So...How are Sales of 4E Product?

[Mustrum_Ridcully]

I'm starting to get the impression that "sales of 4e products" is being equated with the corebooks and first module by alot of people...We know the corebooks sold well initially, and we even know amongst complaints of poor quality the special sneak peek module H1 sold well initially...but what about all the stuff that has been released that seems to be brushed over by 4e proponents, let's see...

1. FRCG
2. FRPG
3. H2 Thunderspire Labyrinth
4. Adventurers Vault
5. Character Record Sheets
6. Dungeon Masters Screen
7. FR1 Scepter Tower of Spellgard
8. H3 Pyramid of Shadows
9. P1 King of the Trollhaunt Warrens


I might have missed some stuff, but I haven't heard anything about any of these books going into new prints, or selling all that great. I could be wrong, but some of them are ranked pretty low on Amazon...even in comparison to other companies gaming products.

Hmm. That's more interesting. But I really have no idea how these types of books sold for 3E. Maybe someone else will find out. I could see that adventures have a few more problems, since they are getting higher level. Our group is just starting H2, and I already have P1, for example. Do they come out too fast? Don't people like the adventures or the system? This is stuff that would be interesting and insightful to figure out.

I think something that will be interesting to watch is how the DDI affects sales of books. Most hardcore gamers, who like 4e, will probably sign up for the DDI...however they have less incentive to buy the books once they do, since they have the compendium. On the other hand casual gamers and those who may not be as enraptured with 4e will be very discerning about what they buy...Thus they're reduced or even non-existent purchases and the (possibly) reduced purchases of the hardcore gamers may lead to a situation where the cost of publishing books and maintaining the DDI is not made up from the sales of either product and one will have to be dropped in order to cut costs.

I know I don't like 4e enough to subscribe to DDI at this point...yet WotC isn't really releasing anything that feels like a gotta have, for me, in the book department. I am starting to get the feeling that material is being held back for DDI (Dragon specifically) that could have been included in the already sparse books WotC is releasing, and it makes me reluctant to invest in this edition.

The most interesting question would be: How does DDI sell in the first place? Is it below or above expectations? Or just right in? Or are the expectations totally worthless since they had originally believed they would have the full package (Character Builder, Visualizer, Game Table) ready by now?

 

[Mustrum_Ridcully]

I don't really have anything to contribute, but want to be part of this thread.

Here's a d6 that rolled low:

Bad d6! Don't disappoint your owner! This is how its done: or at least or

 

[Jack99]

Most of that stuff didn't even exist in the 1E/2E era. Can I get a link documenting the "highest placement of a RPG book on the NYT best-seller list?" And are you also qualifying that to just the 3E/4E era?

Sorry, I can't find it. New computer, and many of my old links were lost in a unfortunate transition involving my daughter, my laptop and a hammer.

I have been looking for it for hours. I am not going to waste any more time on it. Maybe someone else can confirm or not.

Either way, I still think there has been presented ample proof of the other records. If it is still not enough, I guess we will just have to agree that we do not see the world the same way.

Cheers

 

[Delta]

Sorry, I can't find it. New computer, and many of my old links were lost in a unfortunate transition involving my daughter, my laptop and a hammer.

I have been looking for it for hours. I am not going to waste any more time on it. Maybe someone else can confirm or not.

Wow, surprise, suprise. Every time I ask for validation on this stuff it comes up empty. I remain very skeptical.

 

[Imaro]

Hmm. That's more interesting. But I really have no idea how these types of books sold for 3E. Maybe someone else will find out. I could see that adventures have a few more problems, since they are getting higher level. Our group is just starting H2, and I already have P1, for example. Do they come out too fast? Don't people like the adventures or the system? This is stuff that would be interesting and insightful to figure out.

You're probably right in that there is no way to know how the supplementary stuff stacks up...but I also think it's kinda one sided to only look at the corebooks when talking how well 4e is selling. To add something else...I think again, the DDI will have a big impact on adventures since Dungeon is part of the offering. What I don't want to see happen is that WotC suddenly has "justification" for reducing or even stopping production of the books since suddenly (surprise, surprise) print products aren't selling well anymore and a subscription model "really makes since business wise"....You know like the magazines

The most interesting question would be: How does DDI sell in the first place? Is it below or above expectations? Or just right in? Or are the expectations totally worthless since they had originally believed they would have the full package (Character Builder, Visualizer, Game Table) ready by now?

I think one major thing that's not even being considered, but should be in an overall way with WotC...is how much in the hole did Gleemax put them. I mean we all know it cost them money...and we all know it flopped. I think the fact that DDI was pushed into a sub format without the promised offerings might hint at the fact that 4e' blazing success may not have been enough to off set gleemax.

