4e = the Titanic? and other insanity or irony

[Umbran]

2E and 3E were very well-received by the majority of the D&D community.

Well, we have a few problems when we speak about "the community" retrospectively.

At the time of the release of 2e and 3e (1989 and 2000, respectively), "the community" was not particularly well connected, and information moved slowly through it. I dare say that the majority of the community for those releases didn't have a whole lot of information about the new products at the time of the release.

For the release of 4e (2007) that type of loosely connected community existed, but alongside it ran the internet rpg community. When we talk about the split, the only real evidence we have is for the internet community, and that's basically anecdotal, and not representative of the larger, loosely connected community.

3E was the most robust period in D&D in its history for sales and game growth.

I think you're wrong there - the most robust sales and growth were more likely in the 1980s, with 1e. Since nobody has numbers for the 80s (that data has been lost to history), and only WotC has the numbers for 3e's launch, we shall just have to agree to disagree.

I have been here since EN World's beginning, I can state with certainty that 3E never came close to causing the schism in the D&D world that 4E caused. Didn't even come within sniffing distance.

You aren't the only old-timer around here, so please don't use that as a determiner of authority. I've been around since EN World's beginnings too, as have many others. That doesn't mean our experiences match.

3e didn't cause the vitriol we see on message boards today, no. But then, the message board community as we know it today didn't exist. There is a strong argument that the game itself did not cause the schism we see, but that the online community did it to itself.

In the meantime, I don't think we have any data about how the folks who aren't in the internet community are feeling about the whole thing.

I believe 4E split the market like no other edition ever has. It was vastly different from the old editions of D&D. The biggest change in the past 20 years.

Back in the early 1990s, with the release of White Wolf's "World of Darkness" games, there was also talk of a schism. There was some vitriol between fans of either one, lots of talk that that White Wolf had stolen huge amounts of D&D's market share, discussion that this might mean the death of D&D, and all that.

But, as time went on, it was discovered that there wasn't an actual schism, except between the real hotheads. Most of us didn't choose sides - we played both games, when one or the other suited our moods.

Now, as I've already said, the 4e era is somewhat different - "the community" isn't the same thing. But it just seems to me that history suggests that the rumblings of the worried and discontent are poor indicators of what is actually happening in the wider world of players.

 

[Wiseblood]

Maybe it's for sale. On a side note Blizzard canceled the release
of Warcraft adventures.

What could/would Blizzard do with D&D IP? WoW is really the 800 pound gorilla.
It is aging they are looking for something new. Something already established would be better.

 

[Umbran]

Maybe it's for sale.

Unlikely, for a couple of reasons:

1) I don't think it'd stay secret - too many fans too close to the sale would be willing and able to leak that information.

2) Historically, Hasbro sits on IP, rather than selling it. They are big enough, and think long-term enough, that the short-term revenue they'd get from a sale is not significant compared to long-term potential. And, honestly, keeping valuable IP out of competitor's hands is not a stupid idea.

They might choose to license the property - but #1 still applies.

 

[BryonD]

But it just seems to me that history suggests that the rumblings of the worried and discontent are poor indicators of what is actually happening in the wider world of players.

True, and if we were going on nothing more than the rumblings of the discontent then we would almost certainly be wrong.

 

[Insight]

Maybe it's for sale. On a side note Blizzard canceled the release
of Warcraft adventures.

That was cancelled years ago. It would have nothing to do with current events.

Warcraft Adventures: Lord of the Clans

What could/would Blizzard do with D&D IP? WoW is really the 800 pound gorilla.
It is aging they are looking for something new. Something already established would be better.

Blizzard has already announced that they are in development of a "next-generation" MMO called Titan. I don't know what - if anything - has been announced about this game.

That said, Blizzard would be a good shepherd for the D&D game, but I doubt they would have ANY interest in continuing to support a paper product. That's just not their thing. A Blizzard 5th ed D&D would be entirely or almost entirely electronic. It would be a LOT different than what we have now.

 

[dmccoy1693]

I always wondered what D&D would be like under FFG.

Its called Descent, and it is a fun game.

 

[dmccoy1693]

2) Historically, Hasbro sits on IP, rather than selling it.

This is probably the first thing I agreed with you on the whole thread.

From a publishers' standpoint, it looks like WotC is in flux at best or in trouble at worst. They choose not to renew the Star Wars license, they stopped producing 4E material for a while in favor of a whole new series of intro products for D&D, they stop heroscape, they stopped D&D minis, they're not doing all the "core" products for the previously mentioned intro. You don't cut revenue streams that are healthy. That's alot of revenue streams that got cut.

It is possible that the financial crisis is finally catching up to them, that they're having trouble getting a loan or something. It could be one of a few dozen things that have nothing to do with how well D&D is selling, but still puts them in a state of flux-trouble.

 

[Tarek]

It could also be Hasbro-style management practices taking hold.
Hasbro managers understand boardgames. They don't understand roleplaying games. So there's likely a push to make D&D more boardgame like, so that Hasbro's managers can use profitability check tools designed for boardgames on the roleplaying games line.

 

[Jeff Carlsen]

Honestly, I think Wizards of the Coast is simply focusing on expanding the player base of D&D with everything the have.

The growth of Fourth Edition has probably slowed, and the competition with Pathfinder has become rather intense. So, they're dropping everything with only marginal profitability and slowing down their release schedule to focus on selling fewer, more anticipated products.

On the one hand, the success of the Pathfinder Advanced Players Guide was probably a bit of a wake up call. On the other, they need to get more people to buy the Essentials products and subscribe to DDI.

Or, maybe I'm just overly optimistic.

 

[VictorC]

Or, maybe I'm just overly optimistic.

Yeah, probably that. Unless you have some credible evidence to back up your claims.