Based on above post I figured I would try to factor in the effect of minions dying and see how it compared to a slug fest with an equivalent opponent. After doing some quick napkin math I'm not so sure that 4 minions are a greater threat than 1 skirmisher/soldier. I have no experience formating in a post so try and follow along and by all means correct me if my math and or logic is faulty.
I will start with a few conditions based on info from KotS and explain differences (marked with an asterisk) below.
4 Kobold minions: AC 17*, attack +5 vs. AC (4 damage), XP 25
1 Kobold soldier/skirmisher: HP 27, AC 17*, attack +6 vs. AC (1d8+2 damage*), XP 100
1 Dwarven Fighter: HP 31, AC 17, attack +6 vs. AC (2d6+5 damage*), Cleave At-will attack
All attacks will occur simultaneously.
I will work with averages as much as possible, though this is where I am most concerned with my logic.
I changed the ACs of both the minions and soldier so the fighter would hit 50% of the time. They are listed in KOTS as both having AC 15. While I am aware that this will skew the results, I don't believe it will be that much to show the effect.
I added +2 to damage for the soldier to equal the damage from a goblin soldier (or gave extra +4 to strength).
I changed the fighter's Power Attack feat to Dwarven Weapon training (+2 to damage).
First Scenario-Minions
----------- Fighter HP --- Damage Potential of 4 minions
-------------------------- (45% to hit vs. AC 17, 4 damage)
Round 1 -- 31 ----------- 1.8 - 1.8 - 1.8 - 1.8 = 7.2
Round 2 -- 23.8 --------- 0.9 - 0.9 - 1.8 - 1.8 = 5.4
Round 3 -- 18.4 --------- 0.0 - 0.0 - 1.8 - 1.8 = 3.6
Round 4 -- 14.8 --------- 0.0 - 0.0 - 0.9 - 0.9 = 1.8
Round 5 -- 13.0 --------- 0.0 - 0.0 - 0.0 - 0.0 = All Dead
Some Notes: With Cleave and a 50% hit rate, after 2 rounds two minions should be dead so I figured that by round 3 there would only be two but they would do half damage in the second round because there would be a 50% chance that they were still around.
Second Scenario-Skirmisher/Soldier
----------- Fighter HP ----------- Soldier HP
----------- Avg Damage = 12 --- Average Damage = 6.5
Round 1 -- 31 ------------------ 27
Round 2 -- 27.75 --------------- 21
Round 3 -- 24.5 ---------------- 15
Round 4 -- 21.25 --------------- 9
Round 5 -- 18 ------------------ 3
Round 6 -- 14.75 -------------- -3
If we figure the second scenario with the fighter against a skirmisher that only does 1d8 points of damage, he will survive with 19.75 HP.
It the first scenario the fighter could win in two rounds taking an average of 10.8 damage to put his HP at 20.2.
Conclusions
1: The fighter will take on average one round longer to klll the soldier vs the minions. That one round is could be crucial depending on what ever else is going on in the battle.
2: The fighter will be more prone to suffering critical hits from the soldier, but if he scores a critical, it will matter.
3: If the minions are granted extra hit points, they will last almost twice as long. I think the second line of potential damage would read 0.9 1.35 1.8 1.8 because you would have 50% chance to hit the first opponent, but would have to hit another opponent to kill the second with your cleave.
I hope this doesn't make me look like a tard