The above along with their very sparse publishing schedule, as far as rule books go (since 3e proved these are your money makers), creates a picture in my mind of exactly what so many claimed was not going to happen with D&D 4e...the subscription based material and resources is being pushed and promoted over the print material. While "optional" in the literal sense, DDI and it's components are becoming the center of D&D. It's this fact that makes me not want to support DDI, that's not the road I want to see the hobby take (especially when everything is fully functional and they increase the price). DDI was marketed as something to supplement the D&D game proper...but now, I feel, it's becoming the main product for D&D and, if this is actually what WotC has planned, I'm not happy with the direction at all.

 

[Shemeska]

I think one major thing that's not even being considered, but should be in an overall way with WotC...is how much in the hole did Gleemax put them. I mean we all know it cost them money...and we all know it flopped. I think the fact that DDI was pushed into a sub format without the promised offerings might hint at the fact that 4e' blazing success may not have been enough to off set gleemax.

It was a major project with a year's worth of funding and after a year they had essentially nothing to show for it. The current DDI strikes me as a rushed product frantically coded at the last minute in order to put something -anything- up to say that at the end of the year, they were starting to get revenue from the investment. It was probably that or risk having the entire thing canned down the line, and the magazines and compendium were the absolute lowest hanging fruit of what was by that point supposed to be fully functional and available for the public.

I wouldn't by any means peg 4e's success (by whatever metric you're measuring that by) to Gleemax's epic failure and the overall DDI's late and lackluster performance to date. 4e sold well at least initially, and it's probably enough to make up for the digital investment since the coding was as best I can guess, done as cheaply as possible (lots of recent grads or low experience on many of the resumes for the Radiant Machine bunch, save for some of the top folks, many of whom aren't there post Gleemax, but my sampling is just public posted stuff so it might be flawed, I can't be sure).

But months after the DDI was supposed to be fully ready, over a year after they started development, we've been told not to expect everything to be ready till late 2009. If things don't fly immediately on the money front for the DDI, I don't think it'll last that long before the plug is pulled or it's scaled back in some manner.

Time will tell.

 

[Wayside]

Sorry, I can't find it.

The issue may be that you're thinking of the Wall Street Journal's list, not the NYT's.

 

[ki11erDM]

Why is it so hard to believe that with the US population growing a minimum of 70 million that a few of them might have picked up D&D? Is that really so ludicrous?

Every single numeric that anyone has come up with shows 4e is selling really well. Why is that so hard to believe? Because the monkeys in your local game store don’t like it? Or a few people are selling ‘used’ books? It’s just laughable. Heck I had played D&D for almost 15 years before I started going to game store.

And as to the silly comments about 1e/2e were you somehow try to prove something with utterly no evidence what so ever… you guys need to go work in politics. At least then I could understand making clams based solely on your own perceptions. And that is not to say that TSR didn’t sell billions of books… just that we have no way to know so you just can’t make the clam.

How in the world has this thread gone for 7-8 pages and spawned at least one other dumbmifying thread? /sigh

 

[CharlesRyan]

But once again someone has danced very carefully around the "record sales" issue, and you took from it what you wanted to hear. We know that both Scott Rouse and Charles Ryan are involved in this thread, they've had a golden opportunity to say for the record, "yes/no/don't know if 4E has outsold 1E to this point in time". And they have, as always, scrupulously avoided that.

So to this time I see the number of official claims that "4E has outsold all prior editions": zero. My personal theory is that 4E has sold a lot of books, less than 1E, and I don't see any evidence to the contrary.

Delta, you are right: As far as I can see, the number of official claims that 4E has outsold all prior editions is zero. I don't recall any unofficial claims that 4E has outsold all prior editions, but if there have been any such claims, I doubt they have any foundation. So we can put that one to rest.

As for any opportunity I have had to compare 4E to 1E, well, there are two problems there. First of all, I hope I've been clear that I don't work at WotC anymore. I may be pretty well informed, but I don't know the numbers on 4E. Second, I've always pointed out that the 1E data is sketchy at best. So rather than "scrupulously avoiding" anything related to 1E, for years I've always clearly gone the "don't know" route in regards to sales comparisons to early editions.

Finally, why is comparison of PHB sales between 1E and 4E even being discussed? The business models are so different over that 30-year span that comparing the sales of a single title, even the PHB, is pretty meaningless.

I think your personal theory is spot on. 4E has sold a lot of books, and in its first four months has probably not outsold an indeterminate span of 1E books.

 

[SlyFlourish]

Finally, why is comparison of PHB sales between 1E and 4E even being discussed? The business models are so different over that 30-year span that comparing the sales of a single title, even the PHB, is pretty meaningless.

The reason it's being discussed is because some people are seeking any argument to poke 4th edition full of holes. I think some are genuinely curious about how their hobby is doing but others are seeking justification for their belief that 1e, 2e, or 3e is /better/. Sales are one possible way of doing that.

Frankly, I think we should all just get back to gaming.