Mercurius
Legend
First, let's look at a list of announced but unreleased 4E books - not including gimmicky stuff like cards and tiles, or board games:
2011
JULY (0)
AUGUST (1): Neverwinter Nights Campaign Guide
SEPTEMBER (2): Mordenkainen's ME; The Madness of Gardmore Abbey
OCTOBER (0)
NOVEMBER (1): Heroes of the Feywild
DECEMBER (1): Book of Vile Darkness
There's one book announced for February, 2012--Elemental Hero's Handbook--but I'll keep this discussion to 2011.
So that's only five books in the second half of 2011, or a bit less than one book per month. Now let's compare that to two years ago (why two? because last year was Essentials and was a bit of an outlier):
2009
JULY (3): Eberron CG, Divine Power, Seekers of the Ashen Crown
AUGUST (1): Adventurer's Vault 2
SEPTEMBER (3): Revenge of the Giants, Dragon Magazine Annual, DMG 2
OCTOBER (2): Primal Power, Prince of Undeath
NOVEMBER (1): Draconomicon - Metallic Dragons
DECEMBER (1): The Plane Below - Elemental Chaos
That's eleven books, more than twice as much - and almost two books a month. Now we could say that 2009 had an unusually high output, but that isn't really the case - it was rather typical of WotC's D&D output, and maybe less than the height of 3.5.
So we've gone from almost two new books a month to less than one. Now this massive reduction could result from any one of a number of factors:
- Greater focus on DDI
- Greater focus on D&D-related products like the box sets
- Completion of the "core product line" cycle
None of these factors negate the possibility that WotC is planning to publish 5E in the next year or two - certainly no sooner than next summer, or four years after 4E came out (four years of 4E?). In other words, the hyperbole about only three years of 4E can stop - it will be at least four, maybe five, and 5E can still be seen as being "on the horizon."
Furthermore, in my opinion it is becoming more and more clear that what we're seeing in the Mearls article are a series of "5E Design Ruminations." This doesn't mean he has it all figured out and we're going to see the 5E Player's Handbook at GenCon or even next June, but it is obvious that he is actively thinking about D&D from the ground up, getting feedback from others, and possibly working on rudimentary design work for 5E.
If you think this is far-fetched or speculative, remember that Mike Mearls is the Main Guy at WotC's D&D branch, which means that it is his job to think about the next step of the game. The question is not if but when. Even if 5E isn't coming out for three or four years, Mearls has to be thinking about it - which he obviously he is.
When I wrote the post a few weeks ago asking if 5E was "on the horizon," I was thinking 1-3 years. I still maintain that this is the realistic range - that it could be as soon as next year, but more likely in two years, and certainly within three years.
Now it could be that we won't see a formal "5E," although given the initial profitability of a new edition I think that is unlikely. If faced with choosing between selling hundreds of thousands of new core rulebooks or avoiding the nerdrage of a few thousand folks screaming about wasting thousands of dollars on 4E product (most of whom will quietly pre-order the 5E books on Amazon), I think they'll pick the former.
In some sense 5E is risky. But it is and it isn't. There are those that like new editions and will go with the flow of whatever the latest version of D&D is. I would even hazard that this is the majority, or at least a sizable portion, of the D&D player population. There are those that might come back to D&D after a hiatus - every edition always has "born agains" - I was one with both 3E and 4E. There are those that are forever "lost" to Pathfinder or a retro-clone, and probably even those that will stick with 4E. But 5E has to be able to convert enough 4E players and bring in a bunch of new (and lapsed) players, and perhaps steal a few folks from other versions of the game.
But more than numbers, what 5E has to do is foster a healthy community that loves the game. This hasn't been the case with 4E. Well, there are those of us who enjoy 4E, but few, I would say, that truly love it - at least on the same level as Pathfinder Love or, at its height, 3Love.
