While the top 5 is excellent news for Paizo, it confirms the fears I had when 4E was released. Not only splitting the 3.5E crowd right down the middle, but also alienating players altogether from the RPG industry.
Dungeons & Dragons is a strong brand name, the owner needs to really, really mess things up before that seriously changes. IMHO WotC/HASBRO has been seriously messing up since the end days of 3.5E, even before 4E was announced.
When I read the top 5 I also had my doubts (the top 5 didn't surprise me), I looked at the core books on Amazon.com and their position in the sales list. Paizo core books score consistently higher in those charts and imho by a huge margin. So the top 5 might very much be right, Lisa confirming it might be seen as a sales 'trick', but I don't think it is.
In my experience the end of 3.5E resulted in five things:
1.) Folks stopped playing RPGs all together
2.) Folks moved on to other (unrelated) systems
3.) Folks stayed with D&D 3.5E
4.) Folks moved to Pathfinder
4.) Folks moved to D&D 4E
Pathfinder was popular with folks that wanted more compatibility with 3.5E, when it became clear that PF wasn't as compatible as a lot of folks expected, an imho significant part of the potential PF crowd either moved back to 3.5E, took the plunge into 4E, or left altogether. Since then PF has been steadily growing.
D&D 4E on the other hand had a huge influx of players that stayed loyal to the brand name. While the 4E mechanics where far more efficient then 3.5E mechanics (and probably more efficient then the PF mechanics), it eventually became apparent that D&D 4E was lacking something important (imho it's presentation). So more and more folks are dropping out of D&D4E, brand loyalty only goes so far (for me it went two years). A lot are driven to PF because that's the RPG closest to D&D, that isn't D&D 4E, others move to other systems or leave the hobby entirely. And imho it seems that whatever WotC/Hasbro does, it doesn't get enough new blood to replace (or grow) the amount of old blood they loose.
I would say that D&D 4E is spiraling into oblivion, not because PF is so much bigger then D&D, it's because of who owns D&D. What Paizo find acceptable sales numbers/profits and what WotC/HASBRO finds acceptable are wholly different things. So if D&D doesn't hit expected sales/profit numbers (and imho it isn't soon), then Hasbro will cut the whole branch. The current changing of the publication method indicates to me that someone at WotC/HASRO has said "Things need to change and soon!", they did and imho it isn't/won't get them the desired results. 4E tried to attract a new kind of D&D player, it succeeded in that, but at the same time it lost a lot of old D&D players. At face value that isn't a problem, lot's of companies do that and survive perfectly (GW is an excellent example). IMHO the problem is that they lost way more DMs then they gained, and DMs are generally the driving force behind a property, the are generally the folks that buy a lot of product (if not all the product). You might gain a





load of new players, but if there aren't enough DMs, that's a problem.
I make a distinction between Player (pure consumer) and DM (both consumer and content provider) because it is an important and often overlooked part of the business. There is of course overlap, but what I'm aiming at is the MMO model that D&D 4E seemed to follow, and all MMO players are pure consumers. PnP RPGs always had to have a good balance between players and DMs and 4E seemed a lot more aimed at attracting new (MMO) players then attracting DMs. In my particular case I was excited at the mechanical aspect of 4E and had ideas for a campaign, bought everyone from my lapsed 3.5E group 4E PHBs got everyone excited, but 4E just couldn't get me excited at implementing a 4E campaign (mostly because they couldn't get me excited for opening any of their books). I even tried to convert one of Paizo's Adventure paths to 4E (Runelords) but the adventure excited me more then the 4E mechanics, it eventually burned me out on RPGs entirely. I briefly considered moving to PF but buying everyone PF rulebooks was atleast twice as expensive as the PHBs was and at the time didn't fit in my financial situation (and I also lacked a lot of motivation).
I always found PF interesting because they used the OGL and stuck a lot closer to 3.5E then 4E ever did. But that didn't really translate to PF sales, mostly because local distributors don't carry, don't carry a lot, or very sporadic PF products.
In the Netherlands there are two RPG distributors (as far as I know), PS-games and Boosterbox. In the 3.5E days PS-games carried some of the adventure path adventures, mostly due to Paizo also publishing Dungeon and Dragon. PS-games only carried the first 6-7 adventure path adventures, now it doesn't carry any PF products. Boosterbox only carries PF products since about a year or so, only the five core products and it only does so infrequently (supply is very bad). Of those five products only two have been actually available and everything (except the bestiary) is now 'on order'. If I compare that of the availability of 4E books, that is very bad. Retailers tend to be reluctant to order overseas because that tends to be either extra expensive, takes a while or is difficult due to language barriers (while English isn't a problem for a lot of folks, often German or French is).
As Dutch roleplayers we've learned to buy books online and in other countries, Amazon.de or Amazon.co.uk, or even in the US. But generally ordering it the US (directly from Paizo) is way to expensive due to shipping and custom fees. So when something is generally more difficult/expensive to get, it generally gets bought a lot less. I know were only a tiny country with only 17 million souls, with a smaller market for English language RPGs (compared to the US or UK), but we are here and if given the opportunity we would buy. Currently I can only view Paizo as a pure US aimed company and WotC as a globally aimed company. Example: If I order the PF core book from Paizo direct it costs me $94.70 including shipping, that's ~€71, add 6% VAT (on books) and a €12,50 customs fee, that book costs me ~€88. Amazon.de asks €36 including shipping. A subscription might save a few euros on the total price (but it does nothing for shipping) and add a free pdf, it still costs 2.3 times as much to buy from Paizo direct, Paizo might consider an European webstore that ships from an EU country (something like Germany for example).
As another example, I have almost all 3(.5)E and 4E products, compare that to six pre Pathfinder and the two post Pathfinder (non D&D) Paizo products... I'll be stopping with buying 4E books, due to D&D 4E not living up to my expectations and due to diminishing bookshelf space, Paizo still does have a space on the limited bookshelf space ;-)
I would like to point out that WotC also has more diversity in their D&D products, things Paizo doesn't have. Things like software (DDI), miniatures, and boardgames. Paizo is now also (finally) entering the PF novel market. On the other hand Paizo has pdfs, a direct channel for their products and they sell other manufacturers products through their webstore.
Edit:
I am already complaining about the size of the PHB (and the current Red Box isn't what I expected), the PF core book has 80%+ more pages then the 4E PHB, the size of such rulebooks scares off new players. Even more so then price I expect. Something the size and price of an adventure path or player companion books might be a lot more attractive to new players (and I would feel a lot less guilty about hitting players with the book ;-)