D&D 5E Hypothetical 5E Future Release Schedule

[Mercurius]

I'm trying to parse together bits and pieces of what Mearls and Perkins have said (yes, its called "reading into") to come up with a very hypothetical, quite tentative future release schedule for 5E. Let's take a look at what we know:

• Two storylines per year
• Storylines planned out through 2018
• Storylines may or may not include a companion book (e.g. the "Elemental Adventurer's Handbook")
• There's material for at least the start of another monster book (Monster Manual 2/Fiend Folio)
• The over-arching strategy is to avoid bloat
• A Forgotten Realms campaign book has been implied

So not a whole lot, but it gives us something. Now let's look at the release schedule so far:

2014:
July - Starter Set
August - Player's Handbook; Hoard of the Dragon Queen
September - Monster Manual
October - None
November - Rise of Tiamat
December - Dungeon Master's Guide

2015:
January - DM's Screen
February - None
March - Princes of the Apocalypse; Elemental Player's Handbook

While it is hard to extrapolate too much from that simply because it is the first year, and that given the "bloat lite" approach, it is unlikely that we can expect three rulebooks in five months again, we might get some glimmers of what is ahead, namely:

• Storylines in Spring and Fall
• Major release in Summer (GenCon?)
• Gaps of no more than a month at a time with at least something released (incl. "gizmos" ala the DM Screen), with books being no more than 2-3 months apart

So let's speculate. Here's how I could see the rest of 2015 unfolding:

2015 Continued (*Speculative!*)
April - None
May - Elemental Evil Part 2?
June - None
July - None
August - Major release (Forgotten Realms book?)
September - Storyline 3, Part 1
October - None
November - Storyline 3, Part 2
December - None; or major release (Fiend Folio?)

2016 (*Speculative!*)
January - None (or "gizmo" product)
February - None
March - Storyline 4 begins...

Or something like that. Adjust the months here and there, but I think that's the basic gist of it.

There are plenty of imaginable alternate versions--for instance, the GenCon release could be either a monster book and/or the first part of Storyline 3, with part 2 coming in October and only one major release coming in November or December. Or GenCon could be an adventure/handbook combo, like an "Against the Illithid" adventure with a supplement focusing on psionics and Underdark adventures.

Either way, what we'd be seeing is from 3-6 "Storyline books" per year (say 3-4 adventure books and 1-2 supplements) plus 1-2 "major releases," and maybe one or two smaller bits and bobs (like the DM screen).

As far as "major releases" are concerned (a term I haven't seen them used but I'm using just as a handy referent), I'm guessing that these will mainly be either campaign guides, monster books, or the occasional multi-purpose splat (e.g. Unearthed Arcana) - bu not specific or focused "Complete/Power" books; that sort of info will be woven into the supplements for the storylines, and maybe eventually accessible in whatever online tools they come up with.

What say you?

 

[Wolfskin]

As far as "major releases" are concerned, I'm guessing that these will mainly be either campaign guides, monster books, or the occasional multi-purpose splat (e.g. Unearthed Arcana) - bu not specific or focused "Complete/Power" books; that sort of info will be woven into the supplements for the storylines, and maybe eventually accessible in whatever online tools they come up with.

I hope this is their plan. I love setting and multi-purpose books, but overly specific books bore me. I'd rather see thematic supplements for character options, and the Elemental Evil Adventurer's Handbook got me excited about this, so I'm hoping they'll eventually cover different themes such as the Essentials "Heroes of" books.

 

[Morrus]

I'm not too sure what you've added there, but yeah, I'd agree that one or two storylines per year probably means there will be one or two storyline per year, and that Fall seems likely given the first is in Spring.

 

[Mercurius]

I hope this is their plan. I love setting and multi-purpose books, but overly specific books bore me. I'd rather see thematic supplements for character options, and the Elemental Evil Adventurer's Handbook got me excited about this, so I'm hoping they'll eventually cover different themes such as the Essentials "Heroes of" books.

I read a contradiction there because to me the Essentials Heroes books werne't really "thematic" but simply a matter of splitting traditional PHB material into two books. But the "thematic" material is likely going to come in the storyline supplements. For instance, Mearls mentioned a "hypothetical" mind flayer focused storyline, with psionic rules appearing in the supplement. That could be more expansive, with an entire Underdark mega-campaign and rules for Underdark adventures in the supplement, along with the psionic stuff. Or I could imagine seeing a Dragonlance storyline with a supplement for Krynn-specific classes and such, or a Ravenloft storyline with a horror theme book. And so forth.

