Pramas: Does 4E have staying power?

[Jack99]

The 3.5 Magic Item Compendium made the list, which isn't surprising, given how useful it was. But it charted about 35 spots lower than the Adventurer's Vault.

Ah yeah, I knew there was something I had previously seen there, that I couldn't find again. Thanks.

Online sales really don't matter to the topic. Yes, 4e books are sold online, but so were the same 3.5 books that they are being compared to.

Except that the fact that 4e core gift set made the yearly top 100 list on amazon could indicate that 4e sells more over the net than previous editions. In which case, it would matter.

/shrug

 

[xechnao]

Considering the evidence of 4e selling a lot of books through the web, wouldn't that make this contact's comments fairly irrelevant? Not to mention stupid.

"Oh wait, people actually buy books at this amazon.com place?"

:: for the "source", if that is the case.

No, considering we are speculating and still do not know if online sellers were taken into consideration or not we can not call anyone stupid. Furthermore perhaps Avs Vault and FR guide sold well but the rest have not in such a way that makes that persons claim still valid.
USATODAY list does not prove anything really. It is an indication that these two books sold well and this is perhaps encouraging but there is also the possibility that even if every book sells well Wotc's business plan will fail. It could be that they have a special agreement with Amazon and due to rising printing costs not profitable anymore, it could be the significance of a failure of DDI or whatever else.
I personaly think there is some risk ahead regarding D&D's success and its future the way some fans or even 3pp could have been envisioning it -and this risk is also reflected in Pramas' post to: even if you think his intentions are antagonistic I doubt he would dare to mislead people in a spirit of negativeness of the success of the leading flag product of the market. Chances are that it would hurt him in the long run.

 

[xechnao]

Its possible to like 4E, and hence wonder how its doing and why it doesn't have the buzz or takeup that, being a good game, it should.

Pramas already told you the reason. It is because it is not such a good game in the end:

While brand power is important (and D&D has plenty of it), it's ultimately the play experience of the fans that will tell the story.

And as he said some will make sure there is unrest about statements of this kind.

 

[thecasualoblivion]

No, considering we are speculating and still do not know if online sellers were taken into consideration or not we can not call anyone stupid. Furthermore perhaps Avs Vault and FR guide sold well but the rest have not in such a way that makes that persons claim still valid.
USATODAY list does not prove anything really. It is an indication that these two books sold well and this is perhaps encouraging but there is also the possibility that even if every book sells well Wotc's business plan will fail. It could be that they have a special agreement with Amazon and due to rising printing costs not profitable anymore, it could be the significance of a failure of DDI or whatever else.
I personaly think there is some risk ahead regarding D&D's success and its future the way some fans or even 3pp could have been envisioning it -and this risk is also reflected in Pramas' post to: even if you think his intentions are antagonistic I doubt he would dare to mislead people in a spirit of negativeness of the success of the leading flag product of the market. Chances are that it would hurt him in the long run.

Personally, I don't think Pramas was being antagonistic at all. People in this thread on the other hand...

 

[Mustrum_Ridcully]

I think some posters may be a little confused.

But we don't all have to do that.

Gee, why do you want to make everything complicated. Why can't we just have two groups of people, and it's us vs them?! No wonder some posters are confused if you make it so difficult to know friend from foe!

Except that the fact that 4e core gift set made the yearly top 100 list on amazon could indicate that 4e sells more over the net than previous editions. In which case, it would matter.

Amazon has offered low prices, and it has become really important over the past years. It was just starting around 3.0, but now it is _the_ online market place for ... well, next to everything that you don't buy used, I suppose.
And really, ordering online has become very convenient, too, and there are more people online these days.

But whether this means 4E is selling better, worse or the same... Well, I really don't know. Too much variables have changed.

 

[Darkwolf71]

Except that the fact that 4e core gift set made the yearly top 100 list on amazon could indicate that 4e sells more over the net than previous editions. In which case, it would matter.

/shrug

Pramas' sources were specifically talking about supplements, not the core books.

 

[Vendark]

Pramas' sources were specifically talking about supplements, not the core books.

If more people are buying the core books online than were in the past, it follows that more people may be buying the supplements online as well.

There has to be something that accounts for the fact that Pramas' sources are contradicted by the actual sales charting data that is available to us. A shift toward online sales might explain it.

Of course, Pramas' sources just being flat-out wrong would also account for it.

 

[Ourph]

He mentioned passive agressive people. I would call posting a thread about Chris Pramas saying that distributors and gaming stores reporting a lack of 4E sales with the unspoken intent of posting this as proof that people don't like 4E and that its failing, as well as agreeing with the OP, passive agressive.

Not to mention the title of the thread...

"Are 4e supplements experiencing lower than expected sales?" is different than "Does 4e have staying power?". The latter at the very least insinuates that, if 4e supplements aren't selling as well as expected or as well as 3e supplements, it's because the game itself isn't popular or good.

 

[Campbell]

Online sales really don't matter to the topic. Yes, 4e books are sold online, but so were the same 3.5 books that they are being compared to.

I'm not sure online sales can be so easily dismissed when we're talking about sales figures. That would only be a safe bet if the online sales of 3e and 4e were statistically identical. Although I haven't seen any data that is specific to the RPG industry, online sales have been trending up in respect to their market share of the retail space. Between Q4 2006 and Q4 2007 online sales experienced 17-21% growth. While current projections show a loss of 2% over the same period between Q4 2007 and Q4 2008, it is nothing like the November to November sales drops in same store sales we're seeing from the likes of solid retail performers like Target (10%), Macy's (13%), Nordstrom (16%), and Gap (10%).

Still, it does look like in store sales of 4e supplements are not quite where they should be, and the digital initiative has been a mess.

 

[xechnao]

the actual sales charting data that is available to us

What is that?