D&D 5E Reasons Why My Interest in 5e is Waning

[collin]

Yeah, you're right. If that were the case we'd probably start seeing things like a card game, comic books, audio dramas, miniatures, or maybe even an MMO to try to get more direct and licensing based revenue, sort of like what people have been talking about WotC trying to do to maximize the revenue they can get from the D&D brand.

But is that just trying to make even more money, or a sign that Pathfinder as an RPG is failing in terms of revenue? I don't think anyone on these forums can say for certain.

And what is considered acceptable profit by today's standards? 100% return on investment? 200%? 300%?

 

[collin]

I'm not sure what, or whose, theory you're talking about.

I was speaking to the theory some people have posted in these forums about the reason for 4th edition failing was they basically glutted the market too fast with too much product. For me, I don't buy into that theory. Of course, my own explanation is also a theory. It's just I have a different theory and therefore reject that particular one. In all likelihood, there were multiple factors that went into 4th edition not living up to WotC expectations (at least, again that is what I am deducing based on the fact they totally overhauled the game system and came out with 5th edition).

I don't mind these speculative, lively discussions. It brings in all kinds of different thoughts and perspectives. As long as we keep it civil, it makes for interesting reading and furthers the discussion. I suppose one thing WotC is pleased about is that plenty of people are talking about 5th edition, positive or negative. It's when they don't talk about you at all that it's time to worry.

 

[Shasarak]

With no meaningful potential for growth in the RPG market ( from the little I've heard, it may even have contracted in the last 8 or 10 years - I recall a 2005 or 2007 or so estimate of 20-25 million, today IcV2 seems to think it's only 15), and the D&D legacy no longer under active assault, they're thus free to try to grow the franchise in other areas where there is potential for growth. They can fight tooth and nail over the larger half of a 15 million dollar market (and possibly start tarnishing the brand image again), and make a few million more (compared to the hundreds of million CCGs rake in), but if they can finagle even a tiny slice of the MMO market or get even one modestly successful summer movie out there, it'll bring in tens of millions.

The last figures that I heard for Paizo was 11 million per year. So I guess Wotc was making around 3.8 million and the rest of the market the remainder of that 15 million.

 

[BryonD]

And even then, sales tanked so quickly that we got 3.5 edition two years early.

D&D sales were BOOMING.
People were talking about the "second golden age".
People were complaining that the game was so popular it was stifling innovation in the industry.
People were complaining that WotC "forced" them to rebuy the books. (And yet throngs of people DID rebuy the books)

One thing that NOBODY was talking abotu was the slightest sugegstion of a slow down in sales. (far, far, far less anything about "tanking")

Sales were BOOMING and WotC cashed in on it.

Your entire point is based on an effort to re-write history so that the 4E cycle doesn't look bad in the light of the 3E cycle. And that you take it this far out of reality to say that 3E was "tanking" demonstrates a serious bias and fatal in the analysis.

 

[Manchu]

So you can make more money.

Rather then less money.

Thanks for posting those words in bold. Even so: producing books costs money, selling a license doesn't. WotC is already producing 5E books. They seem to be confident that profits on those books, along with the larger goal of keeping core books on the shelves by justifying them with minimal new releases, will cover/exceed their costs. Producing more than the current trickle, however, would mean increasing costs which may not be justified by the return. WotC doesn't have to do that analysis for a license.

 

[BryonD]

Yeah, you're right. If that were the case we'd probably start seeing things like a card game, comic books, audio dramas, miniatures, or maybe even an MMO to try to get more direct and licensing based revenue, sort of like what people have been talking about WotC trying to do to maximize the revenue they can get from the D&D brand.

Paizo is a well run company.

I would be shocked if PF sales are not down. I have no idea if they are down a little or a lot.

But regardless, you are correct. They know the path this business takes and they are diversifying the brand.

 

[Manchu]

Paizo's core demographic is people who wanted to stick with 3E rules. I really doubt that demographic has changed too much over the years. But some people bought Pathfinder between 2010-2012 because D&D basically did not exist then. Those sales have now slowed/stopped. While that sort of thing would not matter to Hasbro, I'm sure it matters to Paizo.

 

[chriton227]

But is that just trying to make even more money, or a sign that Pathfinder as an RPG is failing in terms of revenue? I don't think anyone on these forums can say for certain.

