Comtemplating the Mearls articles - thinking out loud or 5E Design Ruminations?

[Mercurius]

First, let's look at a list of announced but unreleased 4E books - not including gimmicky stuff like cards and tiles, or board games:

2011
JULY (0)
AUGUST (1): Neverwinter Nights Campaign Guide
SEPTEMBER (2): Mordenkainen's ME; The Madness of Gardmore Abbey
OCTOBER (0)
NOVEMBER (1): Heroes of the Feywild
DECEMBER (1): Book of Vile Darkness

There's one book announced for February, 2012--Elemental Hero's Handbook--but I'll keep this discussion to 2011.

So that's only five books in the second half of 2011, or a bit less than one book per month. Now let's compare that to two years ago (why two? because last year was Essentials and was a bit of an outlier):

2009
JULY (3): Eberron CG, Divine Power, Seekers of the Ashen Crown
AUGUST (1): Adventurer's Vault 2
SEPTEMBER (3): Revenge of the Giants, Dragon Magazine Annual, DMG 2
OCTOBER (2): Primal Power, Prince of Undeath
NOVEMBER (1): Draconomicon - Metallic Dragons
DECEMBER (1): The Plane Below - Elemental Chaos

That's eleven books, more than twice as much - and almost two books a month. Now we could say that 2009 had an unusually high output, but that isn't really the case - it was rather typical of WotC's D&D output, and maybe less than the height of 3.5.

So we've gone from almost two new books a month to less than one. Now this massive reduction could result from any one of a number of factors:

- Greater focus on DDI
- Greater focus on D&D-related products like the box sets
- Completion of the "core product line" cycle

None of these factors negate the possibility that WotC is planning to publish 5E in the next year or two - certainly no sooner than next summer, or four years after 4E came out (four years of 4E?). In other words, the hyperbole about only three years of 4E can stop - it will be at least four, maybe five, and 5E can still be seen as being "on the horizon."

Furthermore, in my opinion it is becoming more and more clear that what we're seeing in the Mearls article are a series of "5E Design Ruminations." This doesn't mean he has it all figured out and we're going to see the 5E Player's Handbook at GenCon or even next June, but it is obvious that he is actively thinking about D&D from the ground up, getting feedback from others, and possibly working on rudimentary design work for 5E.

If you think this is far-fetched or speculative, remember that Mike Mearls is the Main Guy at WotC's D&D branch, which means that it is his job to think about the next step of the game. The question is not if but when. Even if 5E isn't coming out for three or four years, Mearls has to be thinking about it - which he obviously he is.

When I wrote the post a few weeks ago asking if 5E was "on the horizon," I was thinking 1-3 years. I still maintain that this is the realistic range - that it could be as soon as next year, but more likely in two years, and certainly within three years.

Now it could be that we won't see a formal "5E," although given the initial profitability of a new edition I think that is unlikely. If faced with choosing between selling hundreds of thousands of new core rulebooks or avoiding the nerdrage of a few thousand folks screaming about wasting thousands of dollars on 4E product (most of whom will quietly pre-order the 5E books on Amazon), I think they'll pick the former.

In some sense 5E is risky. But it is and it isn't. There are those that like new editions and will go with the flow of whatever the latest version of D&D is. I would even hazard that this is the majority, or at least a sizable portion, of the D&D player population. There are those that might come back to D&D after a hiatus - every edition always has "born agains" - I was one with both 3E and 4E. There are those that are forever "lost" to Pathfinder or a retro-clone, and probably even those that will stick with 4E. But 5E has to be able to convert enough 4E players and bring in a bunch of new (and lapsed) players, and perhaps steal a few folks from other versions of the game.

But more than numbers, what 5E has to do is foster a healthy community that loves the game. This hasn't been the case with 4E. Well, there are those of us who enjoy 4E, but few, I would say, that truly love it - at least on the same level as Pathfinder Love or, at its height, 3Love.

