On WotC's "Surge"

[TerraDave]

I have been meaning to write this for what seems like months…and each time there is some new development that keeps me from posting it. But I figure now is as good as time as any.

Its been obvious for a while now that WotC has felt the need to make a number of changes to its approach with 4E D&D. I have been a little surprised at the number of issues that have come out. In any case lets speculate why:

*Well documented problems with the mini line, in part driven by a lack of play as a stand-alone game, in part by quality and cost problems, and in part by market saturation (remember when people use to buy cases of the things?);

*Initial failures with their originally very ambitious e-offerings only partially made up for by DDI, in large part thanks to rampant piracy (or so they say);

*After years of success going back to 3.5, near saturation of player crunch in hardback compounded by competition with DDI itself (no reason to buy a book for a feat any more) and an everything is core approach that left retailers sitting on a bunch of books;

*Somewhat high levels of errata and other mechanics issues in part due to the ambitious nature of 4E and its revisions vis-à-vis past editions (i.e. it’s a whole new game, and its taken a while to get the kinks out);

*Disappointing market share/takeup due to general pressures on the industry (WoW, dying hobby stores, kids these days…) a still competitive RPG marketplace (there are actually other games out there) and, crucially, people still playing older D&D editions, and now newer editions of older editions.

If I was going to look for a cross-cutting “theme” it might be, lets say, “ambitious”, I am tempted to say “arrogant”, but lets just stick with ambitious. In 2008 they launched a majorly revised version of the game, unleashed Gleemax, were on the verge of a 3D tabletop. A new strategy for minis. A big agenda, accompanied by a lot of noisy marketing (I still miss that bald guy who made videos), some of quite negative. Maybe too ambitious.

Now the Surge. Again, pretty ambitious. Going back over the last 15 months or so: firings, reshufflings, and more work for key free-lancers, the launch of Encounters, a whole new set of core/entry products, attempts to save--then the end--the minis line, a number of actions to stop piracy and drive people back to the website and DDI including a new tabletop. Paring back on books and launching new kinds of products that don’t overlap with DDI as much.

The other theme: messy. I have already mentioned Gleemax once…but now, this latest surge, very messy. Maybe surges are like that. But it also seems to follow from ambitious. Throwing a lot of stuff out there before its quite ready or the strategy is completely thought through.

Before they where able to pull together, at least for a while. People liked the CB and DDI, takeup on the player books and later DM books seemed pretty good. In many ways 2010 was a very good year for the fans.

But clearly not good enough, hence the Surge. If before is any guide, some part of this will probably fail or are already doing so (lower profit margins on digest sized books?). And what is success? People come into the game with essentials, they and us subscribe to DDI, buy down the existing book stock and the new box sets and cards and maybe we get that 08-essentials “bridge product” at some point. For years to come we have a balance of online offerings and a careful mix of books and boxes and cards.

Could happen.

 

[Mercurius]

When I see the word "surge" I think of an all-out attack, or a flood of new stuff. What I see from WotC is rather different, more of a purge. I mean, remember when I was getting bitched at for remarking on how WotC wasn't really coming out with any new material for six months? Now it is 8/10 (Psionic Power, Dark Sun) to 4/10 (Heroes of Shadow) - that's eight months. And it is few and far between going forward.

I'm awfully tempted to write my own "What I Think Is Going On" thread, but the forums are already over-saturated. But I think it is pretty clear, as some have said, that WotC is moving towards DDI as core (I wrote about this a couple months ago), that with DDI there is no need or market for 2-3 new splat books every month.

The best-case scenario is that this frees up time and space to be more creative, to come out with more setting and theme material, more modular alternate approaches to the game. The worst-case scenario is that WotC focuses almost entirely on the DDI subscription and that paper products die out, with maybe only a once-a-quarter Madness of Gardmore Abbey or Shadowfell type product, and then maybe those dwindle away as well and "D&D" becomes a line of a few evergreen products that don't sell much, a few boardgames, and a new MMO.

What I see happening is the entire RPG market downsizing. This isn't necessarily a bad thing. Pathfinder is overall a higher quality product than 4E in terms of the love and attention that it gets, and is more sustainable to boot. Just as ideally peak oil will inspire technological innovation and a whole slew of public transportation options like high-speed rail. But will it happen? And perhaps more importantly, will we survive the pains of transformation?