But the key here is that we're probably not going to see traditional supplements that are divorced from any specific story or setting, but rather that sort of thing will "grow out of" larger storylines - although still be easy to convert to your homebrew. I think this is a way in which they can both encourage people to buy the storylines, but also for people who buy the storylines to also buy the "splat" that goes with it.

 

[Rygar]

I wouldn't recommend trying to figure out the release schedule yet. It's pretty obvious that the marketing plan for 5th edition was "We'll give you the money for the first three books, and if those sell better than 4th edition did then we can talk future budgeting". This is obvious because...

-For the release of 5th edition they had someone else write their launch adventure (Shows limited budget and little faith in ROI)
-After two years since the announcement of 5th edition they still can't state what settings are in, this is a decision that can be done in a one hour meeting since they already know how all of these lines sell. (Shows limited budget and a marketing plan that hinged on launch sales)
-After two years since the announcement of 5th edition they still can't state what the OGL is. (Shows little investment in a marketing plan so they can only have been going with "Lets see how the first three books sell")
-Dungeon and Dragon are tied to a format that appears to have plateaued at a low penetration rate that is most frequently used on a platform that retailers are describing as tanking in sales, while ignoring the fact that their closest competitor not only took their old product and beat them over the head with it, but they did it while successfully using subscriptions for printed material. (Shows no faith in the product line by administration, especially since they're Wizards of the Coast and most printers would likely do the two magazines at or below cost just to get the Mtg contract)

It looks to me like there was very little investment beyond the first three books, not enough faith in the product line to plan beyond those three books, and not even enough faith in the product line to hire people to write the launch adventures.

It also looks to me like 5th edition exceeded expectations by a wide margin and it is very likely that plans for the product line are being reassessed. Hence the cancellation of Dungeonscape, because seriously, look at MTGO, they have a history of moving forward with catastrophically bad software, for them to cancel Dungeonscape almost certainly means that plans are changing drastically.

 

[Morrus]

But the key here is that we're probably not going to see traditional supplements that are divorced from any specific story or setting, but rather that sort of thing will "grow out of" larger storylines.

Yep, I think that's the general message. Though I wouldn't be surprised to see a FR setting book.

I wish they'd do short adventure paths, with a guide for each. Each path could be a different setting. I'd love to play a Ravenloft AP and then a Dragonlance AP, and then an Eberron AP, and then a Planescape AP. It would be a wonderful way to introduce people to settings they've never tried, too.

 

[Mercurius]

Yep, I think that's the general message. Though I wouldn't be surprised to see a FR setting book.

I wish they'd do short adventure paths, with a guide for each. Each path could be a different setting. I'd love to play a Ravenloft AP and then a Dragonlance AP, and then an Eberron AP, and then a Planescape AP. It would be a wonderful way to introduce people to settings they've never tried, too.

I love this idea. So rather than doing what Paizo is doing, with each path being related to a specific region of Golarion, and then with complementing campaign and player guides, WotC could do the same with entire worlds. Given that WotC has openly recognized that part of the strength of D&D is the worlds that have been created, this seems like such an obvious, smart way to go, that, well, it probably won't happen.*

*EDIT: This is the cynical part of me talking. I think as Rygar and I were discussing, with 5E seemingly being a huge success, WotC could be re-evaluating.

 

[Mercurius]

I wouldn't recommend trying to figure out the release schedule yet. It's pretty obvious that the marketing plan for 5th edition was "We'll give you the money for the first three books, and if those sell better than 4th edition did then we can talk future budgeting". This is obvious because...

True, true - but then we have Chris Perkins saying that the sales figures of 5E (or the PHB, at least) would make every New York publisher "pass out." That says to me that not only has 5E done very well, but its done better than expected - and certainly met any goals they might have had.

-For the release of 5th edition they had someone else write their launch adventure (Shows limited budget and little faith in ROI)
-After two years since the announcement of 5th edition they still can't state what settings are in, this is a decision that can be done in a one hour meeting since they already know how all of these lines sell. (Shows limited budget and a marketing plan that hinged on launch sales)
-After two years since the announcement of 5th edition they still can't state what the OGL is. (Shows little investment in a marketing plan so they can only have been going with "Lets see how the first three books sell")
-Dungeon and Dragon are tied to a format that appears to have plateaued at a low penetration rate that is most frequently used on a platform that retailers are describing as tanking in sales, while ignoring the fact that their closest competitor not only took their old product and beat them over the head with it, but they did it while successfully using subscriptions for printed material. (Shows no faith in the product line by administration, especially since they're Wizards of the Coast and most printers would likely do the two magazines at or below cost just to get the Mtg contract)

It looks to me like there was very little investment beyond the first three books, not enough faith in the product line to plan beyond those three books, and not even enough faith in the product line to hire people to write the launch adventures.

