To say something is just around the corner is to say it is close, and considering all of the low-brow slavering of oh-so-obvious triumphant rise of 5e to burn away its pale ancestor, its not a bad bet to make that he's in with that crowd. Which means he's painfully and objectively wrong.
Evidence? You put forward an interesting analysis, but it's still just your opinion - your claim of him being "painfully
and objectively wrong" fails.
Since you suggest those who "don't like" this idea behave as ignorant children and pretend that we aren't hearing it, a typical image thrown to imply another party is willfully ignoring the truth, I am going to bet your probably with him. I could be wrong of course: a lack of tone and body language changes a lot, but since we are going through a spitefully stupid cultural phase I have long since given up giving people the benefit of the doubt. If I am wrong in this regard, I apologize in advance.
I strongly suspect you're wrong. My guess is that ForeverSlayer wanted to just discuss the fate of the Realms, without getting into the 5e nonsense.
For those of you who think 4th Edition is entering a death spiral (a term slapped onto it not a year after its launch, I might add) and is coming close to being replaced with a new e, I would like to draw your attention to a single fact: 4e was in development for at least 2 years.
Doesn't mean that 5e will be. Also, it doesn't mean that WotC were going "full steam ahead" on 4e for those full years - there were still plenty of 3e books released in those days. Frankly, I suspect several of the key figures at WotC had a folder on their computers containing random 5e thoughts and ideas
even before 4e was released.
It was started in early 2005, and released in mid 08, two years of development with a year in between for printing and making a back catalogue. If 5e was close, as in, mid-2012 close, it would mean that it began development sometime in 2009... 2009 being the second year of the edition and being developed right alongside Dark Sun and the PHB3, both widely regarded as peaks of the system so far. It would mean they literally did not wait a full year to start a new edition. If your instead now moving the goal-posts to 2013, think again. This means they began at the start of one of their most critically acclaimed years. This means they where already jumping ship before they had a chance to see how their experiments with Dark Sun and PHB3 paid off. So now you have to think "Well, duh. I always said 2014." Well then, you'd be about as smart as brick, because that means that they began making a new edition the year after everyone went utterly gaga over Dark Sun and PHB3, and the Essentials stuff was just cooling for consumption. This would mean that you believe WotC so stupid that they would sink the ship just after it came into port.
Now this
is an interesting analysis. The key mistake you're making, though, is thinking that "critical acclaim" has anything to do with the release of the new edition. It's all down to sales numbers.
So, Dark Sun and PHB3 are irrelevant - by this point we're deep into the edition so sales numbers will automatically be faltering. But that's fine - at that time they were working on Essentials to "plug the gap". So, yes, I don't think they'd be working full-time on 5e while developing Essentials.
However, I do think Essentials, and especially the Red Box, are largely regarded as failures at WotC. These products (especially Red Box) were intended to draw in large numbers of new players, especially lapsed players. I don't believe they've done that - they've got a few, but "large numbers"?
I suspect WotC knew this might happen, and knew fairly quickly that Red Box hadn't solved all their problems, and I suspect they had a backup plan. So I wouldn't be surprised if they had 5e waiting in the wings, and fast-tracked development almost immediately after Essentials hit.
Two years development + one year for printing, counted from 2010 is... 2013. Though as I said, I wouldn't be at all surprised if they fast-tracked it for release in 2012.
(I agree that would be a mistake. IMO, they should be trying to find some way to get at least two more years from 4e.)
Everyone spit blood over DDI and the New Builder. Now that the New Builder works fine and Dragon has had a string of good articles, no one has said anything. Other than to bring up tirelessly how the new CB and Dragon slacking justifies their hate.
This is not true. There maybe hasn't been the acclaim you would like to see, but people
have commented about it getting better. I can provide references if you like, although my comment to that effect almost counts as damning with faint praise.
Oh, and also: the poor state of the Character and Monster Builders at release almost feel to me like the team there had
really taken their eye off the ball, almost as if they're working on something else instead. Now, that could be the VTT, of course, but the Builders are the heart of the DDI, with especially the CB being
the key app. It doesn't make sense to de-prioritise that in favour of something that is certainly nice, but very definitely peripheral.
Furthermore to give in and edition jump the instant things look bad would be suicide. Why? There is a veritable hoard of bottom feeders in the so-called fanbase telling everyone just how greedy, stupid, and cowardly WotC and how likely they are to jump ship. To do so would vindicate the hysteric snarling of the bottom feeders that they were just a bunch of talentless hacks trying to dupe sheeple out of money all along, and the fanbase would collapse like the rotted wood its become. The groundless perception of this alone was enough to generate enough momentum to create a parasite company that is apparently outselling WotC at this point.
There's no "veritable horde", there's a very few. And in any case, "bottom feeders" isn't called for.
As for "parasite company", in what way does that apply? Paizo have taken an abandoned IP, streamlined and fixed it, and then taken the risk of literally betting the company on publishing it, using a license that not only allows this, but was
specifically designed to allow it.
It's a shame you ruined what was an interesting analysis with this... actually, I can't describe it without incurring a ban, so I won't.