All of this means that WotC must tread very carefully with 5E. They don't want to blow it! In order to hit all the right spots, I would say they need to accomplish the following:
- Make 5E somewhat backwards compatible with 4E, or at least easily convertible
- Make a modular game - the complexity dial that Mearls has been talking about
- Re-capture a "classic D&D" feel to the core game, in terms of aesthetics (art), fluff, and crunch
- Please various constituencies - the Faithful, the Lapsed, the Converted, and attract the New
- Release the game not too soon and not too late
All of these points, and others, are worth discussing and we'd all likely have our own take on what they entail, but I would just briefly comment on the last -that is, the timeframe of 5E's release. "Too soon" would be now, or yesterday, or maybe next year. But it wouldn't be in 2013 or 2014, and it may not even be next year. A four-year edition cycle, you say? Isn't that way too short? Not in today's world. This isn't the 20th century - it isn't even the Aughties. We live in an information-rich environment where things change quickly. Now we also live in a recessed economy which probably won't be getting better anytime soon. Now unless it completely crashes, however, people will continue to buy lower-end frivolities and entertainments, not even in spite of a depressed economy but because of it.
"Too soon" has less to do with timeframe and more to do with the game itself. In other words, the loaf needs to come out of the oven when it is done cooking - whether that is in 2012, 2014, or 2018.
To put it another way, what WotC needs to keep in mind more than any other factor - including those listed above - is that 5E should be a great product, and one that is holistic, vital, healthy, and without major issues to work out.
And let us make no mistake - the loaf is in the oven. Unless WotC are masters of subterfuge and they have somehow managed to conceal massive playtesting, I highly doubt that 5E will come out at the four-year mark of 4E, in June of 2012. Unless, of course, we get a GenCon announcement. But I'm thinking we're a bit further away, that 2013 is the year. We might get something in GenCon like, "We've been thinking about where to take the game," or even "5E is in early planning stages," but I highly doubt "5E is basically complete and will be published in June of 2012."
If we don't get anything at GenCon, we're probably at least two years away. If we do get something at GenCon, we're probably 1-2 years away.
2011
JULY (0)
AUGUST (1): Neverwinter Nights Campaign Guide
SEPTEMBER (2): Mordenkainen's ME; The Madness of Gardmore Abbey
OCTOBER (0)
NOVEMBER (1): Heroes of the Feywild
DECEMBER (1): Book of Vile Darkness
There's one book announced for February, 2012--Elemental Hero's Handbook--but I'll keep this discussion to 2011.
So that's only five books in the second half of 2011, or a bit less than one book per month. Now let's compare that to two years ago (why two? because last year was Essentials and was a bit of an outlier):
2009
JULY (3): Eberron CG, Divine Power, Seekers of the Ashen Crown
AUGUST (1): Adventurer's Vault 2
SEPTEMBER (3): Revenge of the Giants, Dragon Magazine Annual, DMG 2
OCTOBER (2): Primal Power, Prince of Undeath
NOVEMBER (1): Draconomicon - Metallic Dragons
DECEMBER (1): The Plane Below - Elemental Chaos
That's eleven books, more than twice as much - and almost two books a month. Now we could say that 2009 had an unusually high output, but that isn't really the case - it was rather typical of WotC's D&D output, and maybe less than the height of 3.5.
So we've gone from almost two new books a month to less than one. Now this massive reduction could result from any one of a number of factors:
- Greater focus on DDI
- Greater focus on D&D-related products like the box sets
- Completion of the "core product line" cycle
None of these factors negate the possibility that WotC is planning to publish 5E in the next year or two - certainly no sooner than next summer, or four years after 4E came out (four years of 4E?). In other words, the hyperbole about only three years of 4E can stop - it will be at least four, maybe five, and 5E can still be seen as being "on the horizon."
