out so that might be an assist.
 

pemerton

Legend
FWIW, I have no auto-success in my game. I just have extremely low-probability failures. From my house rules document:



So when I resolve an outcome without a die roll, it is similar in spirit to how I sometimes resolve combats without die rolls ("You kill the goblin"). It's not because failure is mechanically impossible for the PC in that situation--it's just that failure isn't interesting enough/common enough for me to want to spend table time resolving it. But I can always calculate the failure chance if I want to.
A random factoid in response to a FWIW:

In Burning Wheel there is always a chance of failure, because resolution is dice pool (the dice are d6s, and the default is that 4+ is a success, and higher numbers give you more dice in your pool; but no matter how many dice you roll, even if you need only one success there's always a chance you'll get none).

And BW also uses "say yes or roll the dice" - so the dice only get rolled if something significant (in "story"/theme terms) is at stake and failure matters. Otherwise it just happens.

It's a different flavour from the 4e I run, which does have auto success outside of combat. Also, BW doesn't allow for "yes, but" - as in the GM can't just say "You succeed, but it will cost you X hp." Which is something I do quite a bit in 4e. In BW, if it's not "yes" than it's SET A DC AND ROLL THOSE DICE!

(Shifting back out of all-caps: PC advancement is intimately connected to making checks - so players are entitled to roll the dice if something meaningful might be at stake.)
 

You're making this harder than it needs to be. We have more than enough information, just from what is given, to successfully resolve this example.

1) Pushing over a tree would be somewhere between Very Hard and Nearly Impossible for an average person, therefore the DC is in the 25-30 range. (DM discretion applies here.)
2) The ogre has leverage or something, due to being so huge. Circumstantial modifiers in this edition grant Advantage.
3) The ogre has +4 on the check, from Strength.

A) It is impossible to reach DC 25 with only +4 on the check, with or without Advantage. The outcome is certain, and no roll is required.
 

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