Ryujin
Legend
Which points to an even smaller likelihood that they would ever find us. We've been actively looking for them, for decades now.
-
The VOIDRUNNER'S CODEX is coming! Explore new worlds, fight oppressive empires, fend off fearsome aliens, and wield deadly psionics with this comprehensive boxed set expansion for 5E and A5E!
Alien Intelligence
- Thread starter Bullgrit
- Start date
Which points to an even smaller likelihood that they would ever find us. We've been actively looking for them, for decades now.
That was my point, yeah.
Homicidal_Squirrel
Adventurer
Eh... It's possible... possibly not. I'm sure there is some mathematical equation out there that would tell us if the chances of finding an older life form than us is higher or lower than finding a younger one.
Ryujin
Legend
Well there's The Drake Equation. Monkey with the included variables and you get what you want. The only issue is that the values of many of the variables are essentially unknown.
The Drake Equation takes time into account. Of course, we still have to guess at many of the values.
Homicidal_Squirrel
Adventurer
The Drake equation takes overall lifetime of a civilization into account.
But, what it is doing is estimating the number of civilizations out there. It doesn't speak to probabilities that it is more, or less, advanced than ours. I don't think there's an outright equation for that - too many variables. There's merely some general thoughts and statistical reasoning to fall back upon.
Which, by your own acceptance on the distances and time scales involved is a *pittance*, now isn't it?
Remember - to see such a signal, you have to be listening on the right wavelength, and pointing your telescope at the right star, at the time the signal comes to Earth.
SETI hasn't looked at all of space, and isn't looking everywhere, in all wavelengths, all the time. They simply don't have the funding. So, we cannot claim we've been comprehensive, by a long shot.
The Arecibo telescope was used to broadcast a message back in 1974, with a power that could be detected with equipment like ours some tens or hundreds of light years away. But it was directional, and only done for three minutes.
Pessimism and cynicism generate self-fulfilling prophecy.
Ryujin
Legend
Or a realistic understanding of limitations predicts all to predictable results.
Last edited:
No, actually. Pessimism, by definition, over-weights probabilities to one side, and therefore is not realistic. But, pessimists frequently make claim to being realistic.
But - real science now: We only have one planet with life on it that we know about*. That means no statistically relevant sample set, and thus no real understanding of the probabilities. Statements as to what are "realistic expectations" are therefore hubris. The only way to gain more information to decide the question either way, is to *look* for it. And looking for it honestly requires a mind open to the possibility. Deciding you already know the answer is the antithesis of scientific inquiry.
*And, despite the claim that we have been looking for decades - our technology is, at best, only recently really up to the challenge, and the funding has never been there for anything like a comprehensive approach.
Similar Threads