Furthermore, in my opinion it is becoming more and more clear that what we're seeing in the Mearls article are a series of "5E Design Ruminations." This doesn't mean he has it all figured out and we're going to see the 5E Player's Handbook at GenCon or even next June, but it is obvious that he is actively thinking about D&D from the ground up, getting feedback from others, and possibly working on rudimentary design work for 5E.
If you think this is far-fetched or speculative, remember that Mike Mearls is the Main Guy at WotC's D&D branch, which means that it is his job to think about the next step of the game. The question is not if but when. Even if 5E isn't coming out for three or four years, Mearls has to be thinking about it - which he obviously he is.
When I wrote the post a few weeks ago asking if 5E was "on the horizon," I was thinking 1-3 years. I still maintain that this is the realistic range - that it could be as soon as next year, but more likely in two years, and certainly within three years.
Now it could be that we won't see a formal "5E," although given the initial profitability of a new edition I think that is unlikely. If faced with choosing between selling hundreds of thousands of new core rulebooks or avoiding the nerdrage of a few thousand folks screaming about wasting thousands of dollars on 4E product (most of whom will quietly pre-order the 5E books on Amazon), I think they'll pick the former.
In some sense 5E is risky. But it is and it isn't. There are those that like new editions and will go with the flow of whatever the latest version of D&D is. I would even hazard that this is the majority, or at least a sizable portion, of the D&D player population. There are those that might come back to D&D after a hiatus - every edition always has "born agains" - I was one with both 3E and 4E. There are those that are forever "lost" to Pathfinder or a retro-clone, and probably even those that will stick with 4E. But 5E has to be able to convert enough 4E players and bring in a bunch of new (and lapsed) players, and perhaps steal a few folks from other versions of the game.
But more than numbers, what 5E has to do is foster a healthy community that loves the game. This hasn't been the case with 4E. Well, there are those of us who enjoy 4E, but few, I would say, that truly love it - at least on the same level as Pathfinder Love or, at its height, 3Love.
All of this means that WotC must tread very carefully with 5E. They don't want to blow it! In order to hit all the right spots, I would say they need to accomplish the following:
- Make 5E somewhat backwards compatible with 4E, or at least easily convertible
- Make a modular game - the complexity dial that Mearls has been talking about
- Re-capture a "classic D&D" feel to the core game, in terms of aesthetics (art), fluff, and crunch
- Please various constituencies - the Faithful, the Lapsed, the Converted, and attract the New
- Release the game not too soon and not too late
All of these points, and others, are worth discussing and we'd all likely have our own take on what they entail, but I would just briefly comment on the last -that is, the timeframe of 5E's release. "Too soon" would be now, or yesterday, or maybe next year. But it wouldn't be in 2013 or 2014, and it may not even be next year. A four-year edition cycle, you say? Isn't that way too short? Not in today's world. This isn't the 20th century - it isn't even the Aughties. We live in an information-rich environment where things change quickly. Now we also live in a recessed economy which probably won't be getting better anytime soon. Now unless it completely crashes, however, people will continue to buy lower-end frivolities and entertainments, not even in spite of a depressed economy but because of it.
"Too soon" has less to do with timeframe and more to do with the game itself. In other words, the loaf needs to come out of the oven when it is done cooking - whether that is in 2012, 2014, or 2018.
To put it another way, what WotC needs to keep in mind more than any other factor - including those listed above - is that 5E should be a great product, and one that is holistic, vital, healthy, and without major issues to work out.
And let us make no mistake - the loaf is in the oven. Unless WotC are masters of subterfuge and they have somehow managed to conceal massive playtesting, I highly doubt that 5E will come out at the four-year mark of 4E, in June of 2012. Unless, of course, we get a GenCon announcement. But I'm thinking we're a bit further away, that 2013 is the year. We might get something in GenCon like, "We've been thinking about where to take the game," or even "5E is in early planning stages," but I highly doubt "5E is basically complete and will be published in June of 2012."
If we don't get anything at GenCon, we're probably at least two years away. If we do get something at GenCon, we're probably 1-2 years away.