Not really- I haven't given any real thought as to what their actual plans are. I just know it's one possibility, just like taking all of their 3.X product and burying it in a landfill.
Consider this: if 4Ed somehow did crash & burn, they'd have to replace it. If they do not defend their rights in 3.X now, their only path would be producing another new version of D&D- IOW, 5Ed. They couldn't base it too much on 3.5 if they wanted because the IP would be compromised (I mean, they could, but it wouldn't make good business sense).
By ensuring that they have properly defended IP, they would at least have the option of re-release and upgrade of 3.5, which they could do much more quickly and with a good idea of it's value in the market.
And personally, I'm not taking any of this personally. While WotC has done some boneheaded things in my view, it's not like they're sending all proceeds of their Deluxe Dolphinskin-bound Core 3 to the KKK and NAMBLA- they simply haven't done anything to prevent me from buying a good RPG product if they put one out.
My take on it is that Danny pretty much has the gist of it right, as far as the legal perspective, from what I've skimmmed. However, he nailed it when he said they ought to license the site so the site can stay in business, they keep the goodwill of fans, and their IP is protected.
Why aren't they doing this? That's the real question. Here's my theory and prediction:
Mearls isn't as stupid as his predecessors from a business sense, he likes older editions, and he is aware of the PR blunders of the past. The only reason to repeat one, even to a lesser degree, would be to have a positive side to it---or at least something WOTC can spin as a positive to the fans, while at the same time making money off of it.
Which leads me to think that there will be a re-release of older material, like as in ALL of it, going back to the OD&D books, in a way that WOTC can make money from it.
The real money-maker for the company now is DDI subscriptions, as opposed to book sales, because everyone knows the books will be outdated due to errata in a matter of months. What better way to get people who want nothing to do with paying a subscription to DDI because they don't play 4e than to release all material for all older versions of the game? How many people would pay 10 or 20 bucks a month for access to everything?
Short of that, they will release everything in pdf format, thus making up for their massive blunder of a couple years ago.
They've blown their load on Essentials, they've scaled back book releases, there is no new revenue stream on the horizon with the current system, nothing that's going to significantly jack up profits using the IP they are currently in bed with. What they are doing now is a preemptive strike to protect their future plans and revenue streams, as much as it is a way to preserve, even if temporarily, the current hegemony (wished for in their own minds) of 4e.
Making older versions available electronically is a win win for everyone, from their perspective.
My only question now is whether they will go after the clones.
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