It also looks to me like 5th edition exceeded expectations by a wide margin and it is very likely that plans for the product line are being reassessed. Hence the cancellation of Dungeonscape, because seriously, look at MTGO, they have a history of moving forward with catastrophically bad software, for them to cancel Dungeonscape almost certainly means that plans are changing drastically.

Yeah, I think this is true. So while I agree with you that 5E has been a huge success and they are likely re-evaluating how to proceed, the point of this thread was to offer a best guesstimate based upon what we know so far, what has been said, etc. Actually, I think the reason they've been so vague about the plan going forward is that they needed to see how 5E would do. They cut the department down to a skeleton staff, planned a very light product schedule, and then decided to sit back and see what happened. The results were very, very good - which could mean that my projection above--based upon what they've been saying for the past few months--are conservative, at least for 2016 and beyond.

If sales remain good, my guess is that 2015 will follow a pattern similar to the above, but that there will be a gradual build-up behind the scenes, with WotC's D&D department gradually swelling back up to something similar to Paizo. I don't expect that they'll go "hog-wild" and return to the splat-happy days of 3E and 4E, that they'll try to stick with some variation of "quality over quantity." But if the people want it, they'll give it - and it seems the people want 5E.

 

[TerraDave]

Are we speculating again?

Beyond the (FR) storylines, we can make an educated guess for the following in the next couple years:

-MM2/Fiend Folio type book
-FR setting book
-Eventually, storylines and other material to support other Worlds (Greyhawk, Dark Sun, PS/Sigil, Eberon..)
-Resumption of online support, Dungeon & Dragon or at least columns
-Basic Rules updates
-Licensed accessories (which is already happening)
-Ebooks, PDFs

And thats it

Well, and some kind of OGL, which can make everything else moot.

 

[Jester David]

Given the price for the Elemental Evil adventure I really hope it's a single volume product. Instead of the two books of Tyranny of Dragons is a single big adventure.
So it looks like we have that in March and then a second adventure sometime in 2015. I'd say that's around GenCon for the big summer release.

That means the schedule looks like this:
Early 2015 (March): Elemental Evil
Mid 2015 (Aug): New storyline
Early 2016 (March-ish): 4th Story
Mid 2016: 5th Story
Etc.

Each storyline comes with an accessory. And Adventurer's Handbook. This is half-splatbook, half story accessory.
For example, the Elemental Evil Adventurer's Handbook would conceivably be new races (genasi, aasimar, deva) and new class options (primordial warlock, elemental sorcerer, elemental druid, fire and earth clerical domains) along with a description of the elemental planes and related places and figures usable for players but also DMs telling their own story.
You can imagine other stories also having an accessory feel. So the anti-ilithid storyline that takes people into the underdark would be paired with the psionic accessory and information on the underdark and psionics. The faerie adventure would have fey PC options and a description of the feywild. The East-meets-West Kara Tur adventure would have an accessory with samuri and wu jen and a world gazetteer.

Four books a years.
But I imagine they might be able to get away with a fifth book (a third non-adventure). These should typically be a monster book or campaign setting. Alternating between monsters and worlds wouldn't be too bad, as I don't think we NEED a setting or monster book every year. Not when they can just do PDF sales and update the content via web articles and include monsters in adventures or web books.

If I were planning stuff...
For 2015 I'd release a Forgotten Realms book. Because that world has changed enough that fans of it NEED one to explain how things have altered after the Sundering. And the late 2015 or early 2016 adventure would be the Underdark to get people psionics.
For 2016 I'd release Manual of the Planes along with an extraplanar adventure to tie into that, and the adventure can have any extraplanar races left out if the Elemental Evil book.
For 2017 a Monster Manual 2 would be nice, with the best monsters from the first six super adventures, all the content left out of the MM1 and a bunch of other stuff. Call that the Fiend Folio.
For 2018 they should a new campaign setting, likely pairing the 9th storyline with another world. Thus they can justify the new campaign setting as it's also part of the adventure (but not required). I imagine the obvious choices would be Ravenloft, Planescape, or Spelljammer, as players can still have their D&D Expeditions characters transfer over. But they might also do something else to maintain trademarks. They don't want to lose the branding of any of their IP, like Birthright or Mystara or Hollow World. Kara Tur and Oriental Adventures would also work.