All of this means that WotC must tread very carefully with 5E. They don't want to blow it! In order to hit all the right spots, I would say they need to accomplish the following:

- Make 5E somewhat backwards compatible with 4E, or at least easily convertible
- Make a modular game - the complexity dial that Mearls has been talking about
- Re-capture a "classic D&D" feel to the core game, in terms of aesthetics (art), fluff, and crunch
- Please various constituencies - the Faithful, the Lapsed, the Converted, and attract the New
- Release the game not too soon and not too late

All of these points, and others, are worth discussing and we'd all likely have our own take on what they entail, but I would just briefly comment on the last -that is, the timeframe of 5E's release. "Too soon" would be now, or yesterday, or maybe next year. But it wouldn't be in 2013 or 2014, and it may not even be next year. A four-year edition cycle, you say? Isn't that way too short? Not in today's world. This isn't the 20th century - it isn't even the Aughties. We live in an information-rich environment where things change quickly. Now we also live in a recessed economy which probably won't be getting better anytime soon. Now unless it completely crashes, however, people will continue to buy lower-end frivolities and entertainments, not even in spite of a depressed economy but because of it.

"Too soon" has less to do with timeframe and more to do with the game itself. In other words, the loaf needs to come out of the oven when it is done cooking - whether that is in 2012, 2014, or 2018.

To put it another way, what WotC needs to keep in mind more than any other factor - including those listed above - is that 5E should be a great product, and one that is holistic, vital, healthy, and without major issues to work out.

And let us make no mistake - the loaf is in the oven. Unless WotC are masters of subterfuge and they have somehow managed to conceal massive playtesting, I highly doubt that 5E will come out at the four-year mark of 4E, in June of 2012. Unless, of course, we get a GenCon announcement. But I'm thinking we're a bit further away, that 2013 is the year. We might get something in GenCon like, "We've been thinking about where to take the game," or even "5E is in early planning stages," but I highly doubt "5E is basically complete and will be published in June of 2012."

If we don't get anything at GenCon, we're probably at least two years away. If we do get something at GenCon, we're probably 1-2 years away.

 

[billd91]

And let us make no mistake - the loaf is in the oven.

The loaf is always in the oven for any game that will eventually have another edition. That's true the moment a new edition goes out the door.

 

[Reynard]

I have a question: if 4E were a big enough "failure" to require 5E so soon, why would WotC keep the same guy in charge of D&D?

 

[nedjer]

Modular to enable re-design and content switching, easy auto and manual switching of rules and clusters of rules, quick to play, tablet ready/ optimised, lots of visual content . . . you can't do much of that with a book or PDF, nor easily sell digital objects or advancement subscriptions. So I kind of expect 5e round about six months after decent 10'' tablets hit $250. Maybe mid to late 2012.

 

[Jan van Leyden]

The more the community discusses about this and the more I try to word my thoughts about this edition thing, the more I believe this "E-think" to be outdated.

What about D&D going editionless in 2012?

The game won't develop in editions anymore, but in continuous digital updates. Players buy in via an intro book plus rules compendium and maintain their D&D via DDI plus hardware like tiles and tokens, maybe miniatures.

The explanation part of the books remain valid, the definition parts get supplanted by the database.

Each group defines its own "snapshot" of rules they use.

The only disadvantage is the end of edition wars - how shall the zealots spend their time with?

 

[Umbran]

The loaf is always in the oven for any game that will eventually have another edition. That's true the moment a new edition goes out the door.

Or, at least, it should be so. If designers stop thinking about possible new designs, they aren't doing their jobs properly.

I also note - it is always possible to pick out select facts, tie them together with a bit of speculation, and reach any conclusion you want.

For example: the OP talks about the decrease in new titles as an indicator. Never mind that "rules bloat" was widely considered to contribute to the end of 2e and 3e - apparently publishing a lot and not publishing a lot are both indications that an edition is on its way out!

The issue we have is that the data we need for real analysis of whether a new edition is coming isn't available to us. Ultimately, moving to a new edition is a major business decision, and the full financial picture should be considered. Of course, we know diddly about the full financial picture...