And what is considered acceptable profit by today's standards? 100% return on investment? 200%? 300%?

I have no clue whether or not Pathfinder is profitable, to my knowledge Paizo isn't a public company and isn't exactly plastering their financials on billboards. I was just making a tongue-in-cheek response to your statement that if they were experiencing a trend of producing products at a loss they would be moving into miniatures, board games, or something else; when in actuality they have been moving into miniatures, card games, comics, audio dramas, and even an MMO that from what I have heard from interviews with the developers has nothing to do with the RPG system at all (it doesn't even use classes or levels in the D20 sense), it just uses the brand and the setting. The expansion of the types of product lines could be an attempt to shore up falling RPG revenue, or it could be a sign of robust RPG revenue allowing them to move in new directions; anything anyone who isn't affiliated with Paizo says on these boards about Paizo's financials is nothing more than conjecture.

 

[BryonD]

4e stayed in first place for 2 years, even while Pathfinder released it's core books. Essentials crapped out and lost the top spot.

Hmmm You need to work that out with Hussar. He said Essentials was a new edition and new editions mean failure.
I'm not sure I agree, but you should ask him.

That said, 4E was on a downward slide.

It took a quarter, but 5e has D&D number 1 again, and it's not even trying hard. The lesson to take from that is don't go screwing with your product and your design goals too soon, no matter what geeks on the internet have to say.

I'm not sure that strong sales out of the gate for D&D mean anything.

Remember, I really like 5E a lot. I'm not critical of the system. And as new release of a great game with THE brand on it, it has huge sales.
That is all we know right now and this is not exactly unpredictable.

I'd guess that D&D's long term brand value is not based on it's TTRPG sales in a give quarter or year or even decade, but on its status as 1st RPG, and it's mainstream name recognition. Neither of those are threatened by a slow pace of releases. Neither were in the least damaged by a two year hiatus, for that matter.

Agreed. Without a doubt.

But that still leaves a ton of room for growing or shrinking sales and growing or shrinking brand value both within the niche market and within the popular culture.

 

[Trickster Spirit]

I agree that the reception was very positive... Up to January. The story shifted from how great 5e is to WotC's communications (or lack there of), their release schedule and lack of PDF/OGL/Digital stuff. From the looks of it, it will only get worse. Ultimately people will just move on at least communication aren't improved, as OGL is released or a release schedule, even anemic, is made public.

Nah, reception is based pretty much entirely on how much individual groups like the game. The vast majority of D&D players aren't on forums and never hear WotC's communications in the first place.

Wizards has been perfectly communicative, and they've made the release schedule public, there's just not much on it.

Two adventure paths a year, and an accompanying player's companion with additional player's options. They've explicitly stated that they think the frenetic 3E and 4E release schedules were harmful to the game and that they're aiming for a slower release schedule with 5E. How far out in advance do you want them to announce products, a full 12 months?

Let's say they humor you, and give you the name of the second 2015 adventure path launching in October, and the May 2015 adventure path, both with accompanying Player Companion PDFs. Would you then agree that they've made their release schedule public?

People still play 1E and 2E, dude, and it's been decades since those last saw official support. 5E will be just fine no matter how much product Wizards releases.

I'm not sure how long stores owners will say 5e is great. This store owner as an interesting take on 5e's release schedule. http://blackdiamondgames.blogspot.ca/2015/01/dungeons-dragons-dilemma-tradecraft.html

Thank you for this link, I hadn't seen this before. It's a fascinating read.

My take is that Wizards sees exactly which way the wind is blowing and aren't going to invest in a moribund market. They printed one last edition of D&D and will provide minimal adventure support to build cross-branding events on and that's it. The tabletop game is a token effort they're keeping alive to portray the brand as resurgent and bigger than ever, but they've withdrawn from the hardcover market almost entirely.

That store owner says he saw six 5E products outsell 300 Pathfinder products 2 to 1 at his store. Sure that'll drop off as we get further away from the core books, but the industry is shrinking and as he points out in the comments that "Boring Pathfinder releases have hurt boring Pathfinder sales." Paizo's saturated the RPG market with their product. They can make either make Pathfinder 2E, move away from tabletop products precisely as Wizards is now, or slowly fade into obsolescence.