Henry
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I think Steel Wind's post was an excellent analysis, and one that I happen to agree with, both as a player of Pathfinder AND 4th edition.
The first two issues? I think WotC could have overcome them, quite frankly. The last four? Those you CAN'T overcome, not in a hobby whose existence depends on grass roots and proselytizers to continue. Lack of a new heavily supported setting? I can't see it, though. What I CAN see, is WotC gutting their OGL support, trying to capture the majority of the market again, going it alone, and getting terrible sales as a result.
I don't consider WotC as TOTALLY ignoring their fanbase, though. People like Chris Perkins & Mike Mearls have made great pains to talk to fans, be visible, and promote through social media the past two years - they haven't been silent. However, it's mostly from the developers we hear -- not the publishers, the brand managers, etc. Hell, the TWO BRAND MANAGERS who actually did come on and try to be accessible... well, I won't say they got canned for doing so, but frankly the timing made WotC as a whole look like jerks. First, WotC acts like they got caught with their proverbial pants down when they realized just how "open" the OGL was; then, Linnae and Scott pushed for a friendlier GSL in the absence of OGL, and get almost no concessions; then, BAM, Linnae's gone, and later BAM, Scott's gone. Yeah, not really friendly to a fanbase of grognards and die-hard kitbashers that they need as their proselytizers. Anyway, I digress on an old issue.
The main cause I see is that the more the holder of D&D does to encourage trust from its fanbase, then the more that fanbase returns that respect with sales and popularity. The more they dodge their fan communities, and do things to shore up piracy and IP rights at the expense of convenience of paying customers, then the more that group of mouthpieces says, "screw you, we're going where we're appreciated."
I enjoy the system of 4E, I was a regular book buyer, monthly subscriber at my ten bucks a month -- but over the course of my support, they stopped producing anything but essentials-based stuff, they redesigned very useful web resources to be difficult to use, stopped updating material, and finally took a useful tool and turned it online-only. I canceled in November and haven't looked back. They don't offer me convenience and a reason to see them as more than a business, I don't offer money. Simple.
The first two issues? I think WotC could have overcome them, quite frankly. The last four? Those you CAN'T overcome, not in a hobby whose existence depends on grass roots and proselytizers to continue. Lack of a new heavily supported setting? I can't see it, though. What I CAN see, is WotC gutting their OGL support, trying to capture the majority of the market again, going it alone, and getting terrible sales as a result.
I don't consider WotC as TOTALLY ignoring their fanbase, though. People like Chris Perkins & Mike Mearls have made great pains to talk to fans, be visible, and promote through social media the past two years - they haven't been silent. However, it's mostly from the developers we hear -- not the publishers, the brand managers, etc. Hell, the TWO BRAND MANAGERS who actually did come on and try to be accessible... well, I won't say they got canned for doing so, but frankly the timing made WotC as a whole look like jerks. First, WotC acts like they got caught with their proverbial pants down when they realized just how "open" the OGL was; then, Linnae and Scott pushed for a friendlier GSL in the absence of OGL, and get almost no concessions; then, BAM, Linnae's gone, and later BAM, Scott's gone. Yeah, not really friendly to a fanbase of grognards and die-hard kitbashers that they need as their proselytizers. Anyway, I digress on an old issue.
The main cause I see is that the more the holder of D&D does to encourage trust from its fanbase, then the more that fanbase returns that respect with sales and popularity. The more they dodge their fan communities, and do things to shore up piracy and IP rights at the expense of convenience of paying customers, then the more that group of mouthpieces says, "screw you, we're going where we're appreciated."
I enjoy the system of 4E, I was a regular book buyer, monthly subscriber at my ten bucks a month -- but over the course of my support, they stopped producing anything but essentials-based stuff, they redesigned very useful web resources to be difficult to use, stopped updating material, and finally took a useful tool and turned it online-only. I canceled in November and haven't looked back. They don't offer me convenience and a reason to see them as more than a business, I don't offer money. Simple.