 

[Frostmarrow]

I have a question: if 4E were a big enough "failure" to require 5E so soon, why would WotC keep the same guy in charge of D&D?

His insight is still valuable for the next edition. Even the head guy needs to compromise and he might have been proven right. Say Mearls was a strong adventure path proponent but was voted down by the splat book camp. That's just an example but you get my point.

Even if 4E is considered a failure by the brass it is still a great, yet flawed, game that would form a modern platform for any successors.

 

[mudbunny]

I also wonder how many people who are stating that the thinning down of the release schedule combined with the L&L articles mean 5E is coming out are the same people who complained that 4E was releasing too much too quickly and that the game would be better if they slowed down.

 

[drothgery]

I have a question: if 4E were a big enough "failure" to require 5E so soon, why would WotC keep the same guy in charge of D&D?

4 years really isn't all that quick of an edition turnover, except by 1e-2e AD&D->D&D3e standards, it's a little faster than 3.5e-4e, but a little slower than 3e-3.5e (and given than there were 3.5 replacements/equivalents for almost all 3.0 products, I think despite the name we have to consider 3.5 a real edition, not a half-edition; given the huge number of changes, even if individually minor, 3e->3.5e was almost as big of a change as 1e->2e); a lot of other RPGs release new editions much more frequently. If they go five years (announcing 5e next year and begin large-scale external play testing then, releasing it in 2013), then that's pretty normal for WotC D&D or just about any other RPG.

 

[Mercurius]

The more the community discusses about this and the more I try to word my thoughts about this edition thing, the more I believe this "E-think" to be outdated.

What about D&D going editionless in 2012?

The game won't develop in editions anymore, but in continuous digital updates. Players buy in via an intro book plus rules compendium and maintain their D&D via DDI plus hardware like tiles and tokens, maybe miniatures.

The explanation part of the books remain valid, the definition parts get supplanted by the database.

Each group defines its own "snapshot" of rules they use.

I think that may be what we're in for, but it doesn't preclude a "5E" in the form of paper versions of the core rules that form the basis of this modular "editionless edition."

It is kind of like what Essentials should have been (imo): a slimmer, core rule set upon which anything could be cut and pasted. So in a sense what we're calling "5E" may actually be a streamlined version of Essentials - an essentialized Essentials.

I don't think Mearls would be contemplating about this "complexity dial" unless he was actively fishing for feedback and thinking about the next iteration of the game. But again, even if the next edition is editionless, there will still be printings of the "rules as they currently stand" but with the idea being that the true core rules are online.

I have a question: if 4E were a big enough "failure" to require 5E so soon, why would WotC keep the same guy in charge of D&D?

As drothgery said, 4 years isn't that quick, especially when you look at the difference between the nature of information now vs 20 or even 10 years ago.

I personally see 4E as being more of a failure in terms of its impact on the community than as I a game. The game itself was flawed and probably needed another year or so of playtesting and fine-tuning so that, at the least, we would have gotten a 4E that included later monster math, smoothed out skill challenges, etc. But it would be hard to deny that WotC fumbled the PR aspects of the game. The "leaving" of Bill Slaviscek may be an indicator that they realize this. Finally.

The loaf is always in the oven for any game that will eventually have another edition. That's true the moment a new edition goes out the door.

Exactly - which is just rephrasing one of the points I made. That is Mearls' job. But I think the fact that he is making his "5E Design Ruminations" public means that we may be looking at 1-2 years rather than 3+.

I also wonder how many people who are stating that the thinning down of the release schedule combined with the L&L articles mean 5E is coming out are the same people who complained that 4E was releasing too much too quickly and that the game would be better if they slowed down.

Not I. Actually, I tend to feel the more the merrier - more options to choose from. No one is forcing me to buy anything.

On the other hand, quantity doesn't mean quality - just look at the OGL hey-days. We might get all nostalgic about 2000-08, but seemingly forget that a lot of garbage clogged the shelves (which is why I can type the word "Diomin" into Ebay and come up with 34 auctions, or why there are 23 copies of the Diomin Worldbook on Amazon marketplace for as little as a penny + shipping).