D&D will survive, there is no doubt. But it may survive and thrive moreso as Pathfinder than as whatever WotC offers. Only time will tell.

 

[Dausuul]

I hate to say it, but the theme I see is "desperation."

Companies with healthy, thriving product lines don't thrash around like this. When you have a successful product with good sales, you tinker and tweak, you don't make sweeping changes over and over again. D&D is evidently in trouble and WotC is searching for the magic formula that will turn things around. Compare to their other big product line, M:tG. Magic has undergone plenty of tinkering and improvement, but the core product and mode of delivery are much as they were 15 years ago. You can play modern Magic with cards from the first edition.

I've hesitated to jump on the "split base" bandwagon--the plural of anecdote is not data, after all--but I'm starting to come around to the idea that 4E really did split the player base down the middle, and WotC is trying to grapple with that fact. It's not an easy problem to solve. To embrace Pathfinder or go back to 3E would accomplish nothing at this point; they'd just lose even more customers (me, for one). And it's too early for a new edition.

Assuming the product line doesn't tank entirely, I think the next few years will see a lot of experimentation. Then 5E will be released to much fanfare, in a bid to revive the brand much as 3E did. 5E will try to address the key complaints of 3E/Pathfinder players, without reviving the issues that 4E adoptees wanted to leave behind.

 

[TerraDave]

When I see the word "surge" I think of an all-out attack, or a flood of new stuff. What I see from WotC is rather different, more of a purge. I mean, remember when I was getting bitched at for remarking on how WotC wasn't really coming out with any new material for six months? Now it is 8/10 (Psionic Power, Dark Sun) to 4/10 (Heroes of Shadow) - that's eight months. And it is few and far between going forward.

...But I think it is pretty clear, as some have said, that WotC is moving towards DDI as core (I wrote about this a couple months ago), that with DDI there is no need or market for 2-3 new splat books every month.

I remember.

When I was going to do this thread originally, I imagined there would be at least a stream of digest book size products. Clearly the issues ran deeper then any of us realized. Its a surge of activity, but yes also a shift in strategy and apparently an abandonment of what seemed like key territory.

Of course, there is the surge, then the withdrawl...

I hate to say it, but the theme I see is "desperation."

Companies with healthy, thriving product lines don't thrash around like this. When you have a successful product with good sales, you tinker and tweak, you don't make sweeping changes over and over again. D&D is evidently in trouble and WotC is searching for the magic formula that will turn things around. ...I'm starting to come around to the idea that 4E really did split the player base down the middle, and WotC is trying to grapple with that fact. It's not an easy problem to solve. ..Then 5E will be released to much fanfare, in a bid to revive the brand much as 3E did. 5E will try to address the key complaints of 3E/Pathfinder players, without reviving the issues that 4E adoptees wanted to leave behind.

That word also occured to me. On the split...there is a split, a big split. Maybe this is normal, gamers have had divergent taste for a long time, 2E, for example, was always somewhat controversial and sniped at by even its long time supporters. Maybe 3E and the one mechanic to rule them all was the aberation.

Or maybe its worse this time. It seems worse. As for 5E...clearing the decks, kinda like now, does usually proceed a new edition, but I still can't imagine it for a while.

 

[AbdulAlhazred]

Desperation or just being proactive? The thing is NO RPG is ever just 'thriving'. For all its successes TSR destructed itself with great thoroughness. What you did last quarter is history, what you'll do next quarter is a hope, what you do THIS quarter pays your bills. You could sell 500 great products one year and if you don't have another lineup for this year, and designed to meet this years customer's needs, it means squat. What you find is that there's always a scrambling, always a struggle. You can never rest on your accomplishments, and you can never assume that doing more of the same thing will produce the same results it did before.

It seems likely from what we see that there are concerns. The RPG market is changing and evolving quickly, like everything in modern society. Every quarter is another bold experiment or another retrenchment. I don't think that's likely to change anytime soon. D&D is caught in the very midst of the whole digital revolution. One can say that this or that other company is doing better or worse, but nobody actually has even the faintest idea if that is true or not. 4e could long outlast PF. It could be the other way around. Personally I'd bet with the larger and more heavily resource equipped organization to make it. Paizo has to hope their model continues to work, WotC doesn't have to hope, they can afford to make changes in direction and engage in experiments. They can also survive a lean quarter or two. The smaller company? Not so much.

