delericho
Legend
I honestly don't know if 5e is coming soon. If I were in charge at WotC I would be desperately trying to find some way to keep 4e going for another 2 years before announcing 5e, but looking at the reduced output and the L&L columns...
However, if WotC are about to go ahead with 5e, they would do well to try to build a bit more longevity into the line this time. If only for the job security of the design team - corporations tend not to let people coast on past sales; they tend to ask "what have you done for me lately?"
So...
I think part of the problem with 4e was that the line saturated fairly quickly. Obviously, everyone will buy the core (that is the rules required to play the game; not the "everything is core" line WotC tried to sell), and a significant chunk will probably buy one splatbook to support what they're doing. But sales for "Martial Power 2" are going to be much lower than for "Martial Power", and is there really going to be much market for, say, "Psionic Power", supporting as it does PHB3?
I also think the heavy focus on rules supplements (that are, or try to be "evergreen products") is unwise. Once people have got to a certain depth of options, they just don't need any more. To keep the designers constantly developing new products, they really need some sort of "seasonal products".
So...
Rather than taking the 4e approach of a (relatively) small number of classes in the PHB, each with multiple builds and options all the way up to level 30, I would suggest picking the 15 or so classes with the most traction and putting them in, but with only a single build, a small number of options in the Heroic tier (or equivalent), and then only a single 'option' at each level beyond that.
(The 4e selection of races is actually pretty decent. I would suggest dropping the half-elf and the eladrin, and replacing them with the warforged and the shardmind, since those seem to be the ones that have caught on, but otherwise I think it's fine.)
By doing this, you hopefully extend out the market for splatbooks - with only limited options, people will want the splatbook for the class they're playing, and by going for the 15 strongest archetypes, you've hopefully got people playing all the classes. (Whether the 'splatbooks' are actually books, or power cards, or DDI exclusive, or all of the above is, of course, another debate.)
Bear in mind: anything that isn't included in that core can always be added later - but it will never warrant the same level of popularity or support, barring the occasional "breakout star". And, of course, lack of support leads to lack of popularity, and lack of popularity leads to lack of support... Basically, how much support have the Gnome or Bard had since they got dropped from PHB1? Some, but not much seems the answer, despite the cries at their omission.
With settings, I think there's probably a market for slightly more than the 3 books in the 4e model, but probably not much more. (And certainly, I'd drop the adventure in favour of a bestiary.) There's also probably not much benefit in doing many settings - most people probably only need one, so you're competing with yourself. I think 4e's three settings (FR, Eberron, Dark Sun) may be about the right number, though perhaps came out too soon after one another. (Also, might be wise to let FR rest for a time.)
But finally, there are the "seasonal products" I mentioned. And, as far as I can see, this means adventures. With rules and options, there comes a point where people have enough, but there's always an, admittedly limited, market for adventures.
So, I would recommend WotC take a leaf out of Paizo's book with the Adventure Path product. Provide a monthly high-quality adventure, designed to form part of a six month arc. But produce only a single, fairly limited, print run. Once it's gone, it's gone.
One big advantage WotC would have is that they could then offer a DDI+ subscription that included the electronic form of the adventure, and indeed have it already set up for VTT use. (That might price at $10 per month at the cheapest subscription term.) In keeping with the "seasonal" nature of this, though, the adventures should probably only be supported for a limited time - otherwise you again get to the point where you can safely say, "I have enough". (The same should be true of Dungeon adventures as well, incidentally.)
Of course, the big problem here is that WotC don't have a reputation for doing adventures. Or rather, they do, but it's not the one they would want! So, that very first set of adventures would be absolutely crucial - they must be of exceptional quality for the line to work, even if that means taking a loss on their production.
However, if WotC are about to go ahead with 5e, they would do well to try to build a bit more longevity into the line this time. If only for the job security of the design team - corporations tend not to let people coast on past sales; they tend to ask "what have you done for me lately?"
So...
I think part of the problem with 4e was that the line saturated fairly quickly. Obviously, everyone will buy the core (that is the rules required to play the game; not the "everything is core" line WotC tried to sell), and a significant chunk will probably buy one splatbook to support what they're doing. But sales for "Martial Power 2" are going to be much lower than for "Martial Power", and is there really going to be much market for, say, "Psionic Power", supporting as it does PHB3?
I also think the heavy focus on rules supplements (that are, or try to be "evergreen products") is unwise. Once people have got to a certain depth of options, they just don't need any more. To keep the designers constantly developing new products, they really need some sort of "seasonal products".
So...
Rather than taking the 4e approach of a (relatively) small number of classes in the PHB, each with multiple builds and options all the way up to level 30, I would suggest picking the 15 or so classes with the most traction and putting them in, but with only a single build, a small number of options in the Heroic tier (or equivalent), and then only a single 'option' at each level beyond that.
(The 4e selection of races is actually pretty decent. I would suggest dropping the half-elf and the eladrin, and replacing them with the warforged and the shardmind, since those seem to be the ones that have caught on, but otherwise I think it's fine.)
By doing this, you hopefully extend out the market for splatbooks - with only limited options, people will want the splatbook for the class they're playing, and by going for the 15 strongest archetypes, you've hopefully got people playing all the classes. (Whether the 'splatbooks' are actually books, or power cards, or DDI exclusive, or all of the above is, of course, another debate.)
Bear in mind: anything that isn't included in that core can always be added later - but it will never warrant the same level of popularity or support, barring the occasional "breakout star". And, of course, lack of support leads to lack of popularity, and lack of popularity leads to lack of support... Basically, how much support have the Gnome or Bard had since they got dropped from PHB1? Some, but not much seems the answer, despite the cries at their omission.
With settings, I think there's probably a market for slightly more than the 3 books in the 4e model, but probably not much more. (And certainly, I'd drop the adventure in favour of a bestiary.) There's also probably not much benefit in doing many settings - most people probably only need one, so you're competing with yourself. I think 4e's three settings (FR, Eberron, Dark Sun) may be about the right number, though perhaps came out too soon after one another. (Also, might be wise to let FR rest for a time.)
But finally, there are the "seasonal products" I mentioned. And, as far as I can see, this means adventures. With rules and options, there comes a point where people have enough, but there's always an, admittedly limited, market for adventures.
So, I would recommend WotC take a leaf out of Paizo's book with the Adventure Path product. Provide a monthly high-quality adventure, designed to form part of a six month arc. But produce only a single, fairly limited, print run. Once it's gone, it's gone.
One big advantage WotC would have is that they could then offer a DDI+ subscription that included the electronic form of the adventure, and indeed have it already set up for VTT use. (That might price at $10 per month at the cheapest subscription term.) In keeping with the "seasonal" nature of this, though, the adventures should probably only be supported for a limited time - otherwise you again get to the point where you can safely say, "I have enough". (The same should be true of Dungeon adventures as well, incidentally.)
Of course, the big problem here is that WotC don't have a reputation for doing adventures. Or rather, they do, but it's not the one they would want! So, that very first set of adventures would be absolutely crucial - they must be of exceptional quality for the line to work, even if that means taking a loss on their production.
