How big's the RPG market?

How big is the RPG market? Pretty damn tiny, is the answer. As of 2016/2017 it's about $35m in size, according to ICv2. That's of a Hobby Games market currently worth just over a billion dollars. The RPG segment is a mere 2.9% of the overall Hobby Games market, which includes boardgames, miniatures, hobby card games, and collectible games. Of course, the competition for RPGs isn't just boardgames or card games, it's entertainment; and on that scale, the RPG market is a tiny niche of the Hobby Games market, which is a tiny niche of the global entertainment market. Note that these figures are US and Canada only, and include Kickstarter sales.

UPDATE: the below $1.19B figure has since been revised upwards by ICv2 to $1.4B in 2017, with an RPG segment of $45M.

The hobby games market as a whole is the size of one major movie blockbuster. The global film industry market was 38.3 billion in 2015. Putting that into perspective:

The video game industry is even bigger, at $91B in 2016.

However, the entire hobby games market is growing year on year. Just look at the latest stats: the market has grown from $700M in 2013 to $1.19B in 2016/2017. Of that, RPGs have more than doubled in size, from $15M to $35M. Boardgames have over tripled in size. There is definitely a tabletop boom going on right now, powered by a number of factors ranging from Kickstarter, to the introduction of US West Coast media (shows like Tabletop and outlets like Geek & Sundry have helped to mainstream tabletop gaming), and more.

Data from ICv2 and other sources.

SaveSave
SaveSave
[FONT=&quot]Save[/FONT][FONT=&quot]Save[/FONT]​

 

[HawaiiSteveO]

very interesting, always curious about this. More than I would have guessed - even if broad strokes and not down the exact $.

 

[doctorbadwolf]

Book prices have also kept jumping up as well, that's a factor too. Maybe units purchased vs dollar amount? Probably not as easy to measure?

I also wonder how much retailers are counting secondary stuff as part of the rpg sales portion of the pie.

 

[Tony Vargas]

Pretty tiny, is the answer. As of 2016/2017 it's about $35m in size, according to ICv2.

That's like double the guestimated size Dancey quoted c2007, though. Something like a 6% growth rate. Not too shabby, in perspective.

Of course, still tiny in the broader context.

One thing that HAS been proven out based on information collected from a lot of publishers is that there are diminishing returns on supplements and sourcebooks compared to core books or core sets. Much of that can be intuited from the target audience, too - books that are only useful to GMs (like adventures, etc) aren't going to be bought by all of the players. White Wolf struck a huge chord with gamers because their splat books were useable by everyone. That's why that model has stuck around for so long.

Interesting that 5e is being so successful bucking that trend...

...and that PF is continuing to be successful riding it.

(yeah, just 'interesting' I have no conclusion whatsoever)

As someone who has done just that, with 12 year olds no less, I couldn't disagree more. It is this accessibility (relative to PF or 4e) that has brought many back to the game. There is more depth if you want to get into it, but you can grab the basic rules with a rudimentary understanding of RPGs, and be off to the races.

The key word in there, is 'back.' 5e is very accessible to returning D&Ders from the TSR era, and to continuing fans, of course.

I've run many intro games over the decades, including with quite young players. D&D has never been that easy for anyone to pick up, it is a complex, 'heavy' game, and 5e is no exception. The closest thing to an exception was 4e, which was surprisingly easy for new players to pick up - and surprising difficult for returning ones. 5e at least fixed that issue.
The really decisive factor, IMHO, in getting new players into the game, is having experienced DMs running great games for them (and an experience player or few in the group doesn't hurt, either). And, accessibility to long-time & returning players should be helping with that - it certainly looks that way at my FLGS, where I'm not the oldest guy in the shop as often anymore...

I also wonder how much retailers are counting secondary stuff as part of the rpg sales portion of the pie.

Like, minis, dice &c? I'm sure it must be counted, it'd be silly not to...

 

[doctorbadwolf]

As I'm sure you're aware, people are pretty silly. Even smart, reasonable, people.

And like, heroclix and the like, IME, are counted by retailers as board game or some other category, even though a large portion of purchasers use them as ttrpg minis. Same deal with war game stuff. Most ppl I know who buy terrain don't play war games at all.

 

[Morrus]

What does that mean, exactly?

It means that outfits like Geek & Sundry and shows like Tabletop have helped grow the industry.

Do you always speak so elliptically in an article intended to be informative?

You charmer, you. I wuvs you!

 

[Tony Vargas]

And like, heroclix and the like, IME, are counted by retailers as board game or some other category, even though a large portion of purchasers use them as ttrpg minis. Same deal with war game stuff. Most ppl I know who buy terrain don't play war games at all.

I've seen the odd heroclix mini at a table (the base is inconvenient), there's some crossover, I'm sure. OTOH, serious minis, like Warhammer stuff, yeah, an RPGer might buy one now and then, but the Warhammer players buy tons. Literally 2000lbs at a time wouldn't surprise me....

 

[werecorpse]

It's tiny because RPGs are work and take lots of free time. Especially heavy systems like PF. 5E is still too heavy for most people who are not already D&D fans. FFG Star Wars is not as heavy as it looks, but the core products are intimidating. Luckily it has the marketing power of Star Wars.

The last thing most people (who are not really gamers) think of when they want to have a fun game to pick up and play whenever time allows, is shelling out $70 to $150 dollars on 300 plus page rulebooks. We don't bat an eyelash. But we are not those people anymore. If I had to pick up a 325 page players handbook to play in 1977, I would never have started. I'm sure there was less word count in ALL the LBBs and Holmes, and probably Moldvay too.

And having a $20 box game that is pretty easy to pick up is great, but then hitting them with the aforementioned encyclopedias of rules and/or adventure books just to continue on is an instant turn-off. Just pick up your phone or turn on your xbox and play whatever, or grab a board game with high replay value and get right to the fun. No volumes of rules, no needing to coordinate 5 people's schedules and find a place to play, no need to pick up an additional $50 adventure path because you don't have time to make things up/do math homework assignments.

During the NEXT playtest, Mearls said something to the effect of- D&D was no longer easy to just pick up on the spur of the moment and play a game whenever, and they want to change that. They have not done that. The game is still heavy, and their product model is focused on big adventure books that are not for new or casual DMs or people who just want to play a quick 2 hour game of D&D and feel like they accomplished something.

Until all that changes, and the rpg business models of the last 35 years changes, fans and the RPG industry will need to be happy with the small profits and teeny weeny niche of even the best selling games.

Interesting perspective but in the main RPGs aren't quick 2 hour games. They don't scratch that itch and shouldn't try IMO.

Shortly after I was introduced to the game in 79 I got the AD&D Set of three books. The basic set was a taste but it didn't satisfy me. They were at least as dense and arcane as the current 5e books. In my high school about 3-4% of the kids played and maybe half that played regularly. Less kept playing after high school. I know it's anecdotal but I doubt that's changed. For many it's not their thing.

For me, while board games are kinda fun and I'll play them to be social, saying play a quick high replay value boardgame instead of an rpg is like saying I should read a magazine rather than a good novel. I mean it may be easier but it's not the same thing. Just because reality TV is enourmously popular doesn't mean all TV should be like reality TV etc (please no!).

i don't agree that it's because other stuff is easy to learn/play etc. I tried playing some of those Xbox or play station games with my kids but I can't master the controls to the level needed to join them. I just get killed in COD. My kids spend hours playing various computer games and frequently are playing online games. I agree that once mastered the electronic games are easier to play a quick half hour game at the convenience of the consumer, but the players of these games are quite prepared to spend hours learning their craft, and they aren't cheap.

RPGs take time to play, novels take time to read, television series take time to watch but that's ok. Maybe one will eventually be able to join a pick up online game for a quick hour of roleplaying like my kids play overwatch or dota 2 but I doubt it.

 

[Adam Jury]

Unless something has changed none of ICv2's numbers include Kickstarter, so factor that into any opinions based on their information.

 

[Morrus]

Unless something has changed none of ICv2's numbers include Kickstarter, so factor that into any opinions based on their information.

It includes Kickstarter.

"The biggest change in our methodology this year was to add Kickstarter sales (adjusted to eliminate sales outside the U.S. and Canada) to our estimates of total market size, and as the numbers were significant for 2014 as well, we revised our 2014 estimates in two categories: we now estimate that hobby board games in 2014 were around $160 million (adding $35 million for Kickstarter sales), and that card and dice games were around $60 million (adding $5 million for Kickstarter sales)."

https://icv2.com/articles/news/view/35150/hobby-games-market-nearly-1-2-billion

 

[Adam Jury]

Ah. At this link <http://www.enworld.org/forum/content.php?1984-Top-5-RPGs-Compiled-Charts-2008-Present#.WV7G_NMrLK1> there are two bullet points about Kickstarter that aren't next to each other so it's easy to miss the second one after skimming the first.