 

[Pheonix0114]

I just got into the game a little over a year ago, and 4e was the first table top experience I had, and after playing for a while I decided to get a subscription to DDI for the character builder and then also discovered the adventure tools. After a bit our dm quit on us, and after borrowing his books for a short while I've dm-ed from just DDI stuff, which is one of the reasons I think they are probably doing so poorly, DDI offers so much that it is hard to justify buying most of the books they've come out with.

This is the generation of Netflix, Gamefly, Zune Pass/Rapsody. We want subscriptions with constant content, not one time purchases, and that is something that modern business will have to adapt to.

 

[TerraDave]

[MENTION=82106]AbdulAlhazred[/MENTION]: Are things really always shifting, or does the company that makes D&D latch on to one strategy or another and live off it till it dies? Gobs of modules in the 80s, vast amounts of campaing stuff in the 90s, minis and lots of mostly player oriented hard backs in the 00s.

I guess the question is, have the yfound the next big thing, the interwebs, were they have had issues for years? Or will it be something else.

 

[Solvarn]

Turtle

The cancellation of Class Compendium and Mordenkainen's Magnificent Emporium accomplishes two things:

a) This material doesn't need to be entered into the character builder or any other digital initiative (tabletop software)
b) Provides a few months of DDI material that can be introduced in articles on DDI

The Class Compendium articles can be created as Unearthed Arcana material that can be put out there but not officially supported, i.e. not included in the character builder.

The Heroes of Shadow being pushed up allows them more time to add these changes to the software and frees up time for programmers.

The glut in the release schedule creates a schedule bubble, this indicates to me that they are reworking their DDI tabletop and character builder with this newly created time.

The cancellation of the miniatures line tells me that they are moving away from tabletop gaming as a business model.

I think it is more likely that we will see D&D go fully electronic to create a new market with a much more limited publishing offering. Concerns about piracy have caused them to try to create a market that is server dependent to help combat piracy.

Hasbro people understand board games. They also can understand the concept of a game that allows them to sell cards in packs. I can see an executive who has no idea what roleplaying games are saying something like:

"But you guys make all that money off of those cards. Can't you just sell cards for your roleplaying games?"

Apparently they can. One of the tangible benefits is that it is difficult to pirate this material. Board games have bits and pieces in them that you can't squeeze into a scanner. Cards have a low price point and are collectible. I'm sure they are more profitable than miniatures are.

It's a big gamble to gut their release schedule. They have a lot of customers that buy the new book every month and those people won't have much to look forward to for awhile. It'll be interesting to see where those dollars go.

I'm a consumer that enjoys playing roleplaying games at a table with people. We roll dice and kill monsters. Apparently I'm a grognard or my demographic doesn't present enough of a profit to consider catering to my taste in any realistic fashion. That's cool. I will be forced to check out Pathfinder or Dragon Age I guess. To be honest, I've started to get a little tired of D&D anyway. I can just modify the old character builder with new material and that will work too. If the books are literally just not going to be published I can't spend my money on them.

As a consumer of electronic games my expectations are a great deal higher than WotC is currently able to meet. Charging a subscription fee and moving the product into the MMO realm means that all of a sudden there is viable competition, something Wizards of the Coast really hasn't had to deal with. It'll be interesting to see if the subpar character builder 2.0 is an indication of things to come. If so I don't know how well D&D will do. It could be really bad or it might be the best thing ever. Companies with competition are a lot more keen to listen to the people that give them money.

 

[ggroy]

"But you guys make all that money off of those cards. Can't you just sell cards for your roleplaying games?"

Apparently they can. One of the tangible benefits is that it is difficult to pirate this material. Board games have bits and pieces in them that you can't squeeze into a scanner. Cards have a low price point and are collectible. I'm sure they are more profitable than miniatures are.

Hmmm ... The magic items in the (former) "Mordenkainen's Magnificent Emporium" book, being released as magic item cards in randomized booster packs?

 

[Solvarn]

Seriously

Hmmm ... The magic items in the (former) "Mordenkainen's Magnificent Emporium" book, being released as magic item cards in randomized booster packs?

All of the stuff that we said WotC will do to D&D when they acquired TSR has been collected and transformed into a business model. It took ten years but eh they got us in the end didn't they.