How big's the RPG market?

Maelish · Jul 7, 2017

Individual miniatures or miniatures games?

Morrus said:
Pretty tiny, is the answer. As of 2016/2017 it's about $35m in size, according to ICv2. That's of a Hobby Games market currently worth just over a billion dollars.

The RPG segment is 2.9% of the overall Hobby Games market, which includes boardgames, miniatures, hobby card games, and collectible games.

@Morrus,

In regards to Miniatures, does this refer to individual miniature sales from manufacturers or miniatures games?

Morrus · Jul 7, 2017

Maelish said:
@Morrus,

In regards to Miniatures, does this refer to individual miniature sales from manufacturers or miniatures games?

ICv2 says it's "non-collectible miniatures lines (hobby channel)."

The top 5 in Fall 2016 (the latest stats) were:

Star Wars X-Wing
Warhammer 40K
Warmachine
Warhammer Age of Sigmar
Hordes

Maelish · Jul 7, 2017

[MENTION=1]Morrus[/MENTION],

Thanks, that explains quite a bit.

Tony Vargas · Jul 7, 2017

Hussar said:
Perhaps the bigger takeaway here is just how much TTRPG's have grown since the release of 5e. There were ballpark estimates of the TTRPG market being about 30 million in the 3e years,

I heard they were guestimating around 20 million c2007 - maybe 25+ million as potential growth. As contrasted to the 50-100 million of a Hasbro 'Core Brand' at the time.

in the 4e years, particularly when WotC stopped producing new books (one number I heard tossed around was about 15 million).

Yep.

If that's true...

Doubled since the end of the 3e era seems a pretty safe claim. That's equivalent to 6% annual growth. Only the heath care industry would turn up it's nose at that kind of growth.

Morrus said:
We’re not discussing global sales of games and puzzles. We’re discussing the North American hobby game market. Entirely different thing.

It is an interesting perspective, though. As tiny as RPGs are compared to the giants of the 'hobby game' market, that whole market, itself, isn't exactly a major segment of the global market for games in general...

Hussar said:
Yeah, I imagine that you can massage the numbers a number of different ways depending on what you include and exclude. I mean, puzzles, I imagine, are a pretty big thing world wide. I know I certainly see them everywhere.

'Gaming' in the sense of gambling (and it is often used in that sense outside of TT & video gaming circles) is obviously enormous, for instance.

Mercurius said:
Interesting data. To me this is an awful hybrid of Idiocracy and Sturgeon's Law writ large: People prefer easy, instant gratification entertainment. Going to the movies or playing a video game (or most video games) requires little to no imagination and creativity.

We're not fringe, we're Elite?

ChampionoftheTriad · Jul 7, 2017

So, I suppose we should all thank our lucky stars that we have nice printed books at all. The good news, is that the entire industry could dry up and blow away tomorrow, and we'd all have enough gaming materials to play for multiple lifetimes. B-)

Mercurius · Jul 8, 2017

Hussar said:
I'm not sure I'd blame people too much for that though. Running a game is not easy and it's a HUGE time sink. I can totally understand why someone isn't interested in it. Never minding that trying to organize a group on a regular basis can be a big nightmare as well.

There's a bunch of pretty big hurdles that you need to jump in order to have a good gaming group that routinely produces fun sessions. Really, it's no different than restaurants. Sure, there's all sorts of fantastic restaurants serving wonderful food out there, but, y'know what? McDonalds fits the bill. Never minding that going to a restaurant is essentially just consuming other people's work. It's not like i have to do any work to sit down in a restaurant. But, do I prefer easy, instant gratification just because I haven't learned how to be a sushi chef? Not really. I'm just not interested in learning how to be a sushi chef.

It's easy to pooh pooh going to the movies or playing a video game, but, let's be honest here, both are pretty fun things to do. People aren't wrong for preferring them.

I'm not blaming anyone for anything, and I love going to the movies (although not a big fan of video games). I'm not even saying people are "wrong" for preferring them, but on the other hand I do think some activities are generally more creative, imagination, life-affirming, etc.

Tony Vargas said:
We're not fringe, we're Elite?

Well, sometimes the two overlap. But I wouldn't say tabletop RPGs are "elite" as much as they are a highly creative activity that requires a large amount of effort and use of imagination.

Henry · Jul 8, 2017

Mercurius said:
Well, sometimes the two overlap. But I wouldn't say tabletop RPGs are "elite" as much as they are a highly creative activity that requires a large amount of effort and use of imagination.

The irony is that the RPG and Comic Book markets are the markets that drive the creative fuel of the film and computer game markets, yet see the least return; but then, that's all of life. By its nature, you buy a handful of stuff, and then get tons of return value on comparatively small purchases, but with computer games, movies, collectible games, you're ALWAYS needing to buy more. A computer game that you get 80 hours of entertainment out of is considered a "huge" game, with most games being more like 40 or 50 hours; We get hundreds of hours out of the 5e or Pathfinder core sets alone, for about the same costs.

Some computer games break this mold, like Fallout 4, Skyrim, etc. but those are uncommon in the industry, likely due to the time and expense involved in production. Playing devil's advocate a moment, what production house wants to spend 5 years making a massive game that costs the same to buy as a game you can turn out in one or two years, for a tenth of the QA and production costs and sell for the same price and sell more units of, and the market just turns around and says, "more, please?" Massive CRPGs still make money, it's why we still get them, but the model is not as friendly to the bottom line, and I would guess for similar reasons of time and expense.

Jay Verkuilen · Jul 8, 2017

ChapolimX said:
So we can say, backed by statistics, we are the coolest kids in town?
Plus, since the mainstream market of video games draw a lot of inspiration from tabletop RPG, we can say we are trendy too?

So... the hipster defense?

Jay Verkuilen · Jul 8, 2017

Hussar said:
I'm not sure I'd blame people too much for that though. Running a game is not easy and it's a HUGE time sink. I can totally understand why someone isn't interested in it. Never minding that trying to organize a group on a regular basis can be a big nightmare as well.

Yes, having come off running a game for a while where the "herding cats" problem got way out of hand, I have to say I'm burned out from it. All too often scheduling falls to the DM, too, which is one of the most thankless and awful tasks around.

It's easy to pooh pooh going to the movies or playing a video game, but, let's be honest here, both are pretty fun things to do. People aren't wrong for preferring them.

Yeah, and you can understand why games that don't involve any kind of DM labor, most notably coop video games, are often popular. I don't like them myself because most of them are essentially "shoot and loot" type games without any story, but for people who were playing mostly "shoot and loot" type tabletop why bother with the complexity of a tabletop game?

Jay Verkuilen · Jul 8, 2017

Paul3 said:
Collectible games more or less require constant purchases. They aren't marketing any better. It is just the nature of the game. Compared to board games, RPGs are in an interesting position in that I can sit down and play a game of Dominion in 45 minutes, which works for many lifestyles. RPGs, by their nature, require what....3-4 hour sessions, which is great for those that are into them, but bad for pulling in the casual player. In other words, what makes them awesome fun is also what limits their audience. You are simply appealing to a smaller group of potential customers, but with arguably a much greater intensity.

Collectibles also have the substantial benefit of supporting pickup play way more easily than RPGs. The rules are usually written on the card or are pretty short once you know them. Getting into M:tG is pretty easy with a pre-constructed deck. Players who don't know each other can sit down and play together in a way that's more challenging with a TTRPG. Hobby board games are kind of intermediate in the sense that many have more complicated rules and players can't easily bring their own gear. The fact that collectibles involve lots of repeat purchases is a big plus for